The last few weeks have been surreal if you have been monitoring the news. Even before COVID-19 became a present issue in the United States, it was shocking to see what was happening around the world. Then, on Thursday March 12, Rudy Gobert tested positive for the corona virus.
Since that point, several celebrities and pro athletes tested positive, essentially all sports have been shut down, and most responsible citizens have self-quarantined. With nowhere to go, and seemingly nothing to do, sports fans found themselves in a dire situation.
What were we to do to satisfy the itch that seemingly wouldn't be scratched for up to eight weeks? Read? Find new hobbies? Actually interact with our families?
The situation seemed hopeless. We needed a hero. Something, someone -- anything to save us from ourselves.
Shockingly, Bill O'Brien was that hero.
When I received the notification that the Texans were trading Hopkins -- a perennial top receiver in the prime of his career -- to the Cardinals in exchange for picks and a 28 year-old running back with a massive contract, it might have been the most shocking news I'd seen over the past week.
It's impossible to understand Houston's rationale behind the move, but as someone starved for sports news, I was beyond excited for some actual actionable info to react to. Does this mean that for the third year in a row there will be hope for a David Johnson Fantasy career revival? Does this trade drop DeAndre Hopkins' value? Is Kyler Murray now a top-five Fantasy QB? What about Kenyan Drake -- can we expect anything near the ridiculous production he put up at the end of the 2019 season?
This trade affects a lot more players than just the two involved. Thank you Bill O'Brien. Thanks to your madness -- for a little while, at least -- we can distract ourselves from all of the madness around us.
Kyler Murray -- I made the case for Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen as massive values last year, based purely on their rushing upside. My favorite stat to reference when making that case was this: "Since 2000, 25 QBs have rushed at least six times per game over a 14-plus game season. The average fantasy finish was QB7. 80 percent finished as a top-10 QB and 52 percent finished top-five."
I projected Murray to reach that rushing volume threshold too, but couldn't be sure that he would with no NFL evidence. That, coupled with his persistently rising ADP throughout the summer left him off of my "Value QB list."
Well, Murray ended up averaging 5.8 rushing attempts per game and finishing as the QB7 in Fantasy. Jackson and Allen went on to finish as QB1 and QB6, respectively.
Even before this trade, when looking forward to 2020, Murray was someone I planned on targeting aggressively in Fantasy drafts. He upped his rushing volume slightly as the season went on, and his 3.69 percent touchdown rate seemed due for some positive regression. Now, with DeAndre Hopkins added to his already deep and diverse arsenal of weaponry, it is hard to imagine Murray not finishing as a top-five Fantasy QB in year two.
Even in a "down year," Hopkins finished 14th among qualified receivers in yards per route run. He ranked fifth and fourth in the two years prior, and he has reached the two yards per route run mark in each of the past three seasons. For reference, Arizona hasn't had a receiver reach that level of efficiency since Larry Fitzgerald did it in 2015. Expect Arizona to again lead the NFL in four-wide sets and finish near the top of the league in pace of play and pass-to-rush ratio with Hopkins added to the mix of Fitzgerald, third-year standout Christian Kirk, and the trio of 2019 draft investments -- Andy Isabella, Hakeem Butler, and KeeSean Johnson.
David Johnson -- Bill O'Brien rode Carlos Hyde to one of the most forgettable 1,000 yard seasons in recent memory in 2019, feeding him 245 carries on the year. Hyde ranked 11th in the NFL in carries and 14th in red zone carries, despite being traded to the Texans shortly before the start of the season. Lamar Miller ranked inside the top-12 in rushing attempts in 2017 and 18. Now, O'Brien has a running back that he hand-picked and traded away his star receiver for. You better believe that David Johnson is going to be fed carries as long as he's healthy.
Whether or not the former top Fantasy back can capitalize on the opportunity is up for debate. But the opportunity will be there.
Kenyan Drake -- After being acquired from the Dolphins in Week 9, Drake almost immediately assumed a workhorse role for the Cardinals. Despite David Johnson and Chase Edmonds being relatively healthy during that time, Drake's snap rate never dropped below 64 percent in any individual game. He was Fantasy's RB3 from Week 9 on, and his 19.9 PPR points per game during that time would have trailed only Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook over the course of the full season.
With Johnson traded away, it's possible that Drake will assume workhorse responsibilities for the Cardinals again in 2020. Whether Arizona addresses the RB position over the course of the offseason will be illuminating in just how much trust they have in Drake, but he projects for a massive workload at the moment.
Will Fuller -- 2019 was another strong year for Fuller from an efficiency perspective, but an equally frustrating one from a health standpoint. He didn't play enough games to qualify, but his yards per route run ranked ahead of the likes of Hopkins, Kenny Golladay, Keenan Allen, and Allen Robinson.
The Texans will almost certainly add to their receiving corps this summer, but the chance of them finding someone who will come close to replicating Hopkins' production is almost zero. From a volume perspective, there simply hasn't been a receiver like Hopkins. He's the only wideout to finish with a target market share of at least 30 percent in each of the past three seasons. He also is the only one with an air yards market share of at least 40 percent in each season. A massive percentage of Deshaun Watson's targets and air yards are up for grabs now, and Fuller is the most likely candidate on the roster to assume a large role.
Deshaun Watson -- Speaking of Watson, it is clear that he's the biggest Fantasy loser of Monday's blockbuster trade. Watson's QB rating of 98 rose to 105 when targeting Hopkins last season, and he had a 115.9 QB rating when targeting Nuk in 2018. The Texans now have improvements to make to their offensive line and receiving corps before I'd be comfortable trusting Watson as a top-five Fantasy QB.
DeAndre Hopkins -- There is still a path to Hopkins being a top-five or even top-three Fantasy WR, so his value didn't take quite the hit that Watson's did. Still, though, I don't see how this move could be qualified as anything other than an L for Hopkins. As stated already, his volume over the past three years has been unprecedented. Expecting him to repeat that level of volume in a new offensive system takes quite the leap of faith.
The Cardinals didn't have a receiver even top 110 targets last season, as Kyler Murray spread the ball around evenly. Christian Kirk led the team with a 23 percent target market share, and four receivers finished with a target share of at least 10 percent.
Both David Johnson and Kenyan Drake saw at least a 10 percent target market share when starting, too. Will Hopkins be able to dominate the target market share the same way he did in Houston? Is he simply a transcendent talent that the rest of the offense conforms to? Or will we see his volume drop like Odell Beckham Jr. in his first year with the Browns? The answer is probably somewhere in between, which still suggests a drop in targets and air yards for Nuk.
