Ja Morant 25-game suspension fallout: Grizzlies' 2024 NBA title odds improve; Morant now with same longshot MVP odds as rookie Victor Wembanyama

During the NBA Finals, league commissioner Adam Silver said that he had decided on a suspension length for Memphis Grizzlies star point guard Ja Morant, but that he wouldn't announce it during the Finals to take the spotlight away from the Heat and Nuggets. Many in the media took Silver's delay to mean that Morant's suspension was going to be at least half the season. Today, the NBA announced that Morant has been suspended for 25 games due to conduct detrimental to the league, and there has been a bit of a fallout at the various sportsbooks.

The latest suspension, due to Morant being caught for a second time in social media videos with a gun, will come with conditions for his return, the league said. Morant will be ineligible to participate in any public league or team activities, including preseason games.

Reached on vacation, SportsLine Projection Model creator Stephen Oh said there likely wouldn't be a big difference on his Grizzlies 2023-24 projections (coming next week) because there is not much of a drop-off in how Memphis plays when Morant is out versus when Tyus Jones is starting at the point. He's right.

Jones would probably be a starter for at least 20 other teams. For what it's worth, the Grizzlies were 51-29 when he played last year and lost both games when he didn't. Jones led the NBA in assist-to-turnover ratio for the fifth consecutive season, surpassing Chris Paul's four-year run for the longest such streak in NBA history. Jones has led the Grizzlies to a 32-13 regular-season record over the past two seasons as a starter. That equates to 58 victories over a course of an 82-game season. Milwaukee led the NBA this past season with 58. Memphis had 51. Jones is in the last year of his contract, and should have plenty of leverage for a new deal.

That Morant only got 25 games is frankly good news for him. A few offshore books had set over/under game totals for the suspension at 41.5 games. Memphis played its 26th game of the 2022-23 regular season on Dec. 9, to give you an idea for when Morant should be back this year. He might need some conditioning time, however.

The schedule won't be out until August, but I guarantee the league will not put the Grizzlies on the two-game Opening Night national TV slate because of the negative Morant situation. I'd also be totally shocked if the Grizzlies are on the marquee Christmas slate.

Morant's five-year, $194 million max contract is set to begin this coming season. It could have escalated to a supermax if he had made All-NBA this season, but he didn't, almost surely because of the time he missed with his first suspension and injures. His numbers were All-NBA worthy: 26.2 points (a franchise record), 8.1 assists and 5.9 rebounds per game.

One book spokesperson said 25 games was "less than the market expected," so it makes sense in that regard that both PointsBet and BetMGM improved the Grizzlies' 2024 title odds from +2500 to +2200 following the Morant news. DraftKings went the other way but got to the same number, moving Memphis from +1900 to +2200. 

At Caesars Sportsbook, Morant is +12500 to win NBA MVP (there's a new rule that players must play 65 games to be eligible for MVP or All-NBA, but there are provisions; the rule is more focused at teams resting stars 20 times per season). That's the same number as Victor Wembanyama, who has yet to play in the league but will be the No. 1 overall pick next Thursday in the 2023 NBA Draft by San Antonio. 

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