Fantasy Football Week 5: Stats that matter when setting lineups, including how Cooper Kupp's return impacts Puka Nacua

If you're starting your Fantasy football draft research or scouring the Internet for Fantasy rankings, you need to see what SportsLine's highly-rated expert Jacob Gibbs has to say. Gibbs uses a data-driven approach that has helped him consistently provide accurate rankings at every position. He has proven to be one of the nation's most accurate Fantasy rankers in recent years -- posting the eighth-most accurate results over the past few seasons, according to Fantasy Pros. Gibbs had the fourth-most accurate rankings in Week 4 and ranks seventh out of nearly 200 experts in terms of rankings accuracy on the year.

Now, Gibbs has projected every team's stats and shared his findings for Week 5 of the 2023 season. He provided the most important research note that he found for every team and matchup to help those setting Fantasy football lineups, building DFS lineups, or placing sports bets.

One player Gibbs is especially high on: Rams receiver Puka Nacua. Gibbs nailed Nacua's Week 4 return to form in last week's game-by-game breakdown, and he expects the rookie receiver to stay target-hogging against a zone-heavy Eagles coverage scheme. You NEED to see Gibbs' analysis before you lock in your lineup.

So who are the best under-the-radar players to start in Week 5? And which under-the-radar tight end could explode this week? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' analytics wraparound, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!

We're changing up the weekly content that I'll provide this year, and I'm psyched for it! This game-by-game guide is one of the new installments, along with a weekly Lineup Advice article for SportsLine members.

In this space, I'll provide game information and one key takeaway that I found when researching that matchup. Each team's implied point total and rank will be in parentheses. 

If you have further questions about any team or situation for the upcoming week, please feel free to hit me up on Twitter. If I don't see your initial message, you can find me on Wednesday live streams or on Thursday nights and Sunday mornings, when I set aside time to answer questions on Twitter. If you turn on Twitter notifications for my account, you'll have a great chance of catching me when I'm available for questions. I'm aiming to have time to take questions two to three times per week throughout the season.

Here's what stood out to me as I looked ahead to Week 5.

Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Over/Under -- 48.5 points (opened at 47.5, meaning bettors have pushed that line up by one point this week)

Bills (27 points) -- The Jaguars use Cover-3 at the second-highest rate in the NFL (56.9%). Typically, Cover-3 leads to more targets for opposing WR1s. Since the start of 2022, Stefon Diggs has averaged an absurd 3.30 yards per route run vs. Cover-3, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL.

Jaguars (21.5 points) -- The Bills use press coverage at the fourth-highest rate (71.8%) and just lost top corner Tre'Davious White.

During his 2020 breakout season, Calvin Ridley ranked 96th percentile at the wide receiver position with a 2.79 yard per route run rate vs. press coveage. In 2023, Ridley is averaging only 1.01 yards per route run vs. press, ranking 33rd percentile.

How I'm approaching this game:

This game is really all about Calvin Ridley. The Jags desperately need more from him if this offense is going to take a next step and be able to compete with elite teams like the Bills. If Ridley can beat the Bills' press coverage, it will elevate the entire game environment.

Ridley will be the captain in a lot of my showdown DFS lineups on Sunday morning and is locked into my lineups in season-long leagues. I have Ridley ranked as the WR14 and am cautiously optimistic that he answers the call in this spot. I'm also comfortable with starting Christian Kirk, who has picked up the slack while Zay Jones has been sidelined and Ridley has worked to knock off the rust. If Jones returns, I'd expect Kirk to return to three-receiver-only status, but there should be plenty of three-receiver sets as heavy underdogs against Buffalo.

James Cook and Travis Etienne are essentially lock-and-load starters for the time being, and I have both ranked as top-12 Fantasy RB in a projected shootout. I didn't see any significant matchup notes that move the needle for Gabe Davis or Dalton Kincaid. They're fringe starters.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans 

Over/Under -- 43 points (opened at 43)

Colts (20.25 points) -- Per Scott Barrett of FantasyPoints.com, Anthony Richarsdson is averaging 30.3 Fantasy points per four quarters. Justin Herbert's 23.9 average places him in a distant second. He's a must-start every week until he proves otherwise and is absolutely a must against Tennessee's pass funnel defense.

Titans (22.75 points) -- The Colts have used Cover-3 on 63.8% of defensive plays. The next-highest rate is 56.9%.

How I'm approaching this game:

Opposing receivers have crushed Indianapolis in 2023. DeAndre Hopkins hasn't crushed much (65 yards in Week 1 remains his season-high) in 2023, but he is clearly the WR1 in Tennessee. I currently have Hopkins ranked as the WR27, behind Nico Collins, Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, and Jordan Addison. His matchup is fantastic, but the top to those players' range of outcomes feels so much higher. We just haven't seen any explosiveness from Hopkins.

Derrick Henry is locked in, and that's all of the words I have left to spare on Tennessee. Well, actually, Tyjae Spears is awesome. He always deserves a shout. Add Tyjae Spears anywhere that you can. I'd even go out of my way to trade for him. He's exciting.

We have much more to talk about on the Colts side of things. Jonathan Taylor is set to join Anthony Richardson in the backfield for the first time "if all continues to go well."

According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, Zack Moss ranks sixth in expected Fantasy points per game (18.2). In Week 1, Deon Jackson's expected Fantasy point total was 18.5. The Colts backfield has produced elite volume for Fantasy purposes. Will it matter against a Titans defense that is the only unit in the NFL allowing fewer than three yards per rush?

If Taylor doesn't suit up, Zack Moss sat 20th in my Week 5 rankings. Even in a matchup against the Titans, Moss projected as a top-20 back through volume. Under the assumption that Taylor were filling the same role, a case could be made for viewing him as a top-20 option this week. Given that we have no idea how much Taylor will play or how effective he will be in his first action in a long time, that type of ranking feels extremely aggressive. I have Moss ranked as the RB35 as of this writing, but it is of course a fluid situation. Be sure to check back as we get closer to Sunday's games -- my Week 5 rankings will stay updated, and I'll take questions on Twitter on Sunday morning.

New England Patriots vs. New Orleans Saints 

Over/Under -- 39.5 points (opened at 42)

Patriots (20.25 points) -- The Saints have allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game to the RB position and have the third-lowest missed tackle rate.

Saints (19.25 points) -- The Patriots are one of just four defenses that don't use zone coverage more than 60% of the time. Since the start of 2021, Alvin Kamara has been targeted on 30% of his routes vs. zone coverage, compared to 19.9% of his routes run when facing man coverage.

How I'm approaching this game:

The Patriots are home favorites, and it's not like they're at the absolute bottom of the barrel when it comes to implied points. Rhamondre Stevenson is okay as a bet-on-volume play if you have to make it, but I'd really prefer not to. There are 22 running backs that I have ahead of Stevenson for Week 5, and you could add any of Jahmyr Gibbs, Miles Sanders, or Dameon Pierce to that list if you're comfortable taking on more risk.

Alvin Kamara ranks a bit ahead of Stevenson for me (RB18 in Half-PPR and RB15 in PPR), but it wouldn't surprise me if his silly target numbers from Week 5 shrink significantly in this spot. If Derek Carr's shoulder is still a major impediment to the downfield passing game, Kamara could again dominate the target share. But the overall matchup will be much more difficult to move the chains against, and the schematic fit against a man-heavy coverage is definitely worse than Week 4's matchup with the Bucs.

The only player that I want to start from this game is Chris Olave. And even then, I'm not going there in DFS.

Detroit Lions vs. Carolina Panthers 

Over/Under -- 44 points (opened at 43.5)

Lions (27 points) -- The Panthers use press coverage at the third-lowest rate and Cover-3 at the fourth-highest rate. This has been a cookie-cutter defensive scheme through the first four weeks, and it sets up quite well for Amon-Ra St. Brown. On pass attempts targeting a player facing press coverage, Jared Goff's average depth of target is just 6.5 yards, compared to 11.4 when facing press coverage. I'd expect the passing attack to center around St. Brown and Sam LaPorta against Carolina's zone-heavy defense.

Panthers (17 points) -- Adam Thielen played through an injury in Week 1, but he has been an every-week Fantasy starter since then. Thielen has target totals of 9, 14, and 8 over the past three games. During that time, Thielen has a 27% target share, 32% air yardage share, and 33% first-read target share.

How I'm approaching this game:

St. Brown and LaPorta are locked into lineups, as is David Montgomery as Detroit could build an early lead and run the ball 30+ times again. Jahmyr Gibbs and Jared Goff are not necessarily on that level for me in Week 5, but both are viable plays if you need them.

I'm not looking to use any Lions other than Montgomery in DFS. Panthers games are gross. You could go with the Sun God if you're looking for a contrarian play. This may be the lowest his rostered rate is all year, I'd expect no one to play him with an injury designation in a meh offensive environment that so clearly seems to favor Montgomery and the ground game.

On the Carolina side of things, Thielen is the only player who I have interest in. I'm not planning to use him in DFS since there are so many dirt-cheap WR options available, but he's fine as a flex start in managed leagues.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Houston Texans 

Over/Under -- 41.5 points (opened at 45)

Falcons (21.5 points) -- The Texans have been predictably much better defensively under DeMeco Ryans' instruction. I wouldn't have predicted that they'd improve this much this quickly, though. On paper, Ryans' Texans defense is built particularly well to stop the Falcons. Houston uses a ton of two-high safety looks and zone coverage to keep everything in front of them. The Texans are the only defense with an opposing average depth of target below six yards. It could be another week where Jonnu Smith out-produces Kyle Pitts.

According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, when facing zone-concept rushes, the Texans rank 18th in defensive rushing success rate and have allowed the eighth-lowest yards per attempt. The Falcons use more zone-concept runs than any team in the NFL. The Texans have missed the third-most tackles in the league, so we could still see Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier rip off some explosive rushes in this spot.

Texans (20 points) -- The Falcons have been one of the most difficult defenses to attack with downfield passing.

Opposing quarterbacks have avoided Atlanta's corners. Only 54% of targets against Atlanta have gone to the WR position, down from a league average of 59%. The Falcons have the 10th-fewest opposing offensive plays per game. I really prefer to avoid using wide receivers against Atlanta if possible. In Week 5, I have Nico Collins ranked as the WR24, behind Zay Flowers, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Jordan Addison. Tank Dell comes in as the WR32. You can find my full Week 5 rankings here.

How I'm approaching this game:

The Texans are expected to get both starting offensive tackles back for this game, so you definitely shouldn't hesitate to start C.J. Stroud, Collins or Dell, or even Dameon Pierce if you really need to.

On the Atlanta side of the ball, Pitts, Smith, Drake London, and Allgeier are fine desperation plays if you have to make them. Bijan Robinson is, of course, locked into your lineups. Robinson is also a super intriguing DFS play. Houston's game environments have been extremely inviting for Fantasy purposes. This is one of the better spots that Robinson will find himself in this season, and his price tag is still pretty palatable.

Atlanta's trust in Robinson as the offensive focal point has been tangibly increasing with each passing week.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens 

Over/Under -- 38 points (opened at 41.5)

Steelers (16.75 points) -- The Ravens (34.2%) are one of just seven teams that use man coverage more than 30% of the time. Baltimore ranks eighth in press coverage rate (64.6%).

The Steelers are only implied for 16.75 points, so you're better off avoiding. You could take a shot on George Pickens breaking a big play or two, though.

Ravens (21.25 points) -- The Steelers remain one of the league's blitz-heaviest schemes (30% -- 12th), but they've moved away a from man coverage a bit more in 2023. Instead, the Steelers are using Cover-3 at the sixth-highest rate (45%). The result of this combination has been massive performances for downfield WR1 threats. The Ravens don't exactly have a Nico Collins on their roster, the closest match would be Mark Andrews.

For what it's worth, Zay Flowers has been targeted on 13 of 58 routes vs. Cover-3 with a 10.2-yard aDOT that is significantly higher than his rate vs. other coverage schemes. He's turned those 13 targets into 13 receptions and 172 yards. So, maybe Flowers is the guy who will give this defense work down the field.

Since the start of 2022, Mark Andrews has elevated his rates notably when facing Cover-3, and Lamar Jackson has the fourth-highest passer rating. If you want a really off-the-wall game stack for DFS tournaments, you could roll with Jackson, Andrews and/or Flowers, and Pickens. If they connect on the downfield targets, this game could end up producing way more points than anyone could have anticipated.

How I'm approaching this game:

The Pittsburgh-Baltimore game stack is too rich for my blood, even. All of the running backs in this game rank outside of the top-24 at the position for me in Week 5. I'd rather avoid this spot outside of Jackson, Andrews, and Flowers.

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Giants 

Over/Under -- 47.5 points (opened at 49)

Dolphins (30 points) -- The Giants blitz at the second-highest rate (53.6%), and Tua Tagovailoa has by far the highest passer rating vs. the blitz since the start of 2022. Tyreek Hill is the Dolphin who's seen the biggest target boost vs. the blitz, but both Hill (3.95) and Jaylen Waddle (3.39) have absolutely absurd yard per route run rates when blitzed since the start of 2022. This could be another eruption spot for the Miami offense.

Giants (17.5 points) -- The Dolphins only blitz 25.8% of the time (21st) under Vic Fangio. Since the start of 2022, Daniel Jones' passer rating sits 10% below league average when blitzed but is right in line with league average when not blitzed.

Jones has an average depth of target of 6.99 when not blitzed, which is second-lowest ahead of only Desmond Ridder. His top target when not blitzed has been Parris Campbell, with an aDOT of 3.94 yards on those non-blitzed targets. Wan'Dale Robinson took that role from Campbell in his second game back in the lineup.

How I'm approaching this game:

De'Von Achane and Robinson (bare minimum $3k salary on DraftKings) will be at the center of my Week 5 DFS strategy. I'm also intrigued by the idea of a mega Dolphins stack -- Tagovailoa, Achane, Hill, Waddle, Raheem Mostert -- throw them all in. Hitting on a true eruption and benefitting across the board feels more likely than finding any predictability in guessing which specific players will pop off. I like the idea of one mega stack, and then two additional stacks -- one of which excludes Mostert and one that doesn't include Waddle.

Darren Waller is also in play, if you have no better option at TE. He's running plenty of routes, but he's just not drawing targets.

Currently, Waller's career trajectory is not looking promising.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles 

Over/Under -- 50 points (opened at 47.5)

Rams (22.75 points) -- The Eagles use either Cover-3 or Cover-6 on 62% of defensive plays, up from a league average of 45%.

When facing Cover-4 or Cover-6:

Target per route run rate
34.9% -- Cooper Kupp in 2022
31.5% -- Puka Nacua in 2023

Yards per route run
3.09 -- Kupp in 2022
2.84 -- Nacua in 2023

Eagles (27.25 points) -- The Rams use both Cover-4 and Cover-6 more than 20% of the time, making them the only team to use both schemes so often. The league average Cover-4 rate is 14%, L.A.'s rate is 24%. The league average Cover-6 rate is 9%, L.A.'s rate is 23%.

When facing Cover-4 or Cover-6 as a member of the Eagles, A.J. Brown's target rate and efficiency both have spiked. DeVonta Smith's target rate hasn't changed much, but he has been more efficient vs. these zone schemes. And Dallas Goedert has been the player to lose out on targets vs. Cover-4 and Cover-6.

How I'm approaching this game:

I'm projecting Kupp as if he'll play 50% of the snaps, which leaves plenty of target volume for Nacua. I have Nacua ranked as the WR8 and believe that he's totally viable as a DFS play, even at an elevated price tag. This is projected to be a shootout with the Rams clearly playing from behind. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see 10+ targets again for Nacua, even with Kupp's return.

And I think that you can use Kupp too, if you need him. I have him ranked as the WR29 after projecting him for a 50% route participation in this game. He comes in just after Garrett Wilson and Adam Thielen and just ahead of Tank Dell and Jakobi Meyers.

Tutu Atwell is the player I Kupp to take playing time from. He's who I'm taking a wait-and-see approach with for Fantasy. Atwell could still make a splash play, so he's not the worst flex start if you need him, but I'd rather avoid him.

Kyren Williams and D'Andre Swift are locked in. Matthew Stafford is my favorite DFS value QB play, and I'll definitely be stacking up Jalen Hurts with A.J. Brown. I expect Brown to be popular, but I want to continue to be aggressive in trying to roster him at a higher rate than the field.

The offense is centered around Brown at the moment, and it's working.

In a matchup that invites it, even facilitates it, I'd expect targets to be funneled to Philadelphia's top receiver. If the Rams offense keeps things competitive, Brown's stat line could really get out of control. We're putting him on 'DJ Moore vs. the Commanders' alert. That's the type of upside we're dealing with in this spot.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Bengals 

Over/Under -- 44.5 points (opened at 42.5)

Cardinals (21 points) -- Only the Denver Broncos have missed more tackles than the Cincinnati Bengals through four weeks. Only the Broncos have allowed more rushing yards per game than Cincinnati.

Bengals (24 points) -- No team is blitzing less this season than the under-new-management Arizona Cardinals, and that has not been a flexible tendency on a week-to-week basis through four games. I wrote in more detail about how perfect this matchup is for a Joe Burrow get-right game on this week's Beyond the Boxscore Lineup Advice column.

Here's another stat to throw on top of the BTB breakdown -- opposing quarterbacks have targeted their first-read 78.5% of the time against Arizona, the third-highest rate. Ja'Marr Chase has the seventh-highest first-read target share (37%) in the NFL, and I'd expect that rate to rise north of 40% if Tee Higgins sits out.

How I'm approaching this game:

Each week, I organize each position's starting options into tiered groups to help Fantasy managers make lineup decisions. The number of quarterbacks I consider to be viable starters each week hovered around 23 through the first three weeks. Last week that number was down to 19.

In Week 5, there are only 17 quarterbacks I want to start, with Joshua Dobbs being the cut-off point. Dobbs started using his legs more to move the chains in Week 2, and he's scored 25, 17, and 23 Fantasy points since then. Oddsmakers are giving the Cardinals more respect than at any point this season thus far, with a healthy-enough opening implied point total of 19.75 that has been bet up to 21. I'd start Dobbs over C.J. Stroud and Russell Wilson in Week 5.

James Conner keeps pushing upwards in my rankings and has made his way to the RB16 spot, ahead of Raheem Mostert, Aaron Jones, Breece Hall, and Alvin Kamara.

Marquise Brown is seeing tons of volume as Arizona's clear-cut WR1 and that doesn't project to change in this game. I only have 17 receivers ranked higher than Brown in Week 5.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Kansas City Chiefs 

Over/Under -- 52.5 points (opened at 51.5)

Vikings (24.75 points) -- The Chiefs blitz at the fifth-highest rate and use press coverage at the third-highest rate. This is an aggressive defense, and of course, both the blitz and press coverage have led to huge results for Justin Jefferson. When Kirk Cousins has been blitzed in 2023, Jefferson's target per route run rate rises all the way to 37.3%, T.J. Hockenson's rate rises slightly to 25%, and Jordan Addison and K.J. Osborn both have seen slight dips.

Chiefs (28.25 points) -- The Vikings use Cover-2 at the second-highest rate (20.4%), more than double the league average (10%). No team uses press coverage less often than Minnesota (26.8%). This is a soft hands-off zone coverage scheme that keeps everything in front of them.

Weirdly, the Vikings have by far the highest blitz rate. It's a bit unusual to pair such a high blitz rate with such a low press coverage rate.

How I'm approaching this game:

I expect Travis Kelce to be the biggest beneficiary of Minnesota's defensive approach. Kelce was targeted on 30.3% of his routes when Patrick Mahomes was blitzed last year, compared to 24% when not blitzed. I also think that Rashee Rice (one of my favorite Week 5 DFS values) could benefit from this matchup. Rice's spits have been notably worse vs. press coverage at the NFL level, which was the case in college too. He profiles as a JuJu Smith-Schuster over-the-middle replacement in this offense, and he could sit down and find lots of catch-and-run opportunities vs. Minnesota's zones.

Isiah Pacheco is in line for another big performance.

On the Minnesota side of the ball, I find myself really intrigued by Jordan Addison. The Chiefs have strong nickel coverage, but the strength of Kansas City's secondary is against opposing WR1s. Calvin Ridley was dominated by L'Jarius Snead, turning in just 32 yards against the Chiefs in Week 2. DJ Moore pushed his yardage total up to 41 in garbage time in Week 3. Last week, Garrett Wilson turned 14 targets into 60 yards against Kansas City.

This could be a spot where Kirk Cousins focuses more on Addison. We saw Christian Kirk get loose for 11 catches and 110 yards against Kansas City in Week 2. Addison has played notably more when the Vikings have trailed, so the projected game script sets up well in addition to the matchup.

Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets 

Over/Under -- 43.5 points (opened at 40)

Broncos (23 points) -- Cover-3 is the most prevalent coverage scheme in the NFL. When facing Cover-3 since the start of 2022, Russell Wilson comes in 8% below the league average in passer rating. When facing any other coverage scheme, Wilson actually has a rate that is 2% above the league average.

No team uses less Cover-3 than the Jets.

Jets (20.5 points) -- We saw what a matchup against Denver did for yardage after contact monster Khalil Herbert. Breece Hall is the only back with a higher yards after contact average since the start of the 2022 season.

Jets head coach Robert Saleh says that there's no longer a pitch count for Hall. Saleh went on to mention that there are still lots of other players that they want to involve, and in listing a bunch of names, neither Dalvin Cook or Michael Carter were mentioned. Hall has been getting progressively more involved with each week, and it appears as if the training wheels will come off in Week 5.

I don't want to get carried away in our expectations for Hall in this spot, as we have yet to see his usage expanded and the game environment could be really gross. The over/under has been bet up 3.5 points since open and is still at just 43.5. There are definitely paths to Fantasy failure for Hall in this spot. I'm taking the plunge on his risk/reward proposition this week -- Hall will be in roughly 15-25% of my tournament DFS lineups.

How I'm approaching this game:

The schematic fit seems to favor Russ, but much better quarterbacks have not found much success vs. this Jets defense. New York has faced Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Dak Prescott already, and the highest passing yardage total was 255. I don't want to trust the Broncos passing game. I don't want to use any of the running backs either with Javonte Williams looking set to suit up.

Zach Wilson looked better in Week 4, and Garrett Wilson saw 14 targets funneled his way. Wilson has the second-highest first-read target rate in the NFL, and we've seen several receivers get by Denver's defense for big Fantasy performances. Wilson and Hall are decent plays if you need upside in Week 5.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Dallas Cowboys 

Over/Under -- 45 points (opened at 47)

49ers (24.25 points) -- Brandon Aiyuk is on eruption watch anytime he draws a man-heavy coverage scheme, even one with as much talent as the Dallas Cowboys defense.

Cowboys (20.75 points) -- The 49ers have pressured opposing quarterbacks at the seventh-highest rate (39.4%) but rank only 24th in blitz rate (22.8%). CeeDee Lamb's target rate skyrockets when Dak Prescott has been blitzed. When pressured, not so much.

How I'm approaching this game:

I don't really want any exposure to the Dallas side of things in Week 5 outside of managed leagues where you are likely locked-and-loaded with Tony Pollard and Lamb each week.

I'm similarly unenthused by Deebo Samuel and George Kittle in this game. I have Samuel ranked behind DeAndre Hopkins, Nico Collins, Jordan Addison, Christian Watson, and Romeo Doubs in this matchup. I have Kittle ranked as TE7 and wouldn't blame you if you started Jake Ferguson (my TE9) over him.

Definitely start Aiyuk. I have Aiyuk ranked as the WR9 for Week 5. He has the highest PFF receiving grade in the NFL. He's balling out, the schematic fit is there, and the Niners have a healthy implied point total. He's a top-10 Fantasy WR for Week 5. I'd start him ahead of Lamb.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Green Bay Packers 

Over/Under -- 45 points (opened at 43.5)

Raiders (23 points) -- Davante Adams leads the NFL with a 55% first-read target share. The next-highest rate is 44%.

Packers (22 points) -- Even with Christian Watson making his debut, Romeo Doubs was Jordan Love's first-read 41% of the time in Week 4. When all three of Love, Doubs, and Watson have been on the field, the target distribution has been dead even between Doubs and Watson.

How I'm approaching this game:

I have both Doubs and Watson ranked as top-24 Fantasy WR and Love is QB15 for me in Week 5. I'm cautiously in on this young Packers passing game. Aaron Jones is a decent start too. Hopefully he is back to his usual workload soon.

The Bears didn't run the ball well against Green Bay in Week 1, and Kendre Miller and Tony Jones didn't do much vs. the Packers in Week 3. In Weeks 2 and 4, the Atlanta and Detroit backfields combined for 412 scrimmage yards and 3 touchdowns. According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, the Packers have allowed the sixth-highest rushing success rate on man/gap concept attempts. 68% of Josh Jacobs' attempts have been man/gap concept rushes, the third-highest rate in the NFL.

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