Fantasy Football Week 7: Stats that matter when setting lineups, including an exciting matchup for Jaleel McLaughlin
Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs provides one key thing to know about every team playing in Week 7.
loading...
loading...
If you're starting your Fantasy football draft research or scouring the Internet for Fantasy rankings, you need to see what SportsLine's highly-rated expert Jacob Gibbs has to say. Gibbs uses a data-driven approach that has helped him consistently provide accurate rankings at every position. He has proven to be one of the nation's most accurate Fantasy rankers in recent years -- posting the eighth-most accurate results over the past few seasons, according to Fantasy Pros. Gibbs had the fourth-most accurate rankings in Week 4 and ranks 11th out of nearly 200 experts in terms of rankings accuracy on the year.
Now, Gibbs has projected every team's stats and shared his findings for Week 6 of the 2023 season. He provided the most important research note that he found for every team and matchup to help those setting Fantasy football lineups, building DFS lineups, or placing sports bets.
One player Gibbs is especially high on: Denver rookie RB Jaleel McLaughlin. The Packers have been one of the best defenses to attack on the ground, and McLaughlin is starting for Gibbs in most situations with RB options running thin in Week 7. You NEED to see Gibbs' analysis before you lock in your lineup.
So who are the best under-the-radar players to start in Week 7? And which under-the-radar tight end could explode this week? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' analytics wraparound, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!
We're changing up the weekly content that I'll provide this year, and I'm psyched for it! This game-by-game guide is one of the new installments, along with a weekly Lineup Advice article for SportsLine members.
In this space, I'll provide game information and one key takeaway that I found when researching that matchup. Each team's implied point total and rank will be in parentheses.
If you have further questions about any team or situation for the upcoming week, please feel free to hit me up on Twitter. If I don't see your initial message, you can find me on Thursday nights and Sunday mornings, when I set aside time to answer questions on Twitter. If you turn on Twitter notifications for my account, you'll have a great chance of catching me when I'm available for questions. I'm aiming to have time to take questions two to three times per week throughout the season.
Here's what stood out to me as I looked ahead to Week 7.
Over/Under -- 37 points (opened at 44, meaning bettors have aggressively hit the under this week)
Bucs (19.75 points) -- The Falcons use press coverage more than any team in the NFL.
Mike Evans has been notably better when not pressed in both 2022 and 2023, while Chris Godwin has actually posted slightly better rates when facing press coverage. I don't like this matchup for either Buccaneers wideout, and Evans is who I'm providing the largest matchup downgrade to in my projections.
Falcons (17.25 points) -- No team has a higher situation-neutral (score within six points) opponent pass rate than the Buccaneers (69%). Teams have aggressively attacked this defense down the field in 2023, and we've seen the leash extended a bit for Desmond Ridder and Atlanta's downfield passing as the season has aged.
How I'm approaching this game:
I wrote about matchup specific notes for Drake London and Kyle Pitts in more detail in this week's Beyond the Boxscore Lineup Advice column. If you've missed those, I highly recommend that you add them to your weekly reading. We've been ahead of the curve in that space all year long.
I like both London and Pitts as DFS values and high-upside starts for Fantasy managers who need them in Week 7. There's inherent risk with Atlanta's offense, but this feels like a pretty decent week to take a shot on these two. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier I feel less enthused about, but the Eagles (173 rushing yards between D'Andre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell in Week 3) provide at least one example of team running on Tampa Bay this year.
I'd really rather avoid Tampa Bay altogether. Mike Evans (WR23 in my rankings) and Chris Godwin (WR26) are in play if you need them. We saw Terry McLaurin get past A.J. Terrell and this physical Falcons coverage scheme last week, and his historical splits vs. press coverage are even worse than Evans'. Anything can happen on a week-to-week basis in the NFL. And McLaurin is one of the best receivers in the league, a big game always exists within his range of outcomes, no matter where the matchup comes. The same rule applies to Evans, and Godwin to a lesser extend (significantly lower big play ability available in his role) -- even when in a brutal on-paper spot, these guys are worth starting when you don't have a quality option to replace them.
Over/Under -- 37.5 points (opened at 42.5)
Giants (17.25 points) -- The best way to attack this Commanders defense is with downfield passing, as we've detailed at many points in this space throughout the year. You can take your shot on Jalin Hyatt or Darius Slayton if you like to live life on the edge.
The only reliable source of offense for the Giants is Saquon Barkley, and the matchup is decent. The Giants have only 0.68 yards before contact per rush, which ranks 29th. But 45% of New York's rushing yardage has come before contact, which is a top-10 rate. They've just been terrible all around!
I bring this up because Washington has allowed a lot of room to opposing backs in the trenches. Washington has allowed 1.5 yards per rush before contact, the sixth-highest rate in the NFL. Their stuffed rate (percentage of opponent rushes that do not result in a first down or touchdown and yield less than four yards on first downs or three yards on any other down) is the eighth-lowest, at 40.7%.
Commanders (20.25 points) -- When the score has been within six points, Brian Robinson has registered a 59% snap rate and 33% opportunity rate (the percentage of total team rushes+targets). When trailing by more than six points, those rates have fallen to 40% and 19%. With the Commanders listed as three-point favorites, Robinson profiles as a borderline top-12 Fantasy RB.
Oh, and you know how I cited Washington as being an inviting RB matchup because of their yardage before contact per rush rate of 1.5? The Gaints have allowed 2.34 yards before contact per rush. The next-highest rate is 1.83!
How I'm approaching this game:
I highlighted Barkley because he surprisingly comes in as my RB9 ahead of Robinson (RB11) even with the Giants bringing a lower team total. He's a much safer option than Robinson thanks to his workload, and this projects as a game where the Giants offense could find a bit more success than in the other games Barkley has been healthy for. He's the only New York player who I want to start, although Slayton and Hyatt really could break a big play in this matchup.
Wan'Dale Robinson and Darren Waller are fine plays if you don't have more exciting options, but both have been mostly relegated to short-yardage-only duties. Washington's defense doesn't profile as a matchup where the short passing game will be an emphasis for New York.
Terry McLaurin projects strongly against Wink Martindale's aggressive defensive scheme. The Giants blitz at one of the highest rates in the NFL, and McLaurin has been Sam Howell's guy when blitzed. Meanwhile, Jahan Dotson's target per route run rate has fallen to a measly 11% when Howell has been blitzed. Dotson is not a top-50 Fantasy WR for me in Week 7, I'd rather start Slayton.
Sam Howell is the NFL's most-sacked quarterback, and it would be no surprise to see him take too many negative plays against this defense. For what it's worth, Howell has been slightly below league average in passer rating and has by far the highest sack rate when not blitzed. When blitzed, he ranks seventh in passer rating and has only the second-highest sack rate!
Over/Under -- 37.5 points (opened at 46.5)
Bears (17.5 points) -- Only six teams have a negative defensive rushing EPA, meaning their opponents have added expected points with the rush. Statistically speaking, any time that an offense rushes the ball, it's a win for opposing defenses. The Raiders are one of the six defenses that have actually presented opposing offenses with wins on rushing attempts. In fact, only the Panthers grade out lower according to this metric.
Raiders (20 points) -- The Bears have the ninth-lowest opponent situation-neutral pass rate (55%) and have allowed the 10th-most yards after contact per rush. Chicago has not faced many impressive rushing attacks, yet teams have run at a high rate against the Bears even in close games. That may be because Chicago has the seventh-highest missed tackle rate. This could be the spot where Josh Jacobs finally turns things around as a rusher.
How I'm approaching this game:
The easiest way to attack the Raiders is on the ground. And when attacking through the air, Las Vegas opponents have just a 6.9-yard average depth of target, ranking fifth-lowest. Only 37.5% of opponent targets have gone to the 'out-wide' receiver, the second-lowest rate, per the FantasyPoints Data Suite. This is not a good spot for DJ Moore. Moore has been among the absolute best wide receivers in the league lately and has the ability to break a big play at any point. I have him ranked as the WR17, ahead of Drake London, DeVonta Smith, and Terry McLaurin. But he is without a doubt one of the riskiest players who I'd advise starting in Week 7. If you have an option that you feel more comfortable with, don't let FOMO keep you from taking a safer approach and benching Moore. It's a brutal spot for him from a projections standpoint.
It's looking as if D'Onta Foreman will again lead a split backfield for Chicago. I'd expect the Bears to go to him early and often in order to keep as much pressure off of Tyson Bagent as possible.
Jakobi Meyers has been out-targeting and out-producing Davante Adams lately, but that might change with Brian Hoyer taking over and Davante Adams expressing discontent with his involvement in the offense. This Bears defense is one of the worst out there, so this is a winnable matchup for Adams, Jacobs, Meyers, and rookie TE Michael Mayer. Of the bunch, Mayer may actually end up being who I have the most exposure to in DFS.
Over/Under -- 40 points (opened at 45.5)
Patriots (15.75 points) -- No defense has allowed more yards after contact per rush than the Buffalo Bills (3.8), and it isn't close, with 3.37 being the next-highest rate. Specifically, the Bills have struggled against man/gap rush attempts which is where the majority of New England's rushes have come from. The Pats rank seventh in man/gap concept rush rate, and the Bills have allowed the fourth-highest yard per rush rate on man/gap rushes.
Bills (24.25 points) -- The Bills are one of the six teams that use man/gap rushing more than New England. Only the Rams have a higher rate. Unfortunately, this side of the rushing matchup is not nearly as inviting. The Patriots rank seventh-best in yards per attempt allowed and second in defensive rushing success rate vs. man/gap rushes.
How I'm approaching this game:
This is a tough matchup for Buffalo. Someone will score points, but this is really about as brutal of an on-paper matchup as the Bills could draw. Stefon Diggs has developed much better splits vs. zone coverage, and the Pats are one of the most man-heavy coverage schemes in the NFL and are known for bracketing and quieting opposing WR1's. This could be a spot for Gabe Davis to pop off, as his per-route data improves vs. man coverage.
I don't want to start James Cook in this matchup, especially with Latavius Murray cutting more and more into his workload lately. I'd start Rhamondre Stevenson over him, even with the Patriots implied for far fewer points. That feels wrong, but I don't trust Cook's workload, and unless he breaks one for a touchdown, roughly 10 touches (he's averaging 11 touches over the past two games) isn't going to be enough in this matchup.
Over/Under -- 41 points (opened at 42.5)
Colts (19 points) -- TruMedia has the Browns ranked fifth in defensive rushing EPA, which makes sense when you consider their opponent yards per rush of just 3.5. What doesn't make sense is that the Browns have the fourth-highest missed tackle rate according to TruMedia. The FantasyPoints Data Suite attributes the highest missed tackle in the rate to the Browns. Interesting.
A whopping 93% of Cleveland's opponent rushing yardage has come after contact, which likely has something to do with the missed tackles. But the absurdly high rate says more about how few yards the Browns have allowed before contact. Cleveland has allowed a hard-to-believe 0.13 yards before contact per rush.
So, this is a risky spot for Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss. Both have flashed impressive tackle breaking ability in the past and could bust a long run. Extreme outliers like Cleveland's defensive rushing rates tend to break towards the norm at some point, and that often comes all at once. Taylor could be the one to do it. It's a very risky spot, though.
Browns (22 points) -- No team uses more Cover-3 than the Colts. Their single-high safety looks could lead to a big day for Amari Cooper, who ranks 15th at WR with a 2.69 yard per route run vs. Cover-3.
How I'm approaching this game:
I'd rather not start Jerome Ford, even with the Browns listed as three-point favorites in a neutral matchup, and it's all about Kareem Hunt cutting into his usage. Ford ran just one more route than Hunt in Week 6 and handled 17 rush attempts to Hunt's 12. Ford didn't play a single red zone snap, and three of five Cleveland red zone opportunities went to Hunt. I have Ford ranked as the RB24 and Hunt as the RB27 for Week 7.
Cooper proved last week that he can put up strong numbers even with P.J. Walker at QB. He looks like a fringe top-15 Fantasy WR in Week 7 and is worth a look in DFS as an off-the-wall tournament play. Elijah Moore doesn't bring the upside that Cooper does, so I'll continue to ignore him for DFS. You could slide him into a flex spot if needed. Moore (21% target share in Week 7) continues to see volume.
I have Michael Pittman (WR27) and Josh Downs (WR40) both ranked as viable plays, even against a dangerous Cleveland defense. Both players have strong splits vs. man coverage, an area where the rookie really stands out.
Over/Under -- 43 points (opened at 48)
Ravens (23 points) -- Even if a Week 1 played without Mark Andrews is removed, Zay Flowers has clearly been the 1A target in Baltimore's offense.
Displayed below are his usage rates compared to Andrews' from Week 2 on.
First-read target share -- Flowers (27.9%), Andrews (21.6%)
Target share -- Flowers (25.2%), Andrews (21.9%)
Air yardage share -- Flowers (30.6%), Andrews (21.4%)
Lions (20 points) -- The Ravens are one of six teams with a man coverage rate above 30%. Baltimore also ranks sixth in press coverage rate (66%).
Josh Reynolds has a yard per route run rate above 3.00 vs. both press and man coverage in 2023. He's been super impressive. After being eased back in in Week 5, Reynolds ran a route on 86% of Jared Goff's dropbacks in Week 6. He's locked in as the WR2 on this team and could make noise in this matchup.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's rates vs. man coverage aren't great in 2023, but it's come on only 40 routes. Since the start of 2022, he has the sixth-highest target per route run rate among 82 receivers with 100+ routes vs. man coverage and ranks 12th in yards per route run vs. man.
How I'm approaching this game:
Reynolds ranks as the WR40 for me, ahead of Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Elijah Moore. I want to move him higher than that and trust him as a core bargain in DFS, but Detroit's 20-point implied team total has given me pause. That's the main reason that we have yet to even mention Jahmyr Gibbs or Sam LaPorta. They're fine starts if you need them, but I'm not sure either is 100% and this is projected to be an ugly game with Detroit really struggling to put points on the board.
Flowers and Reynolds are the only two that I have interest in for DFS purposes, although it's worth noting how cheap Gibbs is ($6,200) on FanDuel.
Over/Under -- 44 points (opened at 42.5)
Rams (23.5 points) -- Puka Nacua accounted for 39% of Matthew Stafford's first-read targets in Week 6. It was a disappointing Fantasy performances, but those happen for every receiver. Nacua does not seem likely to go away.
I'm feeling better than ever about Nacua's long-term outlook after discussing it with Matt Harmon and Heath Cummings earlier this week. He and Cooper Kupp should be open often against Pittsburgh's suspect secondary. The Steelers are the only team whose opponents have funneled over 50% of targets to the 'out wide' receivers.
Steelers (20.5 points) -- The Rams have the 10th worst defensive rushing success rate vs. man/gap concept runs but rank fifth best vs. zone rushes. That's not good news for Pittsburgh, who uses zone rushing at the league's eighth-highest rate. I don't love the matchup for the Pittsburgh passing game, either.
The Rams are one of the NFL's softest defenses, schematically. L.A. uses a ton of zone coverage (fifth-highest rate), rarely blitzes (22nd), and rarely uses press coverage (26th). The Rams are content to let opposing quarterbacks beat them by piecing together long drives. That's not a strength of Kenny Pickett's.
Pickett ranks just in line with league average in terms of effectiveness when blitzed, and his average depth of target goes through the roof (9.5 yards, compared to an average of 8.0 in 2023). When facing aggressive defenses that use a lot of press/man coverage and blitzes, Pickett is more likely to take shots down the field to George Pickens and company, which is a good thing. Those are much higher value plays than running the Matt Canada offense as planned.
When not blitzed, Pickett ranks 32nd in passer rating and has an aDOT that is actually below the league average.
How I'm approaching this game:
This is one of the few game totals that has not been bet down as the week has progressed, but it's still not high. Because of the total, I'm cautiously in on Pittburgh pieces if you don't have a better option. Rams games have been good for Fantasy this season.
From what I can tell, the most likely outcome involves lots of targets for Diontae Johnson and potentially lots of punts. I'm avoiding the Steelers in DFS outside of Johnson. And I'm not thrilled about clicking his name. I have real ceiling concerns about Pittsburgh's offense in this (and almost every other) spot.
I have no idea what to expect from Sean McVay's backfield in Week 7, and anyone who tells you that they do (other than Jourdan Rodrigue) is likely lying. Rodrigue seems cautiously optimistic that Zach Evans is doing what he needs to do to earn trust. Personally, I don't feel any confidence in projecting the situation. Evans appears set to be the lead back and have some combination of Royce Freeman, Myles Gaskin, and Darrell Henderson working behind him.
What do we know about Evans? I loved what I found when digging into his collegiate data. He fell all the way to Round 6 in spite of exciting athleticism, which is concerning. Evans then did little to nothing during preseason action and opened the season as a healthy inactive. Brutal.
But, a month into the season, we saw Evans and Freeman flip. Freeman was the inactive RB4 while Evans appeared to have earned enough trust to suit up on game day as the RB3. That's noteworthy -- we have at least one signal that tells us that the Rams do trust Evans on some level. He's intriguing if you are desperate.
Tutu Atwell and Tyler Higbee likely belong on the bench until we see some encouraging usage signals from them. You know where Kupp and Nacua belong.
Over/Under -- 44.5 points (opened at 46.5)
Seahawks (26 points) -- I mentioned that only six teams have yielded positive expected points to opposing rushers in 2023; the Arizona Cardinals are one of the six and have been specifically bad at defending Seattle's favorite type of rushing. Arizona ranks 19th in rushing success rate vs. man/gap concepts but 30th vs. zone. The Seahawks rank fifth in zone rush rate and sixth in zone rushing success rate.
Both Seattle backs have played well this year. Kenneth Walker has improved his game across the board from Year 1 to Year 2, he's been really impressive.
Cardinals (18.5 points) -- The Seahawks rank fifth in Cover-3 usage (46%), but they're a unique zone-heavy scheme in that they also use a ton of press coverage (75% -- 4th).
Marquise Brown has played the part as Arizona's WR1 and put up excellent data (33% target per route run rate and 2.00 yards per route run) vs. Cover-3 this season. Brown's rates get a bit less appealing when he has faced press coverage into Cover-3, though. His rates fall to 27% and 1.86 within that subset. Those are totally fine rates, good even, but it's just a 22-route sample size. Since the start of 2022, Brown has a 110-route sample of facing press coverage into zone coverage, and he has rates of only 13.6% and 1.12 within that subset. Uh-oh.
Brown has 10 or 11 targets in four of his past five games and is an okay bet to get there for Fantasy purposes on volume alone at any given time. Josh Dobbs has not played well lately, and this Seattle defense can be tricky. Hollywood looked good when I initially ran projections this week, but he's been sliding down my rankings the more that I dig into the matchup and consider the bottom to Arizona's range of outcomes. My projections bake in the production that we got from Dobbs and the offense earlier in the year, which is hypothetically a possibility in Week 7 but is far from what we saw without the offensive centerpiece in James Conner available for Week 6.
How I'm approaching this game:
I like what I see for D.K. Metcalf and Smith-Njigba in this matchup. I wrote about the fit for those two, Geno Smith, and Tyler Lockett in more detail in Week 7's Beyond the Boxscore.
No Cardinals running backs for me! And we can finally stop wondering if we should believe in Zach Ertz's usage rates ever amounting to anything -- he split work nearly evenly with Trey McBride in Week 6.
You could give Rondale Moore a look if you are desperate. Moore stands to benefit a bit from Conner's absence (he saw three rush attempts in Week 7. Those three attempts lost him Fantasy points, but Moore went for 50+ rushing yards in the other two games with three rush attempts) and could see more targets in this matchup. Seattle's opponent slot target rate is the third-highest in the NFL.
Over/Under -- 48 points (opened at 52)
Chiefs (27 points) -- I dug into the Chargers defense hoping to find something noteworthy to share and just felt like this is a defense that should be performing better and may be a positive regression candidate. That regression may not hit against Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, though.
With no real matchup note sticking out (the Chargers do rank eighth in press coverage rate and teams have aggressively attacked them down the field, but who can we predictably bet on hitting down the field for Kansas City?), I'll just give a dope stat on Travis Kelce and Isiah Pacheco.
Pacheco hasn't given us a main slate DFS eruption (he went for 27.8 DraftKings points against the Jets on Monday night in Week 4), but the role and game environment against the Chargers could bring it out of him.
It just seems wild to me that Travis Kelce is second on this list while operating as the only proven pass-catching threat in Kansas City. Kelce and Andy Reid are both so insanely good at producing offense. A game script like this one makes Kelce tough to pass on in DFS, even at a massive price tag.
Chargers (21.5 points) -- The Chiefs use press coverage at the second-highest rate (80%) and rank fifth in man coverage rate (32%). Mike Williams has always been the Chargers receiver who sees a huge boost from those coverage types, while Keenan Allen's numbers are elite vs. press, man, and zone coverage. Josh Palmer has picked up the slack (really, he has crushed man coverage on a nearly 150-route sample) with Big Mike been sidelined.
How I'm approaching this game:
The Chiefs are middle-of-the-pack in most rush defense metrics but have not allowed any big games to opposing RBs. It's not a good matchup for Austin Ekeler. The potential shootout is great for Ekeler's projection, but that's more or less baked into Ekeler's price tag. And it's not like the Chargers have a massive implied point total. For reference, Kenneth Walker's Seahawks (26) are implied for way more points than L.A. (21). I'd rather roll with Walker (who is also cheaper) against Arizona.
Palmer is cheap and there isn't much value available on this slate. He's probably going to end up being the Charger I have the most exposure to, even though I really want to find salary to fit Keenan Allen in.
Over/Under -- 45 points (opened at 46.5)
Broncos (21.75 points) -- The Packers have the lowest situation-neutral pass rate (49%) and are one of the six teams with a negative defensive rushing EPA. This defense is best attacked on the ground. The Broncos will surely be happy to oblige after Russell Wilson threw for 95 yards in Week 6.
Packers (23.25 points) -- The Broncos have the highest opponent catchable target rate (89%) in 2023. I'm curious what people think about this stat. If you have a thought on it, please reply to this tweet.
I'll dig into this stat more this offseason, and I may find time to do it sometime soon. For now, here's yet another stat that highlights how easy offense has been against the Denver Broncos in 2023. Maybe we get a big post-bye Jordan Love bounce back?
How I'm approaching this game:
The Broncos run defense stopped the bleeding after an impressive month-long run of generosity to the RB position. Isiah Pacheco was held to 62 yards on 16 rush attempts in Week 6. Denver still recorded a missed tackle rate of 14.5%,and their 16.9% rate over the course of the full season is the only rate above 15%. This is a great spot for the Green Bay run game, and I'd expect Aaron Jones to take on a starring role as soon as he's able to. A.J. Dillon has struggled.
It would not surprise me to see Jones eased into action, but on a week where the RB position thins out extremely quickly, he's still a borderline top-12 option. Christian Watson is really the only Packers player who I have interest in for DFS. He's pretty cheap and could go for a huge game against this leaky Broncos defense. Josh Palmer fits a similar boom-bust archetype and is even cheaper, but the hypothetical boom for Watson just feels so explosive.
I'm also using Jaleel McLaughlin almost anywhere I roster him. RB is thin! Javonte Williams is also in play. Both players look like top-24 options at the position to me.
Over/Under -- 51.5 points (opened at 49.5)
Eagles (27 points) -- The Dolphins didn't quite make the group of six rushing defenses that I keep referencing the EPA of, but they are next-up with a just-barely positive expectation against the run through six games. Miami has the second-worst defensive rushing success rate vs. zone-concept runs, which is by far the most prevalent look that Philly's run game gives.
Dolphins (24.5 points) -- Philadelphia has the highest opponent first-read target rate in the NFL, meaning opposing QBs are targeting their rate at an unusually high rate. Philly uses a lot of Cover-3 and is certainly easier to attack through the air than on the ground. We've seen some big WR1 weeks against them.
When facing Cover-3, Tyreek Hill's target rate and per-route efficiency has risen substantially while Jaylen Waddle's rates have dipped a bit.
How I'm approaching this game:
A huge game is always available to Raheem Mostert, but this is not a good on-paper matchup. He's still locked into lineups, as is Jaylen Waddle. The Dolphins have been trying to find Waddle lately, he's just missed on some bigger games.
A huge D'Andre Swift game could be coming. He's intriguing as a DFS captain play. DeVonta Smith is again someone you probably have to start, and the Eagles did try to get him going last week, but the vibes are bad right now. Things feel off with the passing game, and Miami's two-high safety looks could frustrate the passing game in Week 7. I'd expect them to lean on the ground game unless the passing game can get going early. Dallas Goedert and Swift stand out as the matchup winners here.
Over/Under -- 44 points (opened at 47)
Vikings (18.75 points) -- The 49ers keep everything in front of them defensively with a ton of two-safety looks. Their 25% Cover-4 rate is the fourth-highest in the NFL. San Francisco is also really physical for a zone-heavy unit, ranking 12th with a press coverage rate of 59%. This is a brutal spot for Jordan Addison, who just doesn't seem ready for all that yet. T.J. Hockenson will likely pile up targets if the Vikings can move the chains.
49ers (25.25 points) -- The Vikings blitz at by far the highest rate. Brock Purdy ranks first in passer rating when not blitzed but eighth vs. the blitz. His average depth of target is notably above average when not blitzed but below average when blitzed. Deebo Samuel has been his most-targeted player vs. the blitz, while Brandon Aiyuk's rate has dropped slightly and George Kittle's has remained unchanged.
How I'm approaching this game:
Jordan Mason has been really good this year.
Under the assumption that Christian McCaffrey was out, Mason would rank just behind McLaughlin as the RB22 in my Week 7 rankings. Elijah Mitchell would be RB24.
Qualifying SportsLine members receive a 30-day free trial of Paramount+ premium. Sync your account right here.