If you're starting your Fantasy football draft research or scouring the Internet for Fantasy rankings, you need to see what SportsLine's highly-rated expert Jacob Gibbs has to say. Gibbs uses a data-driven approach that has helped him consistently provide accurate rankings at every position. He has proven to be one of the nation's most accurate Fantasy rankers in recent years -- posting the eighth-most accurate results over the past three seasons, according to Fantasy Pros.
Now, Gibbs has projected every team's stats and shared his findings for Week 3 of the 2023 season. He provided the most important research note that he found for every team and matchup to help those setting Fantasy football lineups, building DFS lineups, or placing sports bets for Week 3.
One player Gibbs is especially high on: Vikings RB Alexander Mattison. Mattison has been one of the biggest Fantasy disappointments thus far, but he draws an ideal matchup in Week 3. You NEED to see Gibbs' analysis before you lock in your lineup.
So who are the best under-the-radar players to start in Week 3? And which under-the-radar tight end could explode this week? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' analytics wraparound, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!
We're changing up the weekly content that I'll provide this year, and I'm psyched for it! This game-by-game guide is one of the new installments, along with a weekly Lineup Advice article for SportsLine members.
In this space, I'll provide game information and one key takeaway that I found when researching that matchup. Each team's implied point total and rank will be in parentheses.
If you have further questions about any team or situation for the upcoming week, please feel free to hit me up on Twitter. If I don't see your initial message, you can find me on Wednesday live streams or on Thursday nights and Sunday mornings, when I set aside time to answer questions on Twitter. If you turn on Twitter notifications for my account, you'll have a great chance of catching me when I'm available for questions. I'm aiming to have time to take questions two to three times per week throughout the season.
Here's what stood out to me as I looked ahead to Week 3.
Over/Under -- 44.5 points
Jaguars (26.75 points - No. 6) -- DeMeco Ryans brought a zone-heavy coverage scheme with lots of two-high safety looks with him from San Francisco, and his Texans defense has the NFL's second-lowest opponent average depth of target (4.8 yards) through two games.
Jacksonville's 2023 average route depth:
10 yards - Calvin Ridley
9.3 yards - Zay Jones
6.6 yards - Christian Kirk
5.3 yards - Evan Engram
Texans (17.75 points - No. 26) -- Houston's offensive line might finally give C.J. Stroud some clean pockets in Week 3. PFF has Jacksonville's pass rush graded 28th overall, and the Texans may get starting left tackle Laremy Tunsil back for this game.
How I'm approaching this game:
This profiles as a decent matchup for Engram, and Kirk could be heavily involved again. I worry about Kirk's role shrinking if Zay Jones returns and the Jags use a lot of two-receiver sets while playing with a large lead. If Jones is out, Kirk becomes a really intriguing play.
Travis Etienne and Trevor Lawrence are likely locked into your starting lineups with the Jags carrying the sixth-highest implied total of the week. Neither are priority DFS plays, but Etienne is interesting for tournament consideration.
Dameon Pierce is a desperation play with the Texans listed as heavy underdogs. Hopefully you can avoid him. If not, here's to hoping that the return of Tunsil can spring Pierce into the open field where his tackle-breaking ability can shine.
Nico Collins and Tank Dell are both really exciting Week 3 plays, and Robert Woods is worth a look in deeper leagues.
Over/Under -- 42.5 points
Packers (22 points - No. 15) -- I expect Romeo Doubs to struggle against a stingy press-heavy New Orleans Saints defense. We could see Jayden Reed -- one of the most-targeted players in the NFL on a per-route basis -- continue to shine in this matchup.
Saints (20.5 points - No. 21) -- No team has used man coverage less than the Packers (4.7%) in 2023. Since the start of 2022, Derek Carr ranks in the 71st percentile among qualified quarterbacks in passer rating vs. man coverage, but 44th percentile vs. zone.
Specifically, Green Bay uses a ton (57% -- second in the NFL) of Cover-3. Carr ranks fifth percentile against Cover-3.
Yard per route run legend Rashid Shaheed has averaged 2.9 yards per route run vs. zone and 2.3 vs. man to this point in his career. Chris Olave has been more efficient vs. man coverage, but the difference is negligible. He ranks 10th in target per route run rate and eigth in yards per route run vs. Cover-3 since entering the league. Cover-3 typically leads to more targets for opposing WR1s.
How I'm approaching this game:
I'm worried about Carr and the Saints moving the ball with consistency in this spot. And, of course, the Saints defense presents a difficult matchup for Jordan Love and the trendy but still-super-green youth movement in Green Bay. There are definitely some exciting Fantasy players in this game -- Kendre Miller is one of the clearest Week 3 DFS values -- just don't overlook the 42.5-point over/under.
Over/Under -- 44.5 points
Commanders (18.5 points - No. 25) -- The opening two weeks have represented nearly identical circumstances and outcomes for Brian Robinson. He's looked awesome. It's been great to see him ball out. I'm worried about his Week 3 spot, though.
Antonio Gibson has out-snapped Robinson 20-17 on the few plays that the Commanders have spent trailing by 7+ points. The Commanders are 6.5-point underdogs against the Bills. We could see Robinson's playing time and touches shrink significantly in Week 3.
Bills (25 points - No. 10) -- Washington has only used Cover-3 15% of the time defensively in 2023. No team has a lower rate. The league average is 37%.
Since the start of 2022, when facing Cover-3, Josh Allen has only targeted the tight end position on 13% of his attempts. That rate has risen to 17% against any other coverage scheme. In 2023, Allen is targeting the TE position more than ever before. On non-Cover-3 plays, Allen has fed 27% of his targets to the TE position this season.
How I'm approaching this game:
I don't love Gabe Davis in this spot, but I'm in on all of Stefon Diggs, James Cook, and Dalton Kincaid.
I'd really rather avoid Washington entirely. Sam Howell has played well, and it would be really fun if he kept up with Allen and the Bills in this spot. The 18.5-point implied team total does not inspire much confidence.
Over/Under -- 44.5 points
Vikings (26.5 points - No. 8) -- 74% of Alexander Mattison's rush attempts have been zone-concept runs. This could be the bounce-back spot.
Chargers (27.5 points - No. 3) -- The Vikings have blitzed at the second-highest rate in the NFL (52%) under new defensive coordinator Brian Flores.
Justin Herbert's blitz splits:
(2022-23)
Blitzed -- 89 passer rating (27th percentile), 9.3-yard aDOT (76th percentile)
Not blitzed -- 96 passer rating (78th percentile), 6.3-yard aDOT (5th percentile)
Blitzing doesn't lower the average passer rating. Blitzing heavily is a really risky strategy. Blitzes theoretically leads to more mistakes (interception rates are actually higher on non-blitz plays); more provable with data is the fact that blitzing leads to more aggressive play from quarterbacks. That has been the case for Herbert, who ranks just fifth percentile in average depth of target when not blitzed but 76th percentile when blitzed.
Both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen have seen a huge boost to their target rates when Herbert has been blitzed. Of the two, Williams has seen a bigger boost to his per-route rates against the blitz. Big Mike looks like a priority DFS play in Week 3.
How I'm approaching this game:
If ever there was a spot for Mattison to make a statement before Cam Akers tries to cut into his workload, a projected shootout against the Chargers is it. I also could see this being an eruption spot for rookie Jordan Addison.
For the Chargers, I again consider both Allen and Williams top-15 Fantasy WR plays. Additionally, I expect that we'll see Joshua Kelley play much better in this game.
Over/Under -- 39.5 points
Browns (21.5 points - No. 17) -- Amari Cooper remains a target hog and is positioned extremely well for Week 3. I expect Elijah Moore to remain heavily involved for this Browns offense, and he's an interesting DraftKings value in this matchup.col
Titans (18 points - No. 26) -- Treylon Burks has a bottom-10 PFF receiving grade among 88 qualified wide receivers.
How I'm approaching this game:
The Browns are attackable on the ground. Specifically, they are the only team in the NFL that has been nearly as bad (5.9 yards allowed per attempt) against outside zone rushing as the Chargers. Derrick Henry and Tyjae Spears should be heavily involved in this spot.
I can't help myself but load up on Amari Cooper at his DFS price tags, and both he and Elijah Moore appear to be viable starting Fantasy options in Week 3. So, ideally, we'll see Derrick Henry break some long runs against a Cleveland defense that has struggled to contain outside zone rushing, getting the ball back into the hands of the Browns quickly rather than milking out long drives with lots of up-the-middle grinding. It could just as easily be that type of a game, though, which could result in a limited play total for Cleveland if the Browns struggle to move the chains without Nick Chubb. There's certainly risk involved with rostering any pass-catcher attached to Deshaun Watson at this point.
I'll be stacking Henry with Cooper in several DFS lineups. I want no part of the Titans pass-catchers.
Over/Under -- 36.5 points
Jets (17 points - No. 30) -- Any time that Garrett Wilson draws a defense that uses a lot of press coverage, it's worth noting. New England has pressed opponents 69% of the time in 2023.
Patriots (19.5 points - No. 23) -- No team has more opponent plays per game than the Zach Wilson-led Jets. The Patriots rank top-five in pace of play and total offensive plays through two weeks. Rhamondre Stevenson and Hunter Henry are decent bets to "get there" for Fantasy on volume.
In 2022, Jets opponents were 15% more likely to target running backs, 18% more likely to target tight ends, and 14% more likely to target the slot. Wide receivers vs. the Jets accounted for only 51% of targets – the lowest rate in the NFL. RBs facing the Jets saw 10 targets in Week 1 and 12 targets in Week 2.
How I'm approaching this game:
A 36.5-point over/under in a divisional matchup between two of the best defenses in the NFL? No thanks! I have Wilson ranked as the WR28, Stevenson ranked as the RB14, and Henry TE12. You can start them if you need to. I'd prefer not to.
Over/Under -- 46.5 points
Lions (24.75 points - No. 11) -- Amon-Ra St. Brown is playing through turf toe and has been far less likely to be targeted with Jahmyr Gibbs on the field in 2023.
The Falcons rank top-10 in both Cover-4 and Cover-6 usage. Jared Goff's passer rating when facing Cover-4 or Cover-6 is just 28th percentile. St. Brown has drawn targets at his usual high rate vs. these schemes, but his efficiency has dropped with Goff's.
Falcons (21.75 points - No. 16) -- In 2022, the Lions ranked 27th in opponent rushing success rate on zone concept runs. In 2023, they rank 22nd. No team uses zone rushes more than the Falcons. Their first two opponents both boasted units that excel at stopping zone rushing, and still Atlanta fed Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier 41 combined zone concept runs.
How I'm approaching this game:
St. Brown is still locked in as a starter, of course, but he does project significantly worse in Week 3 than usual. I worry about Detroit's play volume if Atlanta is able to control this game on the ground. Similarly, Jahmyr Gibbs is locked into starting lineups but isn't someone that I'm going out of my way to use in DFS.
Josh Reynolds has been balling, but I don't love the spot for him. I have Reynolds ranked as the WR50, just ahead of Jaxon Smith-Njigba and just behind Rashid Shaheed.
Over/Under -- 44 points
Ravens (26.75 points - No. 6) -- The Colts have been really solid against the run in 2023. And they weren't easy to run on in 2022, either. But, opponents have found some success when using power rushes vs. Indianapolis. Since the start of 2022, the Colts have allowed just 3.6 yards per rush (third-lowest) on zone attempts, compared to 4.1 (10th best) on power rushes.
The Browns (23%) are the only team that uses power rushing more than the Ravens (21%). Baltimore has one of the lowest zone rush rates (33%) in 2023. We could see Gus Edwards get rolling downhill against this defense. He's a decent flex option if Justice Hill ends up missing Week 3. I'd start Edwards over Najee Harris, Javonte Williams, and James Conner.
Colts (17.75 points - No. 24) -- Zack Moss played 99% of the snaps and ran a route on nearly every dropback in Week 2.
The Fantasy Points Data Suite ranked Moss 17th in expected Fantasy points at the RB position after Deon Jackson ranked third in Week 1. A matchup against Baltimore is about as bad as it gets, but this is a highly unusual role that we're seeing Moss play. He's firmly in flex play consideration with the RB position already in a sad state in Week 3.
How I'm approaching this game:
Mark Andrews is an auto-start, so I almost didn't mention him here. This is an interesting contrarian week to target Andrews in DFS tournaments, though. I'd rather save at the position, but he's cheaper than usual!
The rest of the Ravens are all fringe starters. I have Zay Flowers ranked as the WR31 after we saw his target rates drop significantly in Week 2. Edwards ranks as the RB27 for me.
On the Colts side of things, Michael Pittman (WR32) is an okay flex option, but this is a worse spot than he's been in over the previous two weeks.
Over/Under -- 48 points
Dolphins (27.25 points - No. 4) -- Since the start of 2022, the Broncos have surrendered 4.8 yards per outside zone rush attempt (seventh-highest). No RB has averaged more yards per outside zone rush attempt during that time than Raheem Mostert.
Broncos (20.75 points - No. 19) -- Miami's Vic Fangio-led defense ranks second in the NFL with a 25% Cover-6 rate. The league average is 8.7%. When facing Cover-6, QBs tend to attack down the field or dump the ball off. Since the start of 2022, Russell Wilson has ridiculously targeted his RB group at a higher rate (39%) than his wide receivers (38%) when facing Cover-6.
This could result in a lot of targets for Javonte Williams, who has been surprisingly involved as a target through two games. The routes haven't been there to support that type of target volume over a larger sample size, though, and Williams could come off of the field even more if Denver falls into an early hole in this game.
How I'm approaching this game:
The Dolphins use enough Cover-3 (39%) that Jerry Jeudy could still put up a decent total in this matchup, but the Cover-6 looks may be enough to frustrate Jeudy and the entire Broncos offense if Wilson shrivels up and Denver can't move the chains.
This is yet another aggressive man-heavy and blitz-heavy matchup for Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins, which again presents better for Tyreek Hill than Jaylen Waddle.
Over/Under -- 42 points
Seahawks (24.25 points - No. 12) -- Jaxon Smith-Njigba has a 2.27-yard average depth of target and the eighth-lowest PFF receiving grade among 88 qualified receivers. He also only ran a route on 53% of Seattle's dropbacks in Week 2.
Panthers (17.75 points - No. 26) -- Only Geno Smith had a lower off-target rate (6.8%) than Andy Dalton (7.1%) in 2022. Dalton ranked in the 96th percentile in completion rate and 95th percentile in passer rating vs. Cover-3, which Seattle uses a ton of (54% -- fourth-highest). Only 1.5% of Dalton's 130 attempts vs. Cover-3 were off-target.
In terms of stability in navigating the offense through holes in Seattle's soft zone schemes, Dalton is as good of a backup QB as you're going to find. I'd expect Adam Thielen to be peppered with targets in this spot. This also provides a decent boost to Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard. Dalton targeted the RB position on 25% of his attempts vs. Cover-3 in 2022.
How I'm approaching this game:
With the Seahawks listed as heavy favorites, we'll likely see a lot of 2TE sets and fewer snaps for Smith-Njigba once again. He's a pretty clear player to avoid until his usage improves. The rest of Seattle's key offensive players are clear starts with a healthy 24.25-point implied total.
With news that Dalton is in at QB, I moved Adam Thielen up to the WR46 spot in my rankings. He and Sanders (RB17) are decent plays if you're in a pinch.
Over/Under -- 43 points
Cardinals (15.25 points - No. 32) -- Zach Ertz is again in play for full-PPR formats.
Cowboys (27.75 points - No. 2) -- Tony Pollard has 12 opportunities from inside the 10-yard line in 2023. Kyren Williams ranks second with six. When inside of the 10, Dallas has given Pollard 12 of 20 total opportunities and no other RB has one.
How I'm approaching this game:
Jake Ferguson has five of six Dallas targets from inside the 10-yard line. It's been a struggle for Ferguson through two games, and he hasn't posted the type of route involvement rate that I would have liked to see. He's definitely a risky Week 3 option, but that's the case for almost every tight end. At least with Ferguson, you get multi-TD upside.
Dak Prescott ranks as the QB12 for me with the type of TD upside available to him against Arizona. I'd expect the Cowboys to lean on the ground game here, so Prescott does bring a touchdown-or-bust type of projection.
I'll be sprinkling as much of Pollard as I can into my DFS lineups, but other than that, I don't want exposure to this game.
Over/Under -- 48 points
Chiefs (30.25 points - No. 1) -- Travis Kelce played only 64% of the snaps in his first game back from a knee injury. He still had a team-high 23% target share, but his 5.9-yard aDOT combined with the snap rate suggest that Kelce may not be quite his usual explosive self.
Bears (17.75 points - No. 29) -- The Bears are massive underdogs and facing a Chiefs defense that blitzes at the eighth-highest rate (36%). We could see a lot of Roschon Johnson on passing downs.
How I'm approaching this game:
Any time that Kelce is available at a subdued rostered rate for DFS, he's interesting. But, the underlying usage data last week has me feeling more inclined to wait and see. The Chiefs player who I do have interest in for DFS purposes is Isiah Pacheco. I rarely use Pacheco in DFS, but things set up quite nicely for him in Week 3. I wrote about him and the other DFS values that I'm targeting in Week 3 if you are into that sort of thing.
Justin Fields is an interesting DFS tournament play. If we are truly going to see him let loose and rush more, Fields could put up some huge Fantasy numbers while playing catch-up. His pass-catching group feels like too thin of a play, I'd be content to just use Fields without any stacking partners.
Over/Under -- 44.5 points
Raiders (23 points - No. 14) -- It has been rough out there for Josh Jacobs, who had -8 total yards before contact through two games. Things could turn around in Week 3.
Steelers (20 points - No. 21) -- In 2022, the Raiders had the eighth-lowest opponent aDOT (7.0 yards). In 2023, Josh Allen and Russell Wilson have combined for a 4.3-yard aDOT against the Raiders. No team has allowed fewer yards per completion (7.78).
I do not like this matchup for Pittsburgh's passing attack. The Week 2 usage for George Pickens was better than its ever been, but his Week 3 matchup does not profile as a good schematic fit.
The Steelers could find success on the ground. Only the Chargers had a higher opponent success rate on zone rushes than the Raiders in 2022, and 60% of Pittsburgh's rush attempts in 2023 have come with zone blocking. The Raiders have been better (10th in success rate) against zone rushing in 2023, though, and it's tough to trust either member of a backfield that has been split evenly.
Overall, the Raiders have struggled against the run again in 2023. In the hypothetical scenario in which I had Najee Harris on a roster (I would never), I'd hope for a big performance in this matchup and then look to sell following Week 3.
How I'm approaching this game:
Pat Freiermuth should bounce back in this matchup. I wonder how healthy he is after registering an uncharacteristic one target in Week 2. I have Freiermuth ranked as the TE7 even after last week's dud.
Jakobi Meyers continued the target dominance that he exhibited as a member of the Patriots in his first game with the Raiders.
All three of Meyers, Jacobs, and Davante Adams are firmly in play in this spot.
Over/Under -- 46 points
Bucs (20.75 points - No. 19) -- There has yet to be a running back to top 30 rushing yards against the Eagles in 2023. The last time that a RB rushed for more than 90 yards against Philly was in Week 9 of 2022 (139 yards for Dameon Pierce!).
Eagles (25.25 points - No. 9) -- A.J. Brown could get back on track after a frustrating Week 2.
How I'm approaching this game:
The Eagles rank first in the NFL in Cover-6 rate (25.6%) under new defensive coordinator Sean Desai, and it looks like they're going to really focus on keeping everything in front of them with lots of two-high safety looks. Cover-6 has led to Baker Mayfield focusing on the RB position and ignoring his wide receivers in the past. This feels like a spot where we will likely see Mike Evans' insane 3.76 yard per route run rate (trailing only Tyreek Hill) regress. I'd really rather avoid all of the Tampa Bay players in Week 3, although Rachaad White likely has to start in PPR formats on a horrendous week for the RB position.
For the Eagles, we're simply starting the studs, Dallas Goedert included. D'Andre Swift is the back I'd choose from Philly, but I'd rather avoid the situation entirely until we have clarity on what the volume distribution will look like with Kenneth Gainwell back in the picture.
Over/Under -- 44 points
Bengals (23.5 points - No. 13) -- The Rams have only used man coverage 18% of the time in 2023. Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are two of the toughest man coverage assignments in the NFL, and both players have seen their per-route data (Chase, particularly) drop off when facing zone coverage. With Chase being used more than ever as a short-yardage threat, that could change.
But, on paper, this is not the get-right spot for the Bengals explosives in the passing game.
Rams (20.5 points - No. 20) -- The Kyren Williams RB1 tour continues in Week 3.
How I'm approaching this game:
Joe Burrow is down to QB15 in my Week 3 rankings. The other three primary Bengals offensive pieces are in play where you need them, while Tyler Boyd and Irv Smith Jr. remain a no-go.
We're absolutely going back to the well with Puka Nacua, and Tutu Atwell is intriguing as well. He's ranked as the WR40 in my lastest update, ahead of the likes of Jahan Dotson, Marquise Brown, and Courtland Sutton.
Qualifying SportsLine members receive a 30-day free trial of Paramount+ premium. Sync your account right here.
