Fantasy Football Week 13: Stats that matter when setting lineups, including a potential breakout game for Bryce Young

If you're doing your Fantasy football research or scouring the Internet for Fantasy rankings, you need to see what SportsLine's highly-rated expert Jacob Gibbs has to say. Gibbs uses a data-driven approach that has helped him consistently provide accurate rankings at every position. He has proven to be one of the nation's most accurate Fantasy rankers in recent years -- posting the eighth-most accurate results over the past few seasons, according to Fantasy Pros.

Now, Gibbs has projected every team's stats and shared his findings for Week 13 of the 2023 season. He provided the most important research note that he found for every team and matchup to help those setting Fantasy football lineups, building DFS lineups, or placing sports bets.

One player Gibbs is especially excited for: Carolina Panthers rookie QB Bryce Young in a potential get-right matchup against the Buccaneers.

Tampa Bay brings one of the most aggressive defensive blitz packages into this matchup, and as Gibbs noted, "a blitz is actually a good thing for Carolina's offense, as it slightly increases the chance of Adam Thielen or Jonathan Mingo finding a one-on-one matchup that they can win. If defenses simply sit back and let Carolina's offense try to create wins, the Panthers are in trouble. This Bucs defense is extremely aggressive, though, and we've seen numerous quarterbacks take advantage of a secondary that is far-too-often left in a vulnerable position." You NEED to see Gibbs' full analysis before you lock in your lineup.

So who are the best under-the-radar players to start in Week 13? And which under-the-radar running back could explode this week? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' analytics wraparound, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!

In this space, I'll provide game information and one key takeaway that I found when researching that matchup. Each team's implied point total will be in parentheses. 

If you have further questions about any team or situation for the upcoming week, please feel free to hit me up on Twitter. If I don't see your initial message, you can find me on Thursday nights and Sunday mornings, when I set aside time to answer questions on Twitter. If you turn on Twitter notifications for my account, you'll have a great chance of catching me when I'm available for questions.

Unless stated otherwise, all data referenced in this article comes from TruMedia or FantasyPoints.com. TruMedia is not publicly available, you can check out the FP Data Suite here. FantasyPoints CEO Scott Barrett joined Heath Cummings and me on Fantasy Football Today for a discussion about all of the tools that the Data Suite has to offer, if you're curious!

Here's what stood out to me as I looked ahead to Week 13.

Washington Commanders vs. Miami Dolphins

Over/Under -- 49.5 points (opened at 49, meaning bettors have hit the Over this week)

Commanders (20 points) -- This Dolphins pass defense has been decent, but opposing offenses attack this defense through the air (often out of necessity). Miami has a 61% opponent pass rate, which is the eighth-highest. The Commanders have an NFL-high 68% pass rate, and we could see the run game abandoned completely if Washington falls behind. It's well within the realistic range of outcomes for Washington's receivers to run 50+ routes in this spot, as long as Sam Howell can move the chains.

That may be a problem. Miami's defense ranks sixth in pressure rate, even with just the fourth-lowest blitz rate (21%). We saw Howell crash back to Earth against one of the NFL's best pressure units on Thanksgiving, but even in a 10-point effort, the Commanders offense was able to produce 300 receiving yards with both Curtis Samuel and Terry McLaurin recording double-digit targets.

According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, the Dolphins rank top-10 in both the percentage of targets that go to "out wide" receivers and the percentage of opponent targets that were the offense's first read. Miami's coverage-specific tendencies are mostly right in line with league average. One note that stood out -- Miami's man coverage rate (21.8%) falls below league average (24%), and that rate is down to just 11.8% over the past month. Howell has been better vs. man coverage, and his average depth of target (aDOT) drops from 9.2 yards vs. man to 6.9 when facing zone. For reference, the NFL averages are 8.8 and 7.4 yards.

Dolphins (29.5 points) -- There is no conceivable top to the range of outcomes for the Miami offense in this matchup. No offense has showcased more explosiveness than Mike McDaniel's, and no defense is more vulnerable to chunk plays through the air (and on the ground, to a lesser extent) than the Commanders. Washington's defense is aggressive, ranking sixth in man coverage and 12th in blitz rate, and they don't create nearly enough pressure to repeatedly leave their leaky secondary with one-on-one assignments.

The Miami offensive pieces are, of course, extremely expensive for DFS purposes. Even trying to just pair Tyreek Hill with Tua Tagovailoa is price prohibitive. The most price-effective way to get exposure to a potential eruption spot from Hill is to pair him with Sam Howell and one or two Washington pass-catchers.

Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts

Over/Under -- 42.5 points (opened at 40.5)

Titans (20.75 points) -- By far the best game of DeAndre Hopkins' 2023 season came against this Indianapolis defense in Week 5. Ryan Tannehill only threw for 264 scoreless yards, but 140 of those were accounted for by Hopkins. The Colts use Cover-3 at the highest rate (55%) in the NFL, and Hopkins is one of only five receivers with a target per route run rate above 30% when facing Cover-3.

On the ground, the Titans struggled to get Derrick Henry (13-43 rushing) going against the Colts in Week 5. Opposing offenses have found success moving the ball on the ground against Indy, though. The Colts rank bottom-10 in rush defense success rate and EPA per rush allowed. Rachaad White needed only 15 attempts to rush for 100 yards vs. Indy in Week 12, and the combination of Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott totaled 142 yards on the ground before that. This matchup could turn out much differently for Henry in December than it did in early October.

One last note -- the Colts rank 31st in blitz rate (19%), and Will Levis has been much better when not blitzed. Against the blitz, Levis ranks 26th in passer rating, but he's 11th vs. the blitz.

Displayed below are Levis' off-target rate splits vs. the blitz relative to the NFL average.

Off-target rate when blitzed:

11.6% -- NFL average
14.5% -- Will Levis

Off-target rate when not blitzed:

10.4% -- NFL average
8.9% -- Will Levis

Colts (21.75 points) -- According to the FantasyPoints Data Suite, the Tennessee Titans have the highest opponent first-read target rate (78.6%) and the second-highest opponent "out wide" target rate (47.8%). Michael Pittman has the eighth-highest first-read target rate (35.8%) on the year, and he was the first read on all 13 of his targets in Week 12.

Josh Downs had nearly as many targets (12) as Pittman in Week 12, and 10 of those were first-read looks. Tennessee's defense has funneled more targets to the perimeter than the slot, but Downs continues to push for more targets each week and feels on the precipice of a big game. Tennessee's defense boasts the fifth-lowest blitz rate and eighth-lowest pressure rate, so Gardner Minshew should have time to find both of his top targets open often against this Titans secondary.

Quick reminder -- Zack Moss totaled 195 yards and two touchdowns against the Titans in Week 5.

New York Jets vs. Atlanta Falcons

Over/Under -- 34 points (opened at 36.5)

Jets (16 points) -- In Tim Boyle's first start with the Jets, he delivered a competent 79% catchable target rate (thanks in large part to a 5.1-yard aDOT) in a conservative game plan centered around Garrett Wilson (42% first-read target rate). That, my friends, is a 10/10 outcome for Wilson as he endures yet another QB change.

The result was a 7-44-1 receiving line and a WR23 overall finish in half-PPR scoring formats. Excellent. If everything goes right for him, low-end WR2 type of production remains available for Wilson.

Breece Hall finished with a season-high seven receptions in Week 12, and next up is a zone-heavy Falcons coverage unit. Atlanta's opponents have not targeted the RB position at a high rate, for what it's worth. But what the Falcons defense is best at is slowing down or erasing opposing wide receivers, as evidenced by their opponent "out wide" target rate of just 37%. Only the Jets and Texans have a lower rate.

Maybe we'll see more Tyler Conklin targets, but it feels quite possible that Hall will have more designed opportunities as a pass-catcher as a counter to Atlanta's defensive attack.

Falcons (18 points) -- New York's opponent "out wide" target rate is an unbelievable 32%. New York's opponent "first read" target rate is 59.5%. The next-lowest rate belongs to New England, at 65.7%.

Teams have mostly given up on passing the ball against the Jets. New York's opponent pass rate is the lowest (50%) in the NFL, and none of Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen (twice), Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, or Tua Tagovailoa have topped 280 passing yards against the Jets.

New York has conceded a lot of yards on the ground, but that's to be expected of a defense that is perpetually stuck facing an opponent who is playing with a lead. The actual rushing efficiency metrics all paint the Jets as a top-eight unit against the ground game.

Running backs also can be expected to see a boost in targets against this defense, as a league-high 23% of opponent targets vs. the Jets have gone to the RB position. They have to go somewhere, right? Wide receivers aren't on the menu, which has resulted in New York's defense being the only unit in the NFL to rank top-12 in opponent target rate to the slot, in-line tight end, and running back positions. I'm providing a sizable matchup downgrade to Drake London's projection. Kyle Pitts also is downgraded in this spot, as he spends a decent amount of time lined up out wide. We could see a boost in receiving involvement for Bijan Robinson. That'd be cool! But, we all know that the answer is just going to be more Jonnu Smith targets.

Robinson's route participation spiked to 85% as his role grew for a Week 10 game that followed a week's worth of questions for the Falcons decision makers about their star RB's usage. The Falcons had a bye in Week 11, and Robinson's rate fell back to 58% in Week 12.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals

Over/Under -- 41.5 points (opened at 40)

Steelers (23.5 points) -- In the first game without Matt Canada, the Steelers used fewer three-receiver sets, ran on first down more often, and oh yeah -- produced 400 yards of offense, a feat which proved unattainable for Canada during his 58-game tenure as offensive play caller.

We also saw a willingness to push the ball over the middle of the field from Kenny Pickett in Week 12.

As Scott Barrett pointed out, the matchup against Cincinnati set up well for Pat Freiermuth and the over-the-middle targets.

Scott joined Fantasy Football Today last week to discuss the importance of understanding more advanced layers of defensive matchups, such as which teams leave the middle of the field open more than others and how those tendencies affect each passing game differently.

According to the FantasyPoints Data Suite, the Cardinals leave the middle of the field open at the second-highest rate.

Target per route run rate vs. single-high or "middle-field-closed" coverage:

29% -- Diontae Johnson
25% -- George Pickens
16% -- Pat Freiermuth

Target per route run rate vs. two-high or "middle-field-open" coverage:

26% -- Pat Freiermuth
25% -- Diontae Johnson
17% -- George Pickens

The specific coverage types that Arizona uses make this a great spot for Freiermuth on paper, while I'm a bit worried about target volume for Pickens. Also worrisome for Pickens -- Arizona only uses press coverage 36% of the time defensively, the second-lowest rate in the NFL. Among 60 qualified wide receivers, Pickens ranks 16th in yards per route run when facing press coverage. When not facing press coverage, he ranks 41st.

One final note on the passing matchup -- Arizona ranks 30th in both blitz and pressure rate defensively.

Pittsburgh's target per route run rate when the QB has not faced pressure:

29% -- Diontae Johnson
26% -- Pat Freiermuth
21% -- George Pickens

On a 36-route sample in which all three have been on the field together and the QB has not been pressured, Freiermuth has 12 targets, Johnson has 10, and Pickens has two. If including 2022 reps in which all three pass-catchers and Pickett were on the field together (and Pickett wasn't pressured), we get a 221 dropback sample size in which Johnson has a 27% target share, Freiermuth a 26% share, and Pickens only a 17% share.

This could be the perfect matchup for Johnson to get right in a big way. It also would be no surprise to see another big game from Freiermuth, but it's worth noting that he only logged a 66% route participation rate in Week 12 as the Steelers continue to ease him back into his full role.

The Arizona defense isn't much better at stopping the ground game. Only the Broncos have allowed more rushing yards per game to the RB position, and the Cardinals rank bottom-three in both defensive rushing success rate and defensive EPA per rush. Both Pittsburgh running backs project as top-24 Fantasy options at the position in Week 12.

Cardinals (18 points) -- The first two defenses that Kyler Murray faced upon returning in Week 10 were the Atlanta Falcons and Houston Texans. Atlanta ranks 29th in single-high safety coverage use, while Houston ranks 24th. The Texans are 31st in opponent "out wide" target rate, Atlanta is 30th. These are brutal schematic matchups for a perimeter wide receiver like Marquise Brown. We saw Trey McBride leaned on heavily in those matchups. In Week 12, Arizona faced a Rams defense that is league-average in single-high safety coverage, and Marquise Brown saw his highest target total (12) of the season.

The Steelers rank fourth in single-high safety coverage rate and eighth in opponent "out wide" target rate. Brown is presented with a much different type of schematic matchup in Week 12, and it could be exactly what he needs to get his season on track.

Marquise Brown's target per route run rate splits by safety coverage types:

19% -- Two-high safety coverage
27% -- Single-high safety coverage

Marquise Brown's yard per route run rate splits by safety coverage types:

0.89 -- Two-high safety coverage
1.97 -- Single-high safety coverage

It has come on a limited sample size, but Trey McBride has a healthy 25% target per route run rate when facing single-high safety coverage. I wouldn't view this matchup as a significant downgrade. McBride will likely still get his, especially if Joey Porter Jr. bothers Brown.

James Conner's route participation dropped to 31% in Week 12, but it was due to blowout. His rate was 50% through the first three quarters. Still, a 50-60% rate isn't enough for Conner to be relevant in Fantasy. He has just six total receiving yards in three games since returning from injury and hasn't topped double-digit PPR points in any of them.

New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions

Over/Under -- 47 points (opened at 46.5)

Saints (21.25 points) -- The Saints are likely to be without Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed in Week 12. Rookie sixth-round pick A.T. Perry was highly productive at Wake Forest and during preseason action, but he has only drawn six targets on 74 routes over the past two games.

We have no way of knowing what to expect from a volume standpoint -- probably a ton of Alvin Kamara, but the game script and matchup both present a chance for a big showing from Perry. Detroit's defense has been incredible against the ground game, but the Lions secondary has certainly been suspect. Most recently, we saw Jordan Love take the top off of this defense. And that's nothing new -- Detroit has the fifth-most opponent deep targets (15+ air yards) per game and boasts the 10th-highest opponent passer rating on deep passes.

Kamara, Taysom Hill, and Juwan Johnson are all likely to be heavily involved and are decent starts. I highlighted Perry in this space because he is the less-known factor. I get it if people prefer to take a wait-and-see approach with considering Perry for Fantasy purposes, but this is an intriguing opportunity for him.

Lions (25.75 points) -- The Saints have an opponent passer rating of 25.6 on passes traveling 15+ air yards. Only the Baltimore Ravens (21.8) can beat that mark. In fact, those two teams are the only ones with a rate below 60. The league average is 89.

New Orleans has the fourth-lowest opponent "out wide" target rate. The Saints rank fourth in man coverage and third in press coverage, and still, offenses have not found any success in one-on-one matchups down the field.

Instead, offenses have hammered Detroit's slot coverage for a league-high 38% slot target rate. Amon-Ra St. Brown's slot rate is right at 50% in 2023, so he should see plenty of layups from the inside in this matchup. And with Marshon Lattimore (ankle) on I.R., St. Brown may find more success creating explosive plays from the perimeter than other receivers have against this defense. The Lions have the fourth-highest implied team total, and this game has the fifth-highest over/under. Even though these two defenses have a lot of positive metrics, points are expected to be scored in this matchup. There's sneaky upside for a blow-up game from the Sun God in Week 13.

The Saints haven't faced many threatening pass-catching tight ends and still rank eighth in opponent "in line" tight end target rate. In Week 10, T.J. Hockenson caught 11 of 15 targets for 134 yards and a score against New Orleans. Sam LaPorta has taken a bit of a back seat with all of Detroit's offensive pieces healthy, but it is well within the range of outcomes for him to be a big part of Detroit's expectedly big offensive output against a defense that funnels targets to the middle of the field.

New Orleans has the fourth-lowest opponent RB target rate, which makes sense given their heavy use of much man coverage. After completely shutting down opposing Fantasy running backs through the first six weeks, the Saints have proven to be a winnable matchup for high-end Fantasy running backs. Both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs get a matchup downgrade in Week 12, but they're both still top-15 Fantasy RB options.

New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Over/Under -- 40.5 points (opened at 42.5)

Patriots (18  points) -- It has felt like Rhamondre Stevenson has really been coming around after a horrendous start to the season, but the Patriots have been so irrelevant that I haven't dug into his data much. So, I did for the purpose of this article, and yeah -- everything is trending up.

Here's some fun Rhamondre Stevenson data:

• 78% snap rate in Week 12 (season-high)
• At least a 14% target share in six straight games. He only hit that mark once and topped out at 14.8% in his first five games.
• Yards after contact per rush rate below 2.2 in each of his first six games, followed by five-straight games with a rate of 2.67 or higher.
• 12.8% avoided tackle rate and 1.82 yards after contact per rush in his first six games
• 21.7% avoided tackle rate and 3.93 yards after contact per rush in the five most-recent games.

The Chargers have been better against the run in 2023, but we saw David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs combine for 193 yards and three scores on the ground against L.A. in Week 10. Last week, Baltimore's backs turned 22 rushes into 121 yards.

Chargers (23.5 points) -- According to the FantasyPoints Data Suite, no defense uses man coverage more than the Patriots. Over the past two seasons, Austin Ekeler has an 18% target per route run rate vs. man coverage, down from 30% vs. zone. That's pretty typical for the RB position. New England's man-heavy defense is bottom-10 in opponent RB target rate, and only Kendre Miller (53 yards) has finished with 50+ receiving yards vs. this defense.

I bring this up because the Patriots are still quite effective at slowing down opposing top targets. Only the Jets have a lower opponent first-read target rate than New England. If the Pats can slow Keenan Allen down, then who is going to be targeted? Quentin Johnston and Jalen Guyton have been invisible out there. Maybe it will just be a ton of inefficient opportunities for Ekeler.

The Miami receivers are the only ones who have produced explosive Fantasy points against this Patriots defense. There have been plenty of quality receivers who still were able to muster a respectable Fantasy point total, though. I'd expect Allen to do the same. I don't expect Justin Herbert to be able to force 15+ targets to him again, though.

Houston Texans vs. Denver Broncos

Over/Under -- 47.5 points (opened at 44)

Texans (25.5 points) -- The Broncos gave up some big games to wide receivers early in the year, but this secondary has not been one to test recently. As a result of Denver's impressive cornerback play, the Broncos have the third-highest opponent RB target rate and fourth-highest opponent in-line TE target rate; their opponent slot target rate ranks 31st, and their opponent "out wide" target rate is 26th.

Schematically, Denver's defense is extremely vanilla. Middling rates define this defense. Denver uses Cover-3 (the most common coverage type) a bit more than usual, ranking sixth. Nothing else stands out. C.J. Stroud, Tank Dell, and Nico Collins are locked into starting lineups, but this matchup is much different than the recent dream run of soft coverage.

The elephant in the room, of course, is Denver's embarrassing inability to tackle. The ease with which opponents are able to move the ball on the ground really dictates the entire experience for Denver's defense and whichever offense faces it each week. The next-highest yards per rush allowed to the RB position is 4.8, Denver is allowing 5.8. The next-lowest missed tackle rate is 15.3%, Denver is all the way up at 17.5%.

If you remove the blowout Dolphins game, Denver still has a 16% missed tackle rate and 5.3 yards per rush allowed rate to the RB position.

No qualified running back avoided tackles at a higher rate than Dameon Pierce in 2022. Pierce has not looked the same in 2023, and his avoided tackle rate reflects it. He doesn't feel like as natural of a fit for Houston's zone-based rushing scheme, and that's backed by the FantasyPoints data -- Pierce has been significantly more efficient on man/gap rush attempts.

Pierce only played 19% of the snaps in his first game back from an extended absence, so he's absolutely not a trustworthy option in Week 13. But, if you're desperate for a flex, you could do worse than targeting a running back who is facing the Denver Broncos. I have Pierce ranked as the RB32 (ahead of Ezekiel Elliott and Miles Sanders), while Singletary is the RB23 in my Week 13 rankings. Singletary's 81% snap rate in Week 12 provides him with the potential for an eruption game in this spot, and he's worth considering for DFS purposes. His limited workload on the ground in Week 12 may have had more to do with the matchup against a pass-funnel Jags defense than anything else. Jacksonville has a 64% opponent pass rate (30th). The Broncos have a 55% rate (8th).

Broncos (22 points) -- The Texans have the second-lowest opponent "out wide" target rate and fifth-highest opponent slot target rate. Derek Stingley, Houston's third overall selection in the 2022 NFL Draft, missed most of the season. I had to expand the sample size to a minimum of 150+ routes covered, and when I did, I found Stingley standing atop a group of 111 players as the least-targeted cornerback in football on a per-snap basis.

Joining him in the top-10 lowest is teammate Steven Nelson. Those two play on the perimeter, while Tavierre Thomas covers the slot. Thomas has eighth-highest opponent target rate among 111 qualifiers.

Courtland Sutton has just a 19% slot rate in 2023. If Jerry Jeudy (groin) is able to suit up, he's the guy to take advantage of this matchup.

After Travis Etienne's contributions, the Texans now are tied for the league's lowest opponent yards per rush on RB carries in 2023. The only back to put up an efficient rushing line against Houston was Zack Moss (18-88-1 in Week 2). Outside of Bijan Robinson (14-46 rushing in Week 5), Moss is the most efficient rusher that the Texans have had to contend with.

So, will Javonte Williams find success on the ground? One potentially telling stat on this Houston defense -- in spite of a league-low yards per RB rush rate, the Broncos are the only team with a higher missed tackle rate on RB rush attempts than the Texans. It makes you think, doesn't it? The Broncos are implied for a healthy 22 points. This could be a Fantasy bounce-back spot for Williams!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers

Over/Under -- 37 points (opened at 40)

Buccaneers (21.25 points) -- The Panthers have been so easy to attack on the ground that the pass defense hasn't been tested much. Of the past eight quarterbacks to face Carolina, only one has attempted more than 35 passes and only three have hit 30+.

It's entirely possible that the Buccaneers will build an early lead and lean on the ground game in this spot. Tampa has just a 43% pass rate when playing with a lead, only the Jets (41%) have a lower rate. Rachaad White is coming off of his first 100-yard rushing game and has an ideal setup for an encore.

If the Bucs do attack through the air, we could see another awesome performance by Mike Evans. The Panthers rank second in Cover-3 use (54%), and only CeeDee Lamb, Nico Collins, A.J. Brown, and Keenan Allen have averaged more yards per route run vs. Cover-3 than Evans.

Panthers (15.75 points) -- The Bucs blitz at the third-highest rate in the NFL (39%). Bryce Young has a higher passer rating when blitzed than when not. The problem is not an inability to find open route runners, but rather that there are not open route runners to be found. A blitz is actually a good thing for Carolina's offense, as it slightly increases the chance of Adam Thielen or Jonathan Mingo finding a one-on-one matchup that they can win. If defenses simply sit back and let Carolina's offense try to create wins, the Panthers are in trouble. This Bucs defense is extremely aggressive, though, and we've seen numerous quarterbacks take advantage of a secondary that is far-too-often left in a vulnerable position.

Adam Thielen's target per route run rate vs. the blitz splits:

21.1% -- not blitzed
26.7% -- blitzed

Adam Thielen's yard per route run rate vs. the blitz splits:

1.49 -- not blitzed
2.09 -- blitzed

Jonathan Mingo's target per route run rate vs. the blitz splits:

14.7% -- not blitzed
18.3% -- blitzed

Adam Thielen's yard per route run rate vs. the blitz splits:

0.68 -- not blitzed
1.12  -- blitzed

A return to form for Adam Thielen could come in this spot. A mini Jonathan Mingo breakout is possible. If the Bucs are again missing Jamel Dean and Lavonte David, it's possible that this matchup will yield one of the best offensive performances that we get from Young and the Panthers all season. If you are looking for an off-the-wall spot to build a game stack for DFS purposes, you could stack the Panthers pass game pieces with Mike Evans. If the Panthers keep this game close enough for Tampa to remain balanced offensively, Evans could post a huge game.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Cleveland Browns

Over/Under -- 40 points (opened at 43)

Rams (21.75 points) -- The Rams experimented with more perimeter work for Cooper Kupp in 2023 than ever before. With the emergence of Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell, neither of whom profile as a prototypical "X receiver," one logical potential response was to ask Kupp to win outside more.

In Week 12, the Rams reverted back to Kupp working almost entirely (85% of his routes) from the slot.

I bring this up because the Browns are the only team to use single-high safety coverage over 70% of the time defensively. Only two teams even have a rate above 65%, Cleveland's rate is 73%. Single-high or "middle-field-closed" often leads to more perimeter targets and fewer slot opportunities. Kupp (2.61 yards per route run vs. single-high) and Nacua (2.66) have both performed well vs. single-high coverage, and Kupp has an elite 30% target per route run rate vs. single-high.

With Cleveland looking likely to again be without Denzel Ward, I would have viewed this as a winnable matchup for Kupp from the perimeter. But if Kupp is going to be working more from inside, I actually am more into Nacua as a bounce-back candidate.

More important than any of this matchup-specific stuff is Cleveland's pass rush. It doesn't matter what is happening beyond the line of scrimmage if the offense is consistently losing the battle at and behind the line of scrimmage. The Browns rank second in pressure rate (44.6%), and their lowest single-game rate of the season is 36.7%. That's insane. The league average is 35.7%, Cleveland hasn't dropped below that once in 11 games.

Pressure is a problem for Matthew Stafford. He's completed only 41.5% of his passes when pressured, ranking 29th among 32 qualifiers. His off-target rate vs. pressure is the third-highest in the league.

I want to feel cautiously optimistic about the Rams because of their implied team total and how much better the rushing game looked with Kyren Williams back, but I worry about the drive killing potential that Cleveland's defensive pressure creates.

Browns (18.25 points) -- I'm leaning towards ignoring this game for DFS, but I also am tempted by the idea of building game stacks around Joe Flacco. He's $4,600 on DraftKings! The Browns pieces are cheap across the board, and Kyren Williams is definitely too cheap on DraftKings. If Flacco is able to sustain drives against a hands-off Rams defense that invites opponents to beat them with methodical drives, we could get a surprising amount of offensive volume from this game.

Speaking of surprising volume, Jerome Ford ran 35 routes and drew seven targets in Week 12! Ford logged a 75% route participation that was by far his highest career mark. With Kareem Hunt questionable for Week 13, Ford could be looking at a bell-cow workload with a QB who is well-known for taking easy yardage on dump-off's to the RB position.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers

Over/Under -- 47.5 points (opened at 45.5)

Eagles (22.5 points) -- DeVonta Smith has recently led Philadelphia in targets, which we have seen him do at times (in which Dallas Goedert was also sidelined) before. It's possible that what we've seen recently is just a matchup-based result, though.

Graham does terrific work. The target volume absolutely could swing back towards A.J. Brown in this matchup.

The matchup looks gnarly for Swift on the ground, and the Eagles have a surprisingly low implied team total. I will note, though, the 49ers have had a super easy schedule of opposing RB's.  Some metrics suggest that San Fran's defense can be beaten on the ground. The Niners rank 24th in defensive rushing EPA, 21st in defensive rushing success rate, and 21st in missed tackle rate.

49ers (25 points) -- I heard Hayden Winks of Underdog Fantasy mention that when all three of Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle have been healthy for a game together, it has actually been Samuel who has had the highest expected Fantasy point rate, so I went to Tru Media to find splits with all three on the field.

Maybe the gap between Aiyuk and Samuel will naturally widen as Aiyuk continues to establish himself as clearly the best pass-catcher in the offense. This week's matchup presents a fantastic opportunity for Brock Purdy to find Aiyuk open down the field, and if it turns into a shootout, we could see an aggressive Purdy lock in on Aiyuk against this secondary.

Philadelphia ranks seventh in single-high safety coverage, and while Aiyuk has crushed any coverage type thrown at him in 2023, he's been particularly good when facing single-high coverage. Aiyuk's yard per route run rate is up from 3.18 vs. two-high safeties to 3.59 vs. single-high. Deebo Samuel's target per route run rate drops from 30% vs. two-high to 19% vs. single-high.

Green Bay Packers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Over/Under -- 42.5 points (opened at 41)

Packers (23 points) -- Steve Spagnola's Chiefs defense is extremely aggressive, ranking second in press coverage rate and fourth in blitz rate. This defense combined with Green Bay's super-green group of young offensive playmakers creates all sorts of wild possibilities. Jordan Love has played much better lately. This Chiefs pass defense will be the toughest that he's faced in over a month, though.

When blitzed, Love has targeted Jayden Reed more than any other player. Even though his route total is much lower than Romeo Doubs, Reed has 22 blitz targets to Doubs' 18. Doubs has been targeted more on plays where Love has time to let his routes develop, so his drop to just a 16% target per route run rate vs. the blitz wasn't a huge surprise. He will have his hands full with L'Jarius Sneed and Kansas City's physical secondary.

Christian Watson hasn't been targeted at a high rate when blitzed either. I expected to find that Love has aggressively attacked down the field against the blitz, because I see him make a lot of aggressive throws in general. His aDOT and time to throw are way down when blitzed, though.

If Green Bay surprises and takes an early lead for the second-straight week, A.J. Dillon could find more success on the ground than he did against the Lions. Kansas City ranks 30th in defensive rushing EPA.

Chiefs (24.5 points) -- With both Kadarius Toney and Mecole Hardman sidelined, Rashee Rice picked up more screens and designed touches in Week 12. His playing time increased, but only barely.

Rice's Week 12 was exciting, as his whole season has been. I fear that he remains unpredictable, though, and the Packers have the league's fourth-highest opponent rush rate. We could see a ton of Isiah Pacheco and only 30-35 Patrick Mahomes dropbacks in this game.

When Kansas City does attack through the air, they will be facing a lot of Cover-3. The Packers rank fourth with a Cover-3 rate of 46.4% and are third in single-high safety rate (64.6%).

I expected Rice to have better splits against two-high safety coverages, because he's mostly operated as a zone buster. Pleasant surprise, though, we have a 100-route sample size of Rice against single-high coverage, and he's dominated. That's a good long-term signal. When facing single-high coverage, Rice has a 31% target per route run rate and team-high 3.26 yards per route run.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Over/Under -- 38.5 points (opened at 41)

Jaguars (23.75 points) -- As has been detailed many times in this space, Calvin Ridley has had to contend with a brutal schedule when it comes to facing opponents who limit targets to perimeter wide receivers. In Week 13, he draws a Bengals defense that ranks bottom-10 in target rate to "out wide" receivers, but there are several other data points that indicate that Ridley could create explosive plays in this matchup.

The Bengals rank just 21st in press coverage use, and press-heavy coverage schemes have bothered Ridley at times this year. Cincinnati also is just 19th in blitz rate (26%), which is important because Trevor Lawrence has been the worst QB in the NFL when blitzed.

One final matchup note working in Ridley's favor -- the Bengals rank sixth in single-high safety coverage rate.

Travis Etienne's usage rebounded in Week 12, but the production has yet to come around. This matchup could be the one to help him right the ship. Cincinnati has the seventh-highest missed tackle rate on RB rushes, the fifth-lowest defensive rushing success rate, and the fourth-highest opponent explosive rush rate.

Bengals (15.25 points) -- The Jaguars have surrendered the fewest rushing yards per game (59) to opposing running backs and have the third-highest opponent pass rate. Joe Mixon might be a viable Fantasy option through target volume, but it's unlikely that he'll add much on the ground.

We'll likely see a lot of Tyler Boyd in this matchup. Jacksonville uses a ton of "umbrella" zone coverage to keep everything in front of them, so Boyd and Ja'Marr Chase are the logical candidates to soak up short-yardage targets.

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