Brock Purdy 2023 NFL season odds, props: 49ers quarterback cleared for practice, has clear path to starting job after injury

Many NFL fans who don't follow Iowa State football very closely had little to no idea who San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy was as the final pick of the 2022 draft and a longshot to make the Niners' roster. After being forced into action following injuries to Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo, Purdy had one of the most unexpectedly successful rookie seasons in league history before suffering a serious injury of his own in the NFC title game loss in Philadelphia. Purdy has been officially cleared, though, and will have his first full training camp practice Thursday.

Purdy, who holds several records at Iowa State, was third on the QB depth chart at best entering 2022 training camp behind Lance and Garoppolo. Lance suffered a season-ending injury in Week 2, and Garoppolo was hurt in Week 13. Purdy relieved Garoppolo and led a win over Miami, and then went 7-0 as the starter, including playoff wins over Seattle and Dallas, before suffering a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing elbow in the first quarter of the 31-7 NFC Championship Game loss to the Eagles.

The game was essentially over at that point. Backup Josh Johnson was overwhelmed and eventually got hurt himself. Purdy actually came back in for a spell once Johnson was injured, but the rookie could not throw the ball. Star running back Christian McCaffrey essentially closed the game as the QB. Thus, Purdy still hasn't lost an NFL game he finished.

He had surgery to repair the UCL on March 10. The procedure was initially projected to sideline him for six months, putting his status for the start of the season in question, so he's way ahead of schedule. Overall in nine regular-season games in 2022, Purdy completed 67.1% of his passes for 13 touchdowns and four picks. His rating of 107.3 was the best in the league. He was third in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting. 

The sportsbooks are holding off on putting up individual statistical over/under season props for Purdy until the young quarterback shows that he's healthy.

Brock Purdy 2023 props currently active at DraftKings/FanDuel

• To throw for at least 4,000 yards: +300
• To throw for at least 5,000 yards (no 49ers QB has): +1400
• To pass for at least 350 yards in three games: +150
• To throw at least 30 TD passes: +220
• To have at least five rushing TDs: +1400
• To win NFL MVP: +5000
• To lead NFL in passing yards: +7000
• To lead NFL in passing TDs: +4000
• To lead NFL in interceptions: +2500

Garoppolo is now in Las Vegas, so all Purdy has to is beat out the injury-prone and inexperienced Lance and former draft bust Sam Darnold (21-34 as a starter in the NFL) to win the starting job. Darnold might actually be the No. 2 right now, as he reportedly looked much better than Lance this offseason.

Purdy will be on a bit of a pitch count at first but will start to get the bulk of his reps with the starting offense Thursday. Head coach Kyle Shanahan and GM John Lynch said repeatedly throughout the offseason Purdy would be the "leader in the clubhouse" to start when healthy.

"He will [be with the starters] when he's out there," Shanahan said. "The throwing plan's a little different. We're never going to have him go three days in a row."

Since Shanahan and Lynch took over in 2017, only one San Francisco quarterback -- Garoppolo in 2019 -- has started every game in a seaon. San Francisco opens the 2023 campaign on Sept. 10 in Pittsburgh as a 3-point favorite. Purdy is 6-2 against the spread as a starter, including the playoffs. The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts him for 212 passing yards, 1.26 TDs and 0.64 picks against a good Steelers defense. 

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