After enjoying a breakout Fantasy campaign in 2019, Austin Hooper will don a Cleveland Browns uniform and catch passes from Baker Mayfield in 2020. I don't expect the move from Atlanta to Cleveland to be a positive one for Hooper's Fantasy value, thanks largely to the fact that he leaves behind a Falcons offense that led the NFL in pass-to-rush ratio in 2019.
Speaking of pass-to-rush ratio, the Minnesota Vikings -- who ran at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL in 2019 -- decided to part ways with Stefon Diggs after five years. Diggs was traded to the Bills on Monday in exchange for four draft picks, and he'll join John Brown and Cole Beasley to form a dangerous and diverse group of receivers for Josh Allen to throw to.
Unlike Hooper's move to Cleveland, there is no clear cut answer to whether this will benefit Diggs' Fantasy value. A case can be made for it hurting or helping his value. On one hand, he should benefit from leaving one of the most run-heavy teams in the league, where he saw fewer than 100 targets in two of the past three seasons. On the other, Diggs will catch passes from a less accurate quarterback in an offense that ranked well below Minnesota's in 2019.
Quarterback Comparison
- Kirk Cousins -- 79 percent catchable target rate, 80 percent adjusted completion rate, 14 percent deep ball rate, 119.7 passer rating on deep passes
- Josh Allen -- 75 percent catchable target rate, 72 percent adjusted completion rate, 15 percent deep ball rate, 64.4 passer rating on deep passes
Cousins was the more accurate passer as a whole, but the fact that he was so much more accurate on the deep ball is what stood out to me. People will lazily assume Allen is an upgrade over Cousins for Diggs' deep routes because of his reputation as a 'chucker,' but Cousins had the third-highest passer rating when throwing deep and ranked inside the top-10 in deep ball rate (the percentage of pass attempts that traveled 20-plus yards in the air).
Diggs led the entire NFL in deep ball yardage last season, and 31.9 percent of his targets were of the deep variety. And while there is certainly still hope for Allen to improve on his deep ball accuracy, it's a no contest when comparing him to Cousins at this point. Captain Kirk has posted a passer rating above 100 on deep balls in each of the past four seasons. Allen has posted a 62.9 and 64.4 passer rating on deep balls in his first two pro seasons.
Chris Raybon made a good point regarding Allen's struggles, and one that should offer Diggs' dynasty owners some hope.
"While Allen is viewed as a clear downgrade from Cousins, much of Allen's struggles are on his supporting cast. Check out his numbers throwing to the other four members of the Bills' projected starting five — Brown, Cole Beasley, Dawson Knox, and Devin Singletary — compared to everyone else:"
- Allen to Brown/Beasley/Knox/Singletary: 62.7% completion, 7.6 YPA, 5.0% TD%
- Allen to everyone else: 57.3 completion, 6.5 YPA, 3.4% TD%
It's possible that Allen takes another step forward as a passer in year three. When coupled with a likely increase in target volume for Diggs, that step forward could make this move a lateral one for Diggs' Fantasy value rather than downward.
Target Volume
Diggs was frustrated enough with the run-first scheme in Minnesota to demand a trade midseason last year. He didn't get his trade request at the time, but the squeaky wheel did get the grease in the form of a 167-yard and three touchdown performance the following week.
Several months later, Diggs was granted the trade he requested, but the scheme in which he landed might be all-too familiar. The Bills had the seventh-highest run-to-pass ratio last year, only passing marginally more frequently than the Vikings. The good news for Diggs is that while Buffalo only threw incrementally more often than Minnesota, a much higher percentage of those throws went to wide receivers. 63 percent of Allen's attempts went to receivers, as opposed to Cousins' absurdly low rate of 47 percent. Both John Brown and Cole Beasley were able to top 100 targets last year, while Diggs' 94 led all Vikings players.
Of course, Diggs will have to compete with Brown and Beasley for Allen's attention. Given what the Bills' front office just invested in him, though, Diggs should have every opportunity to be featured.
Takeaways
Even with the potential for an increase in targets, Diggs' Fantasy value is still more likely to drop than rise after this move. His best seasons came with Kirk Cousins throwing him passes, and the dropoff in QB play will be hard to overcome.
Kirk Cousins' Fantasy value undoubtedly takes a hit, and he's not worth a draft pick outside of superflex leagues at this point. Likewise, Josh Allen is now worth drafting at his ADP (QB8 as of this writing), but his Fantasy value is ultimately tied to his rushing more than passing.
John Brown and Cole Beasley both will suffer from Diggs' addition. Allen has barely been capable of supporting two viable Fantasy receivers, let alone three.
Adam Thielen could bounce back to the elite Fantasy WR status he attained in 2018 after a lost 2019 season. It remains to be seen what Minnesota will do to address the receiver position, but Thielen has a chance to be near the league-lead in target market share. His ceiling is capped by what may be the lowest amount of total team targets in the league, but Thielen should again be a PPR monster with Diggs out of the equation.
