Beyond the Boxscore: Fantasy Football 2023 Week 3 Lineup Advice from proven expert
Not sure who to start in Week 3? Jacob Gibbs gave lineup advice on how to handle some of the more complicated Week 2 start/sit situations.
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Each week, we're going to go beyond the boxscore and dive into the most interesting situations from around the NFL and discuss how they might shape the Fantasy landscape for the upcoming week. My hope is that you leave this article feeling at least a little bit more confident in the reasoning behind your lineup decisions.
I'm going to give advice in this space and hope to be right more than wrong, but most importantly, I hope that you leave these columns with a clearer and fuller understanding of what goes into my rankings here on SportsLine. I'm excited to peel back the curtain a bit and invite you to start thinking about your lineup decisions in a less linear way. We're trying to move away from this player ranks two spots higher than this player, so he's the one to start – lineup decisions are almost always more dynamic than that!
I do my best to create space to answer questions on Twitter throughout the week, you might catch me there. I also plan to create a live stream version of this article where we can talk through lineup decisions together each Wednesday starting in Week 4.
My goal is to be more present and available to help SportsLine members with their Fantasy lineup decisions this season! Below, you'll find the situations that stood out the most to me when making important lineup decisions across my leagues for Week 2.
If you're starting your Fantasy football draft research or scouring the Internet for Fantasy rankings, you need to see what SportsLine's highly-rated expert Jacob Gibbs has to say. Gibbs uses a data-driven approach that has helped him consistently provide accurate rankings at every position. He has proven to be one of the nation's most accurate Fantasy rankers in recent years -- posting the eighth-most accurate results over the past three seasons, according to Fantasy Pros.
Now, Gibbs has projected every Fantasy-relevant player's stats and shared his findings for Week 2 of the 2023 season. In Week 1, Gibbs advised starting Puka Nacua while helping Fantasy managers avoid disappointing performances from Najee Harris and George Pickens. Leading up to Week 2, Gibbs loved what he saw from Houston's young wide receiver combo Nico Collins and Tank Dell, and he also advised trusting Nacua and Kyren Williams even in a matchup against the 49ers. Through two weeks, his in-season weekly rankings are the ninth-most accurate among 200+ rankers.
One player Gibbs is especially high on in Week 3: Chargers RB Joshua Kelley.
Gibbs loved what he saw from Kelley from a usage perspective in Week 2 and expects much better results in a projected shootout against the Minnesota Vikings. Gibbs is also all-in on a rookie receiver! You NEED to see Gibbs' analysis before you lock in your lineup.
So who are the best under-the-radar players to start in Week 3? And which fill-in running backS can you trust? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' 2023 Fantasy football rankings, sleepers, breakouts and busts, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!
Joshua Kelley was one of the most popular waiver wire adds after Week 1. If you spent a significant chunk of FAAB to acquire Kelley, you likely were massively let down by his Week 2 performance. That came against the toughest run defense in the NFL, and the Chargers modified their game plan to attack the path of least resistance -- Tennessee's pass defense -- aggressively. A week after ranking dead last in situation neutral pass rate, L.A. ranked first in Week 2.
In Week 3, Kelley faces a Vikings defense that ceded 259 yards and three touchdowns on the ground to the Eagles in Week 2. The Chargers don't run the ball as effectively as the Eagles, of course, but L.A.'s offensive line did look capable of dominating a weaker opponent in Week 1. Pro Football Focus has L.A.'s run blocking graded 12th-best through two weeks, while Minnesota's rush defense unit grades out second-worst. Things should be much better in Week 3. Nobody pushes Tennessee's defensive line around. I view that matchup as one of the most detrimental available to any Fantasy player at any position.
Assuming Austin Ekeler misses Week 3's game (he has yet to practice as of Thursday), I have Kelley ranked as the RB14 ahead of Brian Robinson, D'Andre Swift, Alexander Mattison, Miles Sanders, and Dameon Pierce.
Aaron Jones turned 11 touches into 126 scrimmage yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Chicago Bears in Week 1. Rachaad White followed that up with 103 yards and a score in Week 2.
Isiah Pacheco (hamstring) returned to practice for the Chiefs on Thursday and appears set to handle his usual workload. And lately, that workload has been trending upwards.
Pacheco has yet to find the end zone, so his Fantasy results haven't been all that exciting. He has a great shot at finding the end zone in Week 3, though. Pacheco leads the Chiefs with four red zone opportunities (rush attempt or target) through two weeks and is the only RB who has a red zone opportunity. The Chiefs carry a 30-point implied total (the highest that we've seen thus far in 2023) into the matchup with Chicago. If you drafted Pacheco, this is the exact spot where you start him.
Of course, there's no predictability to who will find the end zone for the Chiefs outside of Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. There's definitely a path to a "floor" outcome for Pacheco, even against the Bears. I feel cautiously optimistic about him in this spot. Pacheco ranks 15th at RB for me, in a two-player tier with Kelley and below options like Kyren Williams, James Cook, and Raheem Mostert.
The Texans only have an 18-point implied team total, but I expect Nico Collins and Tank Dell to be Fantasy-relevant options again in Week 3. The Jaguars and Texans both have played at a quick pace offensively, and the Texans have been willing to let rookie QB C.J. Stroud air it out even with a banged-up offensive line. The offensive line may get a major boost in Week 3, as left tackle Laremy Tunsil returned to practice on Wednesday and could suit up for the first time in 2023. I'd expect to see another pass-heavy approach from Houston in this spot against a Jacksonville defense that has been attackable through the air through two weeks.
Collins is a beast and is positioned to put up huge Fantasy results for as long as the Texans continue to find any level of success moving the chains. He's completely dominated the receiving volume for Houston when healthy.
Collins will likely continue to dominate the receiving volume, but we saw rookie Tank Dell sneakily lead Houston in targets in Week 2. Dell is electric. He is so good. Dell led all of college football in receiving across the 2021-22 seasons, and we're already seeing him eviscerate opposing secondaries just two games into his NFL career. You'll find Dell's name among the top-10 "most open" players in the NFL, which is absolutely absurd when you consider that list is a raw volume stat and Dell only played half of the snaps in Week 1.
I don't see the Jaguars as a matchup that we will go out of our way to attack with Fantasy pass-catchers in 2023, but they're also not one to avoid. With Houston likely to produce huge target volume again as 8.5-point underdogs, both Collins and Dell could produce in Fantasy again. Collins ranks as the WR25 ahead of Garrett Wilson, Jerry Jeudy, Michael Pittman, Terry McLaurin, and D.J. Moore, while Dell (WR36) isn't that far behind. I'd start Dell ahead of Elijah Moore, Gabe Davis, Marquise Brown, Jahan Dotson, and Tutu Atwell. And really, you could consider starting him ahead of the receivers that I mentioned starting Collins ahead of. Outside of Jeudy's Broncos being implied for 21 Week 3 points, none of those wide receiver's teams have a notably better projected game environment than Dell's Texans.
Those were the player-specific situations that stood out to me as worth discussing in detail this week. Each week, we'll wrap up this start/sit journey by sorting out the fringe starter range of my rankings at each position.
The number of quarterbacks I consider to be viable starters each week has hovered around 23 so far. This week, C.J. Stroud is the 23rd name on that list, while Ryan Tannehill, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Baker Mayfield are fine starts for those in desperate situations.
You can easily start Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert, no questions asked.
Group 1: Quarterbacks with the upside to push well north of 20 Fantasy points
Tier 1 -- Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Fields, Dak Prescott
Tier 2 -- Deshaun Watson, Joe Burrow, Geno Smith, Russell Wilson
Tier 3 -- Daniel Jones, Brock Purdy, Jordan Love, Matthew Stafford
If you're looking for upside, these are your guys.
Implied point total for each quarterback's team in Week 2:
27.75 -- Prescott
27.5 -- Tagovailoa
27.25 -- Purdy
26.5 -- Lawrence
26 -- Cousins
24 -- Smith
23 -- Burrow
22.25 -- Love
21.5 -- Watson
21 -- Wilson
20.5 -- Stafford
17.5 -- Fields
Considering the group this way makes Stafford again stick out. He's the only one with a low implied team total who doesn't bring rushing upside. And he has yet to put up a 20+ point game. He also has thrown only one touchdown in two games in spite of excellent play. The 0-2 Bengals have really been embarrassed on the ground thus far -- usually a point of pride for Cincinnati -- and I expect them to make sure that trend does not continue in what feels like a statement Week 3 home game. If Stafford and Sean McVay notice Cincinnati keying on the run, you better believe that they'll go right back to the Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell show. I'm intrigued by Stafford in this spot. He's my QB19 for Week 3, and I wouldn't blame anyone for starting him over Jordan Love or even Justin Fields, both of whom project as riskier options.
Again, I'll say that I'd prefer to avoid Jordan Love. He may get one or both of Aaron Jones and Christian Watson back, and the Packers have a decent implied team total, so there is upside. I'm quite concerned about the floor falling out on Love's Fantasy performance, though. The Packers are playing super slow, the Saints have a stingy defense, and Love actually ranks dead last in off-target rate. He's been forced into making some aggressive throws, and he's connected on some of them. But I do believe that his outlier touchdown rate is propping up what has been an expectedly inconsistent first two games for the first-time starter. I'd start Jared Goff, Daniel Jones, and Brock Purdy over Love.
If you are all the way out on Fields at this point, I get it. I want to give him another chance for Fantasy, given his willingness to publicly declare that he's going into Week 3 with an "F it" mentality. I expect that to lead to mistakes and an early hole for the Bears, which should only result in more dropbacls. Specifically, Fields' comments feel related to his lack of rushing through two weeks, and we all know that we drafted Fields to pile up Fantasy points with his legs. His range of outcomes is massive in this spot. It wouldn't even surprise me to see Fields get benched if things get ugly enough. But he also could rush for 100+ yards, so think long and hard before you start another QB over him in Week 3.
Group 2: Quarterbacks who feel like safe bets to post a score that doesn't hurt your lineup
Tier 1 -- Jared Goff
Tier 2 -- Derek Carr, Sam Howell, Kenny Pickett, C.J. Stroud
As I do with every offense that faces that Altanta Falcons, I worry about play volume for Goff. He's my QB14, and I'm fine starting him where you need to. Detroit has a healthy 25-point implied team total.
The Tier 2 QBs are all stretching the definition of "safe," to be honest. I expect each to have decent weeks, but two are brand-new NFL starters and the other two have exhibited plenty of erratic play. It wouldn't shock me if any of this group puts up 20+ Fantasy points, but the highest implied team total (just 20.25) of the bunch belongs to Carr and Pickett's respective offenses. It's pretty unlikely that any of these games will deliver enough touchdown upside for these quarterbacks to matter outside of 2QB formats.
The RB position is in a sad state already in Week 3. There are 12players I feel really good about starting, and things get pretty thin after that.
Group 1: There's definitely upside!
Tier 1 -- Jahmyr Gibbs
Tier 2 -- Joshua Kelley, Isiah Pacheco
Tier 3 -- Alexander Mattison, Miles Sanders, Dameon Pierce, D'Andre Swift
I don't expect Jahmyr Gibbs to see a significant role change in Week 3. With David Montgomery's injury not expected to be a long-term one, I'd expect the Lions to stick to their original plan for easing Gibbs in. The Lions like Craig Reynolds and have trusted him to carry a workload in the past.
As mentioned with Goff, I also worry about Detroit's play volume in this spot. There's upside for an expanded role, and there's always upside for big plays. If you roster Gibbs, you're almost certainly starting him. He ranks as the RB10 for me in Week 3.
Sanders faces the easiest matchup that he's seen thus far. I don't feel great about it, but Sanders is in play. The Panthers concentrated their backfield touches after splitting things more evenly between Sanders and Chuba Hubbard in Week 1, and Sanders looks like the locked-in bellcow in an offense that has really struggled to get anything going moving the ball through the air.
We have no idea what the role will look like with Kenneth Gainwell back, and the Eagles are traveling to face a Tampa Bay rush defense that is much tougher than the Minnesota Vikings. I'm not expecting a repeat performance from Swift, although a strong follow-up is certainly possible. Philly's offensive line can bully just about any opponent. Swift may have the widest ranges of outcomes of any RB in Week 3. Start him at your own risk.
The potential return of Laremy Tunsil certainly stands to benefit Dameon Pierce. We really have no reason to believe in Pierce in this spot outside of betting on his talent.
The offensive line has been a mess, as Pierce ranks 36th among 39 qualified backs in yards before contact. His role has also been a massive disappointment, as Pierce only has a 33% route participation and often comes off of the field in passing situations. The Texans are listed as 8.5-point underdogs, and the Jags are no pushover on the ground. Ideally, you'll have a better option in Week 3. There are certainly less risky ones.
Group 2: These are safer plays who make sense in theory, but I'm not excited by their projection
Tier 1 -- Brian Robinson Jr.
Tier 2 -- Tyler Allgeier, Kendre Miller, Gus Edwards, Najee Harris, Javonte Williams, Kenneth Gainwell
We have yet to see the Commanders attempt to dig themselves out of a hole, and it's possible that Robinson's role might shrink in that sort of game script. It's also possible that he won't continue to score 1.5 touchdowns per game, as the Commanders are only implied for 18.5 points.
It's not easy to consider benching the RB3 in Fantasy when the RB position is a dumpster fire this week, but it's also important to remain flexible in our thinking on a week-to-week basis. We're dealing with seriously small sample sizes with only two games of data available to us. What we assume about a player's role or efficiency could be entirely wrong. Robinson looks like a different player and a more valuable Fantasy RB in his second season, which makes sense. He had a healthy preseason this time around, he's not a rookie, he's playing with a different coaching staff and QB in place -- there are so many reasons to assume that his circumstances have changed his Fantasy outlook and what we've seen thus far is replicable.
The reality is that we've seen Antonio Gibson out-snap Robinson 20-17 on the few plays that the Commanders have spent trailing by 7+ points. The Commanders are 6.5-point underdogs against the Bills. We could see Robinson's playing time and touches shrink significantly in Week 3.
Group 3: We're betting on volume. There's not much upside here.
Tier 1 -- Zack Moss, Rachaad White, Jerome Ford
Tier 2 -- James Conner
All four of these backs draw brutal Week 3 matchups. I'm particularly worried about James Conner. His route participation has fallen to 55% in 2023, which is significantly lower than what we saw from him when healthy in 2022. He has five catches for eight yards in two games. If Conner's receiving contributions aren't what we expected, he's really facing an uphill battle for Fantasy relevancy as an Arizona Cardinal. Add a matchup against the Cowboys on top of that, and Conner feels like a super dicey Week 3 option.
Group 1: I think we can trust these players
Tier 1 -- Mike Williams, George Pickens, DK Metcalf, Tee Higgins, Amari Cooper, Tyler Lockett
Tier 2 -- Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, Nico Collins, Jordan Addison
Tier 3 -- Chris Godwin, Drake London, Jerry Jeudy, Zay Flowers, Michael Pittman, Jakobi Meyers
Tier 4 -- Tank Dell, Elijah Moore, Michael Thomas, Christian Kirk, Tutu Atwell
George Pickens graduated from Group 2 and is now a Group 1 Tier 1 player! And rightfully so -- the question was never one of Pickens' talent, but rather Matt Canada's decision to actively sabotage his star young receiver. In Week 2, we saw Pickens used more over the middle of the field, which gives him a chance to actually draw a WR1 sort of target share for as long as Diontae Johnson remains sidelined.
Big Mike has been a focal point of L.A.'s offense in the early going while Quentin Johnston acclimates to the NFL.
He's a locked-in starter and DFS building block for me in a projected shootout against Minnesota.
Like Big Mike, Amari Cooper's hot start has gone a bit under the radar, but could come boiling to the surface in a potential eruption spot against the Titans.
The Vikings have done Jordan Addison no favors from a role standpoint. He's basically been asked to just go out and win in one-on-one situations, and on the plays where Justin Jefferson is covered and Addison wins his 1v1, Kirk Cousins may look his way. So far, Addison has made the most of his limited opportunities, catching every catchable target and turning them into WR18 production in Fantasy. Given the efficiency that we've seen thus far, the possibility remains wide open that he's a special talent. If the Vikings do make him a bigger part of the offense after 10 days off following a Thursday night game in Week 2, this could be a big spot for their Round 1 rookie.
Group 2: Mystery Box
Tier 1 -- Garrett Wilson, Terry McLaurin, DJ Moore, DeAndre Hopkins
Tier 2 -- Gabe Davis, Marquise Brown, Jahan Dotson
Tier 3 -- Courtland Sutton, Treylon Burks, Skyy Moore, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Josh Reynolds, Rashid Shaheed
The Tier 1 players are victims of their offensive environments and are difficult to place any confidence in. The Tier 2 players bring their own question marks, and I don't love the matchup. Tier just doesn't quite get there from a projects standpoint for me. There are fun and exciting players in that tier, but I'd prefer to not have to start these receivers outside of wide-open-lane slam-dunk spots.
Group 3: I'd really rather avoid them
Tier 1 -- Allen Robinson, Van Jefferson, Tyler Boyd, Michael Gallup, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Robert Woods
Tier 2 -- DeVante Parker, K.J. Osborn, Parris Campbell
Tier 3 -- Jonathan Mingo, Calvin Austin, Marvin Mims, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Josh Downs, Rashod Bateman
Group 1 -- Upside shots
Tier 1 -- Dallas Goedert, Pat Freiermuth, George Kittle, Evan Engram
Tier 2 -- Sam LaPorta, David Njoku, Kyle Pitts, Hunter Henry, Dalton Kincaid
Tier 3 -- Tyler Higbee, Luke Musgrave, Jake Ferguson, Taysom Hill
Group 2 -- I'm just looking for eight points, honestly
Tier 1 -- Zach Ertz
Tier 2 -- Cole Kmet, Dalton Schultz, Hayden Hurst, Dawson Knox, Kylen Granson
Tier 3 -- Logan Thomas, Cade Otton, Durham Smythe
Group 3 -- You can surely find a better option, right?
Tier 1 -- Chigoziem Okonkwo, Juwan Johnson
Tier 2 -- Gerald Everett, Mike Gesicki
Tier 3 -- Irv Smith Jr., Noah Fant
Good luck with your lineup decisions this week! Be sure to hit me up on Twitter during one of the Q&A's or Live Streams, when I set aside time for lineup questions!
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