Nationals vs. Marlins Thursday MLB probable pitchers, odds: Stephen Strasburg makes long-awaited return to majors

The Washington Nationals don't win their first and only World Series title in 2019 without right-hander Stephen Strasburg, who had a postseason to remember on the way to winning the World Series MVP award and getting another huge new contract from the Nationals. That deal has been a disaster so far because Strasburg can't stay healthy, and on Thursday in Miami he will take a big-league mound for the first time in more than a year. The Marlins are -145 favorites at Caesars Sportsbook. (See tickets at StubHub)

There's no question that Strasburg, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2009 MLB draft, is one of the best pitchers in the majors when he's healthy with a career record of 113-61 and an ERA of 3.21, but the 33-year-old is often injured. He had Tommy John surgery early in his career and has made 30 regular-season starts just twice.

Strasburg was healthy in 2019, though, going 18-6 with a 3.32 ERA and 251 strikeouts in 33 regular-season starts, followed by a postseason in which he was 5-0 with a 1.98 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 47 strikeouts in five starts. His five wins tied the record for most victories in a single postseason and earned him a well-deserved World Series MVP.

With all the leverage in the world, Strasburg opted out of the remaining four years and $100 million left on his contract following that 2019 season and Washington ponied up for a seven-year, $245 million extension. The contract broke the records for total dollars committed to a pitcher and highest average annual value for a pitcher. Both marks have since been eclipsed.

Strasburg pitched just five innings in the shortened 2020 season before being shut down due to carpal tunnel surgery on his right hand. Last year, he totaled 21.2 innings before undergoing a fairly rare thoracic outlet surgery in late July.

Thoracic outlet syndrome surgery involves removing a portion of the player's rib in order to alleviate nerve pressure. The success rate for pitchers returning from TOS hasn't been as strong as those returning from Tommy John surgery.

Strasburg showed well in a three-start minor-league rehab assignment with 1.98 ERA and 13 strikeouts over 13 2/3 innings between Single-A Fredericksburg and Triple-A Rochester.

"I'm not going to put any limitations on him," Manager Dave Martinez said of Strasburg's return. "We'll see how far we can take him. We'll keep a close eye on him."

Strasburg is set at Over/Under 3.5 strikeouts tonight. That contract is a major albatross on a rebuilding franchise as Strasburg is owed the balance of a $35 million salary for 2022, and then will make $35 million in each of the following four seasons.

Miami counters Thursday with lefty Trevor Rogers (2-5, 5.80 ERA), the runner-up for 2021 NL Rookie of the Year. Rogers clearly has regressed this year, although his troubles largely have been at home, where he's 1-3 with a 10.57 ERA in four starts. He got a win at Washington on April 21, allowing one run over six innings in arguably his best start of the year. 

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