NFC North projections: Where the Minnesota Vikings finish
It's an even-numbered season in the NFL, which has spelled doom for the Vikings of late.
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The past three odd-numbered seasons, the Minnesota Vikings have reached at least an NFC Divisional Round game and won the NFC North title in two of those three years. In the past three even-numbered seasons, however, the Vikings have finished a combined 23-24-1 and missed the postseason in each. We think that trend ends in 2020 with one of the best rosters in the NFC and a realistic chance at winning the franchise's first Super Bowl title.
There were some rumblings that this could be the final season as Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer as he was entering the last year of his contract and there was talk of flirtation with the Dallas Cowboys for their head coaching job that eventually went to Mike McCarthy. However, the Vikes signed Zimmer to an extension right before training camp.
Zimmer has been money for Vikings backers in his six seasons at the helm with a 58-33-5 against the spread record. His teams are just 2-3 straight up in the playoffs, though. QB Kirk Cousins is 1-2 in his playoff career and rarely beats good teams in the regular season (never on Mondays).
Minnesota Vikings SportsLine Projection Model Forecast/William Hill Odds
It's important to keep in mind that oddsmakers are somewhat at the mercy of bettors because if a team takes huge action on any futures odds, the sportsbook will adjust the number. The Green Bay Packers are always one of the most "public" teams in the NFL. Perhaps that helps explain why the Packers are short favorites to repeat in the NFC North Division at William Hill sportsbook and have the same Over-Under win total of 9.
However, the SportsLine Projection Model clearly disagrees as it gives the Vikings an Over-Under win total of 9.4 to Green Bay's 8.2, a 48.7 percent chance of winning the division to Green Bay's 21.0, and a 68.0 percent shot at the playoffs to the Packers' 41.6.
A team can't win a division title in Week 1, but the Vikings' home opener vs. the Packers on Sept. 13 looms large in a regular season that could easily be quite shortened due to the coronavirus pandemic. Minnesota was swept last year in the series and totaled just 26 points but is a current 3-point favorite.
The Vikings weren't immune to the NFL opt-out deadline as they lost defensive tackle Michael Pierce, who was essentially signed to replace the released Linval Joseph. The latter was still an effective player in 2019, while Pierce got a three-year, $27 million deal in free agency but decided to sit out this year because of asthma and other respiratory issues. After losing Pierce, the Vikings traded for Raiders nose tackle PJ Hall, a former second-round pick, but that deal fell through when Hall failed a physical.
Easily the Vikings' biggest offseason move was trading wideout Stefon Diggs to Buffalo for a handful of draft picks, but Minnesota landed Diggs' replacement with the Bills' No. 22 overall pick in Round 1 of the draft in LSU wideout Justin Jefferson. He is +2000 to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Jefferson recently came off the reserve/COVID-19 list.
NFL Pick: Vikings win the NFC North at 10-6.
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