Two teams from the crowded AFC East will collide when the Buffalo Bills visit the New England Patriots on Thursday Night Football. The Bills (8-3) are tied for the lead in the division with the Dolphins (8-3). They are one game ahead of the Jets (7-4) and two games ahead of the Patriots (6-5).

Kickoff is 8:15 p.m. ET. Buffalo is a four-point favorite in the latest Bills vs. Patriots odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 44. Before you make any Patriots vs. Bills picks, be sure to check out the NFL predictions from SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh.

The renowned co-founder of Accuscore, Oh simulates each game 10,000 times using the SportsLine projection model. Last season, he went 97-81-1 on his NFL picks. And he is on an amazing run in games involving the Patriots. Oh is 16-7 with his last 23 against-the-spread picks involving New England, meaning he's well-qualified for this selection.

Oh knows that Bills quarterback Josh Allen has had success against New England recently. The 26-year-old has 300 passing yards, three passing touchdowns and zero interceptions in three of his last four games against the Patriots. Nobody else has done that more than once against a Bill Belichick-coached team.

Oh also has taken into account that New England has the defense to slow Buffalo. The Patriots lead the league in defensive EPA per game (8.30) and also are one of the best defenses in the red zone. Opponents are scoring touchdowns on just 51.5% of red zone trips. Buffalo struggles in the red zone, scoring on just 76.7% of trips, which is the third-worst in the league.

Now, Oh has locked in another confident against-the-spread pick for Bills vs. Patriots. We can tell you he's leaning Over the total, but he knows a crucial X-factor makes one side of the spread a MUST-BACK! You ABSOLUTELY need to see what it is before locking in any picks of your own.

Who wins Bills vs. Patriots on Thursday Night Football? And what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? ... Join SportsLine right now to see which side of the Patriots vs. Bills spread to jump on, all from the expert who's an AMAZING 16-7 on against-the-spread picks involving New England!