Fantasy Football Week 15: Stats that matter when setting lineups, including a return to form for Dallas Goedert

If you're doing your Fantasy football research or scouring the Internet for Fantasy rankings, you need to see what SportsLine's highly-rated expert Jacob Gibbs has to say. Gibbs uses a data-driven approach that has helped him consistently provide accurate rankings at every position. He has proven to be one of the nation's most accurate Fantasy rankers in recent years -- posting the eighth-most accurate results over the past few seasons, according to Fantasy Pros.

Now, Gibbs has projected every team's stats and shared his findings for Week 15 of the 2023 season. He provided the most important research note that he found for every team and matchup to help those setting Fantasy football lineups, building DFS lineups, or placing sports bets.

One player Gibbs is especially excited for: Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert who returned to a full-time role in Week 14. Gibbs expects the targets to match Goedert's route total against Seattle in a schematic matchup that may limit DeVonta Smith's involvement. You NEED to see Gibbs' full analysis before you lock in your lineup.

So who are the best under-the-radar players to start in Week 15? And which under-the-radar running back could explode this week? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' analytics wraparound, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!

In this space, I'll provide game information and one key takeaway that I found when researching that matchup. Each team's implied point total will be in parentheses. 

If you have further questions about any team or situation for the upcoming week, please feel free to hit me up on Twitter. If I don't see your initial message, you can find me on Thursday nights and Sunday mornings, when I set aside time to answer questions on Twitter. If you turn on Twitter notifications for my account, you'll have a great chance of catching me when I'm available for questions.

Unless stated otherwise, all data referenced in this article comes from TruMedia or FantasyPoints.com. TruMedia is not publicly available, you can check out the FP Data Suite here. FantasyPoints CEO Scott Barrett joined Heath Cummings and me on Fantasy Football Today for a discussion about all of the tools that the Data Suite has to offer, if you're curious!

Here's what stood out to me as I looked ahead to Week 15.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Minnesota Vikings

Over/Under -- 40.5 points (opened at 40.5)

Bengals (21.75 points) -- Tee Higgins has been targeted on only seven of his 53 routes run with Jake Browning at QB, for a 12.5% rate. On 16 routes run when Browning has been blitzed, Higgins has been targeted twice, also for a 12.5% rate. Ja'Marr Chase, on the other hand, has been targeted on 10 of 28 routes run (36%) when Browning has been blitzed. No team blitzes more than the Minnesota Vikings.

Vikings (18.75 points) -- Among 71 players with 49+ rushing attempts, Ty Chandler ranks 68th in avoided tackle rate (10.2%). Alexander Mattison has a higher rushing success rate than Chandler. Chandler has averaged more yards before contact, which could be a skill but could also be variance as a byproduct of a small sample size (49 attempts).

The Bengals have allowed the second-highest opponent yards before contact per rush and have the second-highest opponent explosive (10+ yards) rush rate. We probably should temper our expectations for Minnesota's former Round 5 pick in his first start, but this is an ideal matchup.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Over/Under -- 42.5 points (opened at 39)

Colts (22 points) -- Among 245 defenders with at least 25 opponent targets, Pittsburgh's rookie cornerback Joey Porter Jr. has the lowest completion percentage (39.5%) allowed. Porter has allowed three catches of 20+ yards. One was a miscommunication on a zone pick-up that allowed Travis Etienne to score a touchdown on a go-route. Porter also allowed a back-shoulder grab to Ja'Marr Chase for 26 yards. The third play was a 21-yard gain allowed to Puka Nacua, where Nacua left Porter's zone and found a hole in the middle area of the field -- I guess that completion was Porter's fault. Other than that, the rookie has truly not given up any explosive plays to opposing receivers.

When facing the Browns and Bengals, Porter moved with the opposing top receiver, while we've seen him remain on the right side only for other matchups. I'd expect him to follow Michael Pittman in this matchup.

The Fantasy Points Data Suite's expected Fantasy point usage model ranked Zack Moss as the Fantasy RB6 in Week 14 after he ranked as the RB11 in Week 13.

Steelers (20.5 points) -- We now have nearly a 100-route sample of George Pickens and Diontae Johnson working with Mitchell Trubisky facilitating their opportunities, and it is not pretty.

Target per route run rate with Trubisky at QB:

16.7% -- Johnson
14.1% -- Pickens

Yards per route run with Trubisky at QB:

1.29 -- Johnson
0.72 -- Pickens

Pat Freiermuth and the running backs have been targeted a bit more than usual with Trubisky at QB, but really, it has been worse all around without Kenny Pickett.

For what it's worth, Johnson and Pickens each have been targeted at a much higher rate when facing Cover-3, and no defense uses Cover-3 more than the Colts. Pickens has actually been one of the most efficient per-route producers against Cover-3. If Trubisky is willing to take shots down the field against Indy's single-high coverage, Pickens could come down with them.

Detroit Lions vs. Denver Broncos

Over/Under -- 47.5 points (opened at 47.5)

Detroit (26 points) -- Of course, the way to attack Denver's defense is on the ground. I highlight their embarassing rush defense metrics every week. Start both Detroit running backs.

What about Amon-Ra St. Brown, though? Yes, almost definitely, you should start him. But should we expect him to bounce back in this spot?

St. Brown has a 25.6% target per route run rate while sharing the field with Sam LaPorta, which rises to 30% when LaPorta has not been on the field. Target shares of 24% and 23.5% in the previous two games are St. Brown's only two games in which he's recorded a route participation above 80% and a target share below 25% since the start of the 2022 season.

The Broncos have the sixth-lowest opponent "out wide" and slot target rate, but their opponent RB target rate ranks seventh and their opponent in-line TE target rate is the league's highest. St. Brown has been matchup-proof at times, but this is the worst that his weekly projection has looked all year.

Denver (21.5 points) -- The Lions are one of five defenses that uses press coverage at least 70% of the time. Denver's wide receivers have performed significantly worse when pressed in 2023, which is more of the same for Jerry Jeudy but is a surprise given Courtland Sutton's historic splits. I'd guess that Sutton's 2023 dropoff vs. press coverage is mostly just an example of the randomness that can come with using small sample sizes (he's run 138 routes vs. press coverage in 2023).

Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Over/Under -- 41.5 points (opened at 40.5)

Packers (22.5 points) -- Jayden Reed drew 10 targets in Week 14, and five of those came as the pre-snap motion man. And even on his other five targets, Reed's average depth of target was only 4.2 yards down the field. He finished with eight air yards on his 10 targets, which he turned into 27 receiving yards.

On the year, Reed has an aDOT of 9.7 yards, so I don't think that his Week 14 short-yardage-only role is guaranteed to stick. Much more likely to stick on a week-over-week than a player's aDOT are stats like route participation and two-receiver rate. We have yet to see Reed play in two-receiver sets, even when Christian Watson has been sidelined.

Tampa Bay has the fourth-highest situation-neutral opponent pass rate, so we may see a lot of three-receiver sets from Green Bay's offense in what is projected to be a competitive game.

Tight end Tucker Kraft ranked second in routes run (37) in Week 14, which was notably more than both Reed (28) and Dontayvion Wicks (26).

Bucs (19 points) -- Rachaad White has four career games with 75+ rushing yards, three of those have come over his past three games. Next up is a Packers defense that has allowed 106 rushing yards per game (sixth-most) to opposing running backs.

In Week 14, Mike Evans caught just one pass for eight yards against an Atlanta Falcons defense that has the third-lowest opponent "out wide" target rate, while we saw Chris Godwin pile up 11 targets. Godwin's first-read target share was a season-best 47.4% in Week 14.

The Packers have the ninth-lowest opponent "out wide" target rate and an opponent first-read target rate that's even lower than Atlanta's. Green Bay also has the league's lowest situation-neutral pass rate (48.8%), and the Buccaneers have the third-highest situation-neutral rush rate. It could be another frustratingly low-volume day for Evans.

Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons

Over/Under -- 34 points (opened at 35)

Panthers (15.25 points) -- Jonathan Mingo had back-to-back season-best volume numbers in Carolina's two most recent games as Carolina's vision is clearly set beyond the 2023 season. The additional emphasis on getting the ball in the hands of their Round 2 pick has not yielded much in terms of results, and that seems unlikely to change with a matchup against Atlanta up next. If you're truly desperate in deep leagues, you could do worse than take a chance on Mingo. The rookie has 19 targets and 154 air yards over the past two games.

Falcons (18.75 points) -- Drake London had an absolute field day in Week 14, leading all receivers with 172 yards. I watched every route he ran and was immensely impressed, which is fantastic news -- it has been a depressing year for believers in Atlanta's skill position players. London caught everything thrown his way and was wide open and not targeted at several points. He could have had 250+ yards in that game.

In Week 15, he'll face a Panthers defense that hasn't allowed 250+ passing yards since Week 6. Only three of the past 10 quarterbacks to face the Panthers has attempted 30+ passes, and only one has attempted 35+. This is the league's worst run defense, and I'd expect to get a heavy dosage of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier in this matchup. Desmond Ridder completed 15 of 18 passes against the Panthers in Week 1, while Robinson and Allgeier combined for 25 rushes.

New Orleans Saints vs. New York Giants

Over/Under -- 39 points (opened at 44)

Saints (22.5 points) -- Alvin Kamara's snap rate has dropped in four consecutive games and was down to 54% in Week 14. Jamaal Williams played 44% of the snaps and handled just one fewer rush attempt (11) than Kamara (12) in an easy win over the Panthers. The discrepancy wasn't just the product of a blowout, though, as Kamara had just two more rush attempts than Williams in the first half.

Derek Carr is once again playing through injuries, which manifested itself in a 4.2-yard aDOT. Chris Olave scored a touchdown but had just a 22.7% target share. I'm avoiding this offense if I can.

Giants (16.5 points) -- Wan'Dale Robinson recorded the third-highest first-read target share (45.5%) of any player in Week 14, and his 10-yard aDOT was higher than usual. Next up is a Saints defense with the NFL's highest opponent slot target rate.

Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans

Over/Under -- 37 points (opened at 42.5)

Titans (20 points) -- Even in a win over the Miami Dolphins, we saw just a 47% snap rate for Derrick Henry as the Titans leaned on rookie Tyjae Spears (68% snap rate) and the passing personnel more often. Will Levis threw for 327 yards, with Spears accounting for 89 of those. The rookie back's snap rate, receiving total, and target total (8) were all season-bests.

The projected game script against a Texans team that is expected to be missing C.J. Stroud, Tank Dell, and Nico Collins certainly would seem to line up for a heavy dosage of Derrick Henry on the ground, but we could see Spears emphasized in the receiving game again. The Texans have the eighth-highest opponent RB target rate and just allowed Breece Hall to catch eight of nine targets for 89 yards and a score.

Texans (17 points) -- Noah Brown had 108 air yards in Week 14 but went without a catch for the second straight game. Robert Woods was somehow less productive, turning 27 routes into -2 receiving yards. Rookie Xavier Hutchinson actually led the group with 15 receiving yards. Hutchinson ran a route on 74% of Houston's routes (just one less route than Brown and two fewer than Woods) following the injury to Collins.

Hutchinson's underwhelming athletic profile led to a Round 6 NFL Draft capital, but he was highly productive at the collegiate level.

The most likely outcome is that Houston's offense will be a mess again. A matchup against Tennessee's secondary is far more inviting than last week's, though.

Cleveland Browns vs. Chicago Bears

Over/Under -- 38.5 points (opened at 37.5)

Browns (20.75 points) -- Amari Cooper returned to the mix and immediately resumed his target domination, recording 14 targets and 172 air yards in Week 14. Cooper was Joe Flacco's first read 39% of the time, while David Njoku was the one who turned in a massive Fantasy performance in spite of just a 15% first-read target share.

Next up is a matchup against Jaylon Johnson and a Bears defense that has really bothered opposing passers in 2023. After struggling a bit to find his footing in the NFL, Johnson has come on extremely strong in his fourth pro season. Johnson's 90.9 PFF coverage grade ranks first among qualified corner backs, and his completion percentage allowed (43.5%) is almost as low as the league-leading mark (39.5%) that I cited for Joey Porter Jr. previously. In fact, Johnson's opponent target rate (11.4%) is even lower than Porter's (12.3%).

Bears (17.75 points) -- In the first game after Chicago's bye week, D'Onta Foreman and Khalil Herbert both ran more routes than Roschon Johnson in Week 14. Foreman led the way with 11 rushing attempts and a 56% snap rate and appears to be the clear first option in this backfield.

The Justin Fields-D.J. Moore connection was electric once again in Week 14. Next up is an aggressive Browns defense that uses man coverage more than any team in the NFL.

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets

Over/Under -- 37.5 points (opened at 40.5)

Dolphins (23 points) -- Raheem Mostert was entrusted with 21 rushing attempts in Week 14, compared to just seven for De'Von Achane. In the red zone, the Mostert recorded a 92% snap rate and handled all six RB rush attempts. Achane was more involved as a route runner (54% route participation) and actually led the team with nine targets. Mostly, Achane served as a check and release option for Tua Tagovailoa (who was under a ton of pressure against the Titans), but there was plenty of designed opportunities as well. Achane led the team with six routes and two targets as a pre-snap motion man. He also lined up out wide and was targeted on a go-route that he and Tagovailoa almost connected on.

Next up is a Jets defense with the highest opponent RB target rate in 2023. The Jets have been so effective at taking away opposing wide receivers that teams have instead leaned on the short passing game, but it's worth noting that both Miami receivers pushed for 100+ receiving yards against New York in Week 12. The Jets were missing Michael Carter II for that game.

Jets (14.5 points) -- The Dolphins have one of the least aggressive defenses, ranking 28th in press coverage and 30th in blitz rate. Miami uses Cover-6 at the second-highest rate (still just 22%), but otherwise is around the league average in most coverage tendencies. Cover-6 typically leads to fewer targets for opposing WR1s, and Garrett Wilson's career data when facing Cover-6 is slightly worse than when facing other zone coverages.

The blitz and press coverage tendencies are probably more important for Wilson, as things have gone better when Zach Wilson has been forced to make quick decisions and put the play into the hands of his star receiver. Garrett has been much more likely to draw a target when Zach has been blitzed than when not, and he's already established himself as one of the best press coverage beaters. Hopefully, what we saw from the Wilson-Wilson connection was not a random one-week thing, but this week's matchup against Miami does feel like a perfect one to facilitate a frustrating Zach Wilson game. Over the past two seasons, Wilson has a 15.9% off-target rate (worst) and 59% completion percentage (second-worst) when facing Cover-6, and he's targeted Garrett Wilson on only 20.9% of his routes within that split.

Breece Hall has a team-high 24% target per route run rate (34 route sample size alert) within that split, and we could see him become the offensive emphasis against Miami's "umbrella" coverage schemes. Tyjae Spears just went for 89 receiving yards against this defense on Monday night. Both Hall and Wilson are good enough to put up massive numbers in this spot, the limiting factor is of course Wilson's ability to facilitate their opportunities. New York's 14.5-point implied team total doesn't inspire much confidence, does it?

New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Over/Under -- 37 points (opened at 46.5)

Patriots (14.5 points) -- Speaking of 14.5-point totals, maybe we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves with our Ezekiel Elliott expectations in Week 15. Zeke was the RB2 in the FantasyPoints Data Suite's expected Fantasy point model based off of his Week 14 usage. And next up, he faces a Chiefs defense that ranks near the bottom of most rush defense grading metrics. He's a must-start, right?

The Chiefs have actually been decent against man/gap concept runs, which the Patriots use more than any team. Notably, 77% of Elliott's rush attempts in Week 14 were man/gap concept runs. The Chiefs have the fifth-worst defensive success rates and second-worst yards per rush allowed against zone rushes but are middle of the pack when it comes to splits vs. man/gap concept runs. The Patriots were not efficient in running the ball in Week 13, the offense found more success than expected through the passing game. Kansas City's defense presents a much more difficult matchup through the air, it will be no surprise if the Bailey Zappe-led Patriots offense implodes in this spot. I get it if you want to play Elliott, but I don't view him as a must-start (RB18) and don't consider him a must-play at his DFS price point.

Chiefs (22.5 points) -- Rashee Rice's Week 14 route participation was by far the highest of his rookie season, which was partially due to Kansas City increasing the offensive pass rate to 71% without a competent early-downs rusher. Kansas City's first-down rush rate was higher, too.

The Patriots have been the most-difficult team to rush against in 2023, which is so wildly impressive considering the injuries that the defense has sustained and the fact that the defense is repeatedly put in disadvantageous scenarios by the offense. I do not expect Clyde Edwards-Helaire to find much success on the ground. It will be interesting to see if Kansas City abandons the run or simply lets Edwards-Helaire grind this week away. Either way, I don't feel great about Rice in this matchup. The Pats are beatable but not an easy matchup, and New England uses one of the most man coverage-heavy attacks defensively. Rice has been a zone-beater to this point in his career, and he was more efficient when working the slot against zones at the collegiate level too. The volume has been good enough lately that Rice is a top-24 Fantasy WR in my Week 15 rankings, but I'm not starting him ahead of Zay Flowers, DeAndre Hopkins, or DeVonta Smith.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Washington Commanders

Over/Under -- 50.5 points (opened at 42)

Rams (28.5 points) -- The 49ers are the only team with a higher implied point total than the Rams in Week 14. The matchup boost given by this Washington Commanders defense is out of control. The Commanders rank last in pressure rate since trading away Montez Sweat and Chase Young, and their secondary giving up big plays has been the one constant factor in a chaotic 2023 season.

To me, Puka Nacua feels like the player who is most likely to benefit from Washington's issues defensively. Cooper Kupp has reverted to a short-yardage manufactured touches type of role from the slot over the past few weeks, and he doesn't appear to have the same burst. A game similar to last week's feels available to him, but I'd be surprised if Kupp pushed for much more than that in the role that he's currently playing. Nacua, on the other hand, has topped 100 air yards in each of the past two games. He could get open deep multiple times for touchdowns in this game, in addition to his usual volume. A monster game outcome is available to Nacua in a way that Kupp would have to have an extreme outlier (3+ touchdowns) type of performance to reach. He'll be my most-rostered player in DFS Week 15 builds.

Kyren Williams didn't score last week, but he's inevitable. A matchup against the Commanders is, of course, one where Williams could finish as the top scorer in Fantasy.

Commanders (22 points) -- The Rams have one of the NFL's most vanilla defenses, taking a hands-off approach that should benefit Terry McLaurin and Logan Thomas. Tight ends have found success in this matchup, so Thomas is legitimately in play as a desperation play.

If Brian Robinson misses this game, I'd expect Antonio Gibson to play roughly 65% of the snaps with the potential for more if the Commanders get into shootout mode. I have Gibson ranked as the RB25, behind the Steelers backs and ahead of Jerome Ford and James Conner, under the assumption that Robinson is out. If both players are active, Robison ranks as the RB30 and Gibson as the RB36.

Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers

Over/Under -- 47.5 points (opened at 46)

Cardinals (17.5 points) -- The last time we saw the Cardinals, Trey McBride accounted for 8 of 13 total team receptions and 89 of 145 receiving yards. He's done nothing but win with the opportunities that he's been given, so McBride has my trust as a weekly starter and DFS building block, even in difficult matchups.

49ers (30 points) -- The Cardinals use two-high safety coverage at the second-highest rate (64%), and Deebo Samuel has been significantly better against two-high coverages. Samuel's first-read target rate rose from just 11.8% in his Week 13 breakout game to a team-high (tied with Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle) 28.9% rate in Week 14. It would be no surprise for Samuel to be the offensive centerpiece against this Arizona defense.

Buffalo Bills vs. Dallas Cowboys

Over/Under -- 50.5 points (opened at 49)

Bills (26.25 points) -- Stefon Diggs completely dominated the first-read target share for Buffalo in Week 14. Diggs had a 41% rate, second on the team were James Cook and Dalton Kincaid tied at 14%. Kincaid still drew a 22% target share overall, though, because he gets open. Also encouraging was Kincaid's route total -- he tied Gabe Davis for the team lead, even with Dawson Knox back in the mix.

The Cowboys have the second-highest single-high safety coverage rate defensively, which has led to more targets for Diggs in 2023. His target per route run rate rises to 30%, while Kincaid and Davis both see slight dips in their target rates vs. single-high. Of course, Diggs will have his hands full.

Diggs and James Cook will likely be the determining factors for Buffalo's offensive success in this spot. Cook has been an integral part of the offense since the offensive coordinator change, and his Fantasy results have mirrored that increase in usage. His Week 15 matchup is a tough test and could slow his recent efficiency surge, though.

Cowboys (24.25 points) -- The Bills have the fourth lowest opponent first-read target rate and the second highest opponent RB target rate. CeeDee Lamb runs a ton of slot routes, but he's clearly developed into much more than an over-the-middle threat and data suggests that he's at his best when working down the field. One such data point is Lamb's per-route rates when facing single-high safety coverages. With just one safety to help, receivers who are able to beat one-on-one perimeter matchups can quickly pile up splash plays, and Lamb's rates are significantly better against single-high safety coverage than when facing two-high.

The Bills rank third in two-high safety coverages. Jake Ferguson and Tony Pollard are the two who have seen their rates rise when facing two-high coverages.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Baltimore Ravens

Over/Under -- 42.5 points (opened at 39.5)

Jaguars (19.5 points) -- Zay Jones has stepped right in as the top target for Trevor Lawrence over the past two games.

Ravens (23 points) -- Jacksonville has the third-highest opponent situation-neutral pass rate (63%), and we saw the Ravens tie a season-high in situation-neutral pass rate in Week 14. Since Keaton Mitchell has become more integrated into the offense, the Ravens have become more pass-heavy. Baltimore's two top single-game situation-neutral pass rate data points each occurred within the past three games. Zay Flowers ran 53 routes in Week 14. The only other players who fell in that range last week were Calvin Ridley (55), Zay Jones (53), and Evan Engram (49). See what I did there? These teams could produce massive play volume.

This game's point total is a good reminder of how fragile offensive environments are in the NFL. I'm excited about this game, but it's not as if it's projected for 50 points. Of the two offenses, I definitely trust Baltimore's more. We should see a healthy offensive environment for Flowers, Isaiah Likely (he ran 48 routes last week!), and Odell Beckham Jr. to post Fantasy-relevant results. Whether or not those players put up another huge route total likely depends on Lawrence and the Christian Kirk-less Jags putting points on the board against a Baltimore defense that gave up an uncharacteristic 31 points to the Rams in Week 14.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Over/Under -- 47.5 points (opened at 47)

Seahawks (22 points) -- The Eagles are one of eight defenses that use single-high safety coverage at least 60% of the time, and of those teams, Philadelphia's 0.54 Fantasy points per dropback allowed in that scheme is by far the highest. Only the Commanders have a higher rate.

DK Metcalf's per-route data jumps off the page when facing single-high safety coverage.

Metcalf vs. two-high coverage:

• 17% target per route run rate
• 1.93 yards per route run  
  

Metcalf vs. single-high coverage:

• 30% target per route run rate
• 2.62 yards per route run

Eagles (25.5 points) -- The Seahawks use press coverage at the seventh-highest rate (68%) and are third in Cover-3 rate (47%). Both tendencies tend to steer quarterback's attention to top targets.

Tyreek Hill has a 3.83 yard per route run rate vs. press coverage since the start of 2022. A.J. Brown's rate is 3.40, and Mike Williams (3.01) is the only player to hit the 3.00 mark. Jalen Hurts struggled against Cover-3 in 2022 but has better splits against it this year. Only Mike Evans has a higher yard per route run rate vs. Cover-3 than Brown in 2023.

DeVonta Smith's per-route data was notably worse when facing Cover-3 (the NFL's most-common coverage scheme, so the sample size is rather large) in 2022, and that has not changed in 2023. Dallas Goedert's rates have been mostly unaffected, although the overall zone usage (84% -- league-high) the Seattle's defense brings make this a favorable matchup for him.

Goedert was in no way limited in his return. He ran just one fewer route than Brown. I've actually moved him ahead of Likely, Kincaid, and Njoku. His offensive environment is better than all but Kincaid's, and I like his matchup much more.

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