Beyond the Boxscore: Fantasy Football 2023 Week 13 Lineup Advice from proven expert

Each week, we're going to go beyond the boxscore and dive into the most interesting situations from around the NFL and discuss how they might shape the Fantasy landscape for the upcoming week. My hope is that you leave this article feeling at least a little bit more confident in the reasoning behind your lineup decisions.

I'm going to give advice in this space and hope to be right more than wrong, but most importantly, I hope that you leave these columns with a clearer and fuller understanding of what goes into my rankings here on SportsLine. I'm excited to peel back the curtain a bit and invite you to start thinking about your lineup decisions in a less linear way. We're trying to move away from this player ranks two spots higher than this player, so he's the one to start – lineup decisions are almost always more dynamic than that!

I do my best to create space to answer lineup advice questions on Twitter throughout the week, you might catch me there. My goal is to be more present and available to help SportsLine members with their Fantasy lineup decisions this season. I can't get to every question, though, so I hope that these tiers and comparisons help you feel more confident in your start/sit decisions. Below, you'll find the situations that stood out the most to me when making important lineup decisions.

One player Gibbs is especially high on in Week 13: Kansas City rookie receiver Rashee Rice. The underlying data has been excellent for Rice all season, and he draws an ideal schematic matchup against Green Bay in Week 13. Rice highlights a tier of wide receivers that is difficult to navigate in Week 13, but Gibbs sorted through all of the potentially Fantasy viable WR to help managers make their start/sit decisions with the Fantasy playoffs nearing. Gibbs is also all in on a veteran running back! You NEED to see Gibbs' analysis before you lock in your lineup.

So who are the best under-the-radar players to start in Week 13? And which wide receiver should you fade? Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' weekly lineup advice, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!

Keep D'Andre Swift locked in your lineup, even against the 49ers

The 49ers have one of the best defenses in the NFL, no doubt. I'm not so sure that their run defense is as impenetrable as some base line metrics may suggest, though.

The Niners haven't faced many tough tests on the ground in 2023. Kyren Williams put up 28 PPR points against this defense. Joe Mixon's best rushing output of the season came against San Francisco. Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt combined for 131 yards rushing against the Niners. San Francisco bottled up Travis Etienne and Tony Pollard, and those are honestly the two most impressive performances on this rush defense's resume.

Peel back the curtain on this defense, and some advanced data can be found that points towards this being a winnable matchup for D'Andre Swift and the Philadelphia ground game. San Francisco ranks 24th in defensive rushing EPA, 21st in defensive rushing success rate, and 21st in missed tackle rate.

I was shocked to see that Swift was ranked as just the RB19 (according to FantasyPros expert consensus) in a week with six teams on bye. He's finished higher than RB19 in Fantasy in 7 of 10 games since taking over as the starter. Swift is the RB12 in my Week 13 rankings. I'd start him comfortably ahead of Breece Hall, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Javonte Williams.

I have him ranked ahead of David Montgomery, Zack Moss, and Bijan Robinson as well. Robinson's underlying usage rates fell off in Atlanta's first game following a bye week, and I don't feel particularly enthused about trusting his production in a game that could yield very little offensive production (34-point over/under -- lowest in Week 13) on either side as the Falcons take on the Jets.

Devin Singletary and Jerome Ford look like trustworthy options

The low-end RB2 range is expectedly messy with six teams on bye. Here's how I have that range ranked:

RB18 -- Jaylen Warren
RB19 -- Breece Hall
RB20 -- Devin Singletary
RB21 -- Zach Charbonnet
RB22 -- Najee Harris
RB23 -- Jerome Ford
RB24 -- Joe Mixon
RB25 -- Brian Robinson
RB26 -- James Conner
RB27 -- A.J, Dillon

Of that group, the only backs who don't feel like total desperation plays are the Pittsburgh duo, Devin Singletary, and Jerome Ford. The Steelers' run blocking unit has dominated the battle up front over the second half of the season, and this is a clear winnable spot for Pittsburgh's run game. The Steelers have a much higher than usual implied point total (23) in the second game of the post-Matt Canada era and are are 5.5-point home favorites. Start your Steelers.

Trusting Singletary or Ford may feel a bit riskier, but I feel good about the setup for both backs. Ford saw a career-best 75% route participation in Week 12, and the result was 35 routes run and seven targets. If Joe Flacco is able to move the chains against a hands-off Rams defense that invites offenses to win with long methodical drives, we could see surprisingly high offensive play volume in Cleveland. Ford may top his career-best route run total from Week 12 in Week 13. From a workload standpoint, Ford profiles extremely similarly to Joe Mixon, and I think that I actually trust his offensive environment more than Mixon's. The Bengals have the lowest implied team total (15.5 points), while the Browns are implied for 18 points. Also, Ford has shown some semblance of big play ability, which we haven't seen much of from other "bet on workload" backs like Mixon or A.J. Dillon.

Even with Dameon Pierce back in the mix, Singletary still logged an 81% snap rate in Week 12. It only amounted to 18 rushing yards on six carries, but that makes sense to me given the opponent that Houston faced. The Jaguars have surrendered the fewest rushing yards per game (59) to opposing running backs and have the third-highest opponent pass rate. So, rather than continuing to pound the rock with Singletary, the Texans took to the air, and we saw Singletary finish with 6-54 receiving on seven targets.

The Week 13 matchup couldn't be much sharper of a 180 turn, as the Texans face a Broncos defense that has been by far the easiest to attack with the ground game. If I knew that we could for sure pencil Singletary in for the 81% snap rate that he logged in Week 12, I would rank him as a top-12 Fantasy RB in the same range as Rachaad White and Isiah Pacheco. I'm expecting Pierce to get a bit more involved in this spot, but there's still plenty of room for Singletary to put up a massive game with the Texans implied for the third-highest total (25.5 points) of the week.

Sorting out the WR position is especially difficult this week

My Week 13 wide receiver rankings mostly fall in line with the expert consensus through the first 14 names, and that's where the chaos begins. Beyond that, there's a massive group of wide receivers who could lead their team in targets and put up a big game. Here's how I'm sorting out that group:

(WR15) Calvin Ridley -- Schematic fit against the Bengals is working in Ridley's favor. If the Bengals don't pose a threat offensively, there may be no need for Trevor Lawrence to push the ball down the field.

(WR16) Christian Kirk -- Cincinnati has been susceptible over the middle of the field, and Kirk is playing the best ball of his career. Continue to start him with confidence.

(WR17) Adam Thielen -- Tampa Bay's blitz-heavy pass-funnel defense is a perfect matchup for Thielen to soak up 12+ targets if Carolina's offensive line is able to allow Bryce Young to sustain drives.

(WR18) Diontae Johnson -- Arizona's hands-off "umbrella" defensive approach stays on top of everything, which allows route runners to consistently find space over the middle of the field. Pat Freiermuth and Johnson should eat in this spot, George Pickens is less likely to see perimeter targets.

(WR19) Puka Nacua -- If Cooper Kupp's Week 12 move back to the slot sticks in Week 13, Nacua could find success with more perimeter routes against a Cleveland defense that ranks first in single-high safety coverage use. Nacua has performed well against press coverage, and he'll see a lot of it in this spot. Denzel Ward has yet to practice for the Browns leading up to this game (as of Thursday's practice report).

(WR20) DeAndre Hopkins -- No defense uses Cover-3 more than the Colts (55%), and DeAndre Hopkins ranks fifth in target per route run rate vs. Cover-3. Ryan Tannehill only threw for 264 scoreless yards against the Colts in Week 5, but 140 of those were accounted for by Hopkins.

(WR21) Terry McLaurin -- Even in a bad Sam Howell game, Washington produced 300 receiving yards in Week 12. Both Curtis Samuel (12) and McLaurin (11) finished with double-digit targets. Against a Dolphins offense that is implied for nearly 30 points, Washington's offense will almost certainly lean pass-heavy. Nothing about the matchup stands out -- in fact, I don't like this spot for Howell -- it's just hard to ignore the raw projectable receiving volume that McLaurin is looking at in this spot.

(WR22) DK Metcalf

(WR23) Josh Downs -- Week 12's matchup set up as a clear Michael Pittman spot. The Buccaneers have been beaten by opposing first-read targets and perimeter receivers all year and were missing top cover corner Jamel Dean. It felt like a lock to be a high-volume game for Pittman, and he ended up with a team-high 13 targets. Well, it was a tie for the team-high, actually. Downs was targeted 13 times in his first game back from a knee injury that limited him in Weeks 9 and 10. The production (5-43 receiving) wasn't exciting, but I watched all of his targets and thought that Downs displayed the same burst and suddenness that we saw when he was producing more efficiently at earlier points in the season. Gardner Minshew simply missed him on a lot of throws.

The Week 13 matchup is another that favors Pittman from the perimeter, but Downs did catch all six of his targets for 97 yards against this secondary (with Kevin Byard playing) in Week 5. This could absolutely be an eruption spot for the rookie.

(WR24) Cooper Kupp -- The Rams are trying to get Kupp going. L.A. has a healthy 21.5-point implied total for this game, and we could see Kupp bounce back. There's significant risk, though. The NFL average pressure rate defensively is 36%, Cleveland's defense has finished with a pressure rate of 37% or higher in every single game this season. Even with Myles Garrett banged up, this pass rush is scary. Matthew Stafford has the third-highest off-target rate and the third-lowest completion percentage vs. pressure.  

(WR25) Courtland Sutton -- The Broncos have leaned on Sutton, but this is a brutal matchup. Cornerback Derek Stingley was the third overall selection in the 2022 NFL Draft and has been targeted at the lowest per-snap rate of 115 cornerbacks with at least 150 coverage snaps in 2023. The Texans have the second-lowest opponent "out wide" target rate. Sutton feels (even more than usual) like a touchdown-or-bust play.

(WR26) Rashee Rice -- Green Bay's coverage tendencies favor Rice, but this is a Packers defense that invites opponents to beat them on the ground. If Jordan Love makes mistakes against an aggressive Steve Spagnola-called defensive attack, it would be no surprise to see Rice finish with 4-7 targets as the Chiefs lean on Isiah Pacheco. Also, Kadarius Toney is expected to be back for this game, and I believe that Rice's increase in screens and designed touches in Week 12 had a lot to do with Toney's absence.

(WR27) Garrett Wilson -- The Falcons are one of the best defenses at taking away opposing WR1s. Garrett Wilson is one of the absolute best press coverage beaters, but A.J. Terrell is a tough assignment. And even if he does beat Terrell, do we feel any confidence in accurate passes being delivered to him? Last week felt like a near best-case outcome in terms of QB play and a target share that was mega-concentrated on Wilson, and it resulted in a 7-44-1 receiving line and a WR23 overall finish in half-PPR scoring formats.

(WR28) Marquise Brown -- The Steelers defense uses a lot of single-high safety coverages, which typically has resulted in more targets for Hollywood Brown. Joey Porter Jr. might be a problem, though.

Brown has struggled with physical press coverage at times in his career, and that's exactly what he can expect in this matchup.

(WR29) Amari Cooper -- I have so much respect for the effort that Amari Cooper has put up in 2023. The dude has stayed winning consistently each week, and he has very little to show for it as a member of one of the least productive passing offenses. Heading into Week 13, Cooper is dealing with a ribs injury and yet another new QB. I actually think that there's an outside chance that Joe Flacco ends up being a great fit for Cooper, though. Flacco was laser-focused on Garrett Wilson during his time with the Jets, and he ended up being by far the best facilitator of any of the QB's that Wilson endured. That's all that Cooper needs, someone to keep this offense in rhythm and deliver catchable balls to him on the easy wins. He's been open consistently, and nothing that we've seen from L.A.'s coverage this year has me worried that won't be the case for Cooper again in Week 13.

(WR30) Tyler Lockett

(WR31) George Pickens -- The schematic fit favors the over-the-middle targets for Pittsburgh, but Pickens also has a favorable matchup on the outside against corners who are simply underequipped to deal with NFL-caliber perimeter receivers. A big game is within his range of outcomes, but it does not feel likely. Pickens hasn't seen more than six targets or finished higher than WR45 in Fantasy in any of his past five games.

(WR32) Chris Godwin -- Godwin has delivered just two top-20 Fantasy WR performances this year and has finished outside of the top-30 in all but four games. He's a bit banged-up heading into his Week 13 matchup, and a very realistic outcome exists in which Tampa Bay only produces 25-30 dropbacks against the Panthers. Carolina has been so easy to attack on the ground. Of the past eight quarterbacks to face Carolina, only one has attempted more than 35 passes and only three have hit 30+.

It's entirely possible that the Buccaneers will build an early lead and lean on the ground game in this spot. Tampa has just a 43% pass rate when playing with a lead, only the Jets (41%) have a lower rate.

(WR33) Christian Watson -- There's upside for Watson in this spot, but he is going to have his hands full with L'Jarius Sneed and Kansas City's physical press-coverage. As I detailed in this week's game-by-game guide, Jordan Love has been quick to check down when blitzed, which has resulted in diminished target rates for both Watson and Romeo Doubs against the blitz. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Watson only sees four or five targets with Love constantly under pressure against Kansas City, and if he doesn't create explosive plays, his targets are likely to be quite inefficient against this secondary. Watson always brings a boom/bust outlook, Kansas City's defense adds more volatility to the outlook of opposing pass-catchers than maybe any unit in the NFL.

(WR34) Brandin Cooks

(WR35) Jahan Dotson -- The same logic applied to McLaurin fits Dotson in this matchup, but his target share is even less stable than McLaurin's on a week-to-week basis.

(WR36) Jayden Reed -- Love's most-targeted player when blitzed is Jayden Reed. The rookie has been electric, and we may see him on the field more than usual if Green Bay falls behind early and is forced into primarily using three-receiver sets. Trent McDuffie is a tough assignment from the slot, but Reed is a baller. Give him 30-40 routes, and Reed has a decent shot at delivering Fantasy-relevant results in any matchup.

(WR37) Jerry Jeudy -- The way to beat Houston's defense has been on the ground and in the short and intermediate passing game. Jeudy has been an albatross for those who drafted him in Fantasy, but this may be the matchup that finally delivers a big game.

(WR38) Curtis Samuel -- Like Jayden Reed, Samuel should be expected to register a higher than usual route participation in a game where his offense may have to abandon the run and use more three-receiver sets. And like Reed, Samuel has been really good on a per-route basis. He has the highest target per route run rate among Washington's receivers and could see a ton of looks against Miami's zone-heavy coverage unit.

(WR39) Tyler Boyd -- Speaking of zone-heavy coverage units, the Jacksonville defense invites offenses to beat them with over-the-middle throws. I don't expect Jake Browning to beat them, but if he does make over-the-middle throws, a lot are likely to be targeted at Tyler Boyd.

(WR40) A.T. Perry -- A 2023 sixth-round pick, Perry is a 6-foot-5 rangy athlete and fits into a true "X" receiver archetype. He was super productive at Wake Forest, and I expected him to be a Round 4 pick. Instead, he fell to Round 6 and has barely played as a rookie. Perry looked good during preseason action, though, and we saw him make a highlight touchdown catch (the one where Jameis Winston threw all the way across the field) in his first extended action. I'm projecting as if Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed will both miss this game, and Perry looks pretty appealing within that framework.

This game has the fifth-highest over/under in Week 13, and the Saints are expected to be playing from behind. Detroit's defense has shown some susceptibility to the deep ball -- Detroit has the fifth-most opponent deep targets (15+ air yards) per game and the 10th-highest opponent passer rating on deep passes -- and if Derek Carr connects with Perry early in the game, I'd expect him to continue to test this secondary.

Sorting out the fringe starter range at each position

Those were the player-specific situations that stood out to me as worth discussing in detail this week. Each week, we'll wrap up this start/sit journey by sorting out the fringe starter range of my rankings at each position.

QB 

Jordan Love (QB13), Gardner Minshew (QB14), and Kenny Pickett (QB15) mark the cut-off point for players who I want to start at the position in Week 13. Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield, Matthew Stafford, and Bryce Young are all decent fringe starters if you're in a pinch.

This week's "no questions asked" starters include Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa, Dak Prescott, C.J. Stroud, Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy, and Trevor Lawrence. Beyond that, here's how I'm categorizing the position this week:

Group 1: Quarterbacks with question marks but upside to push well north of 20 Fantasy points

Tier 1 -- Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Jared Goff
Tier 2 -- Sam Howell, Jordan Love, Derek Carr
Tier 3 -- Baker Mayfield, Matthew Stafford, Geno Smith, Bryce Young, Will Levis

If you're looking for upside, these are your guys.

Implied point total for each quarterback's team:

25 -- Goff
24.75 -- Purdy
22.75 -- Herbert
21.5 -- Stafford
21 -- Mayfield
20.5 -- Carr
20.5 -- Levis
20 -- Howell
18.75 -- Smith
18 -- Love
17.5 -- Murray
15.5 -- Young

Group 2: Quarterbacks who feel like safe bets to post a score that doesn't hurt your lineup

Tier 1 -- Russell Wilson, Minshew, Pickett
Tier 2 -- Browning, Flacco

RB 

This week's "no questions asked" starters include Christian McCaffrey, Travis Etienne, Alvin Kamara, Tony Pollard, Austin Ekeler, Kyren Williams, Derrick Henry, Raheem Mostert, Jahmyr Gibbs, Isiah Pacheco, and Rachaad White. Beyond that, you can find how I'm sorting out the position below.

Group 1: There's definitely upside!

Tier 1 -- D'Andre Swift, David Montgomery, Zack Moss, Bijan Robinson, Javonte Williams, Jaylen Warren, De'Von Achane (Q)
Tier 2 -- Breece Hall, Devin Singletary, Jerome Ford
Tier 3 -- Brian Robinson

Group 2: Safe starters if you don't have a higher-upside option that you prefer

Tier 1 -- Rhamondre Stevenson, Zach Charbonnet, Najee Harris
Tier 2 -- Joe Mixon, James Conner, Chuba Hubbard

Group 3: Plays that make sense in theory, but I'm not excited by their projection

Tier 1 -- A.J. Dillon, Kareem Hunt
Tier 2 -- Tyjae Spears, Dameon Pierce, Tyler Allgeier, Antonio Gibson
Tier 3 -- Ezekiel Elliott, Miles Sanders, Samaje Perine

WR 

The Week 13 must-start group of wide receivers ends with DeVonta Smith, Tank Dell, Deebo Samuel, Ja'Marr Chase, and Nico Collins as the WR10-WR15. Here's who comes next:

Group 1: I think we can trust these players

Tier 1 -- Christian Kirk, Adam Thielen, Diontae Johnson
Tier 2 -- Puka Nacua, DeAndre Hopkins, Terry McLaurin, Josh Downs, Rashee Rice
Tier 3 -- Chris Godwin, Brandin Cooks, Curtis Samuel, Tyler Boyd
Tier 4 -- Elijah Moore

Group 2: Mystery Box

Tier 1 -- Calvin Ridley, Cooper Kupp, DK Metcalf
Tier 2 -- Marquise Brown, Tyler Lockett, Amari Cooper, George Pickens
Tier 3 -- Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Jahan Dotson, Jerry Jeudy, A.T. Perry

Group 3: Desperation Plays

Tier 1 -- Courtland Sutton, Garrett Wilson
Tier 2 -- Drake London, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Romeo Doubs
Tier 3 -- Justin Watson, Jonathan Mingo, Rondale Moore

TE 

Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Trey McBride, and Sam LaPorta are the tight ends I consider must-starts for Week 13.

Group 1 -- Upside shots

Tier 1 -- Taysom Hill, Pat Freiermuth, Dalton Schultz, Jake Ferguson
Tier 2 -- Juwan Johnson, Logan Thomas, Kyle Pitts
Tier 3 -- Hunter Henry, Tucker Kraft

Group 2 -- I'm just looking for eight points, honestly

Placement in Group 2 doesn't indicate that I prefer a Group 1 TE. You can find my full Week 13 rankings here for help navigating specific positional start-sit decisions.

Tier 1 -- Evan Engram, David Njoku
Tier 2 -- Cade Otton, Jonnu Smith, Tyler Conklin

Group 3 -- You can find a better option, right?

Tier 1 -- Gerald Everett, Tyler Higbee, Chigoziem Okonkwo, Donald Parham
Tier 2 -- Tanner Hudson, Noah Fant, Tommy Tremble, Kylen Granson

Good luck with your lineup decisions this week! Be sure to hit me up on Twitter during one of the Q&A's, when I set aside time for lineup questions!

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