Nationals vs. Cardinals NLCS: Nats slight series favorites on MLB odds & SportsLine simulations

The Wild-Card winning Washington Nationals had never won a playoff series since moving from Montreal, but they stunned the favored Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 5 of the NLDS. Now the Nats head to St. Louis to face the NL Central champion Cardinals in the NLCS starting Friday night. Washington is a slight -115 series favorite on the DraftKings MLB odds as of this writing despite not owning home-field advantage and St. Louis is priced at -105.

It's very possible those series odds flip by first pitch Friday at 8:05 p.m. ET from Busch Stadium. Rather unusual for a team not having home-field advantage to be a series favorite – neither Washington nor St. Louis had it in NLDS against the Dodgers or Braves, respectively, and both were series underdogs. Washington had a better record than St. Louis in the regular season, but a Wild-Card winner isn't allowed home-field advantage in an LDS or LCS.

How unlikely was the Nationals' 7-3 comeback win Wednesday at Dodger Stadium? After L.A.'s Kike Hernandez hit a solo homer in the bottom of the second to give the Dodgers a 3-0 lead behind Walker Buehler, the Nationals were +1300 to win. They were still +1200 down 3-1 in the top of the seventh when Clayton Kershaw entered with two men on. Kershaw struck out Adam Eaton, but then allowed solo homers on back-to-back pitches in the top of the eighth to tie it at 3-3 – Kershaw has never allowed homers on back-to-back pitches in his regular-season career but has now done it twice in his checkered postseason career. Washington's Howie Kendrick hit a grand slam in the top of the 10th, and then the Nats were -10000 to win.

On the exact outcome of the series MLB futures prop, Cardinals winning in seven and Nationals in six are both +425. The long shot at +1500 is a St. Louis sweep.

SportsLine simulations also slightly favor Washington in winning the series 53.1 percent of the time. The Cardinals won five of seven regular-season meetings and took the only previous playoff matchup in the 2012 NLDS. St. Louis is a slight favorite on the MLB odds for Game 1 behind Miles Mikolas. Washington counters with Anibal Sanchez.