2023 AL Central MLB odds: Twins favored over Guardians, history would be made if division champion has losing record

While the NFL has had a division champion with a losing record as recently as last year and a few times overall, it has never happened in modern Major League Baseball history. It might in 2023, as no team in the American League Central will have a winning record coming out of the All-Star break Friday. The Twins are -175 favorites at Caesars Sportsbook with the Guardians at +150.

Defending Central champion Cleveland leads the division at 45-45 despite a minus-7 run differential. Most "experts" will tell you that run differential is a better indicator of how good or bad a team really is. Minnesota is a half game behind the Guardians at 45-46 but has the only positive run differential in the division at plus-27.

This is the first time since 2008 that an MLB division has no teams with a winning record at the break. That year, Arizona led the NL West at 47-48, but the Dodgers won it at 84-78. There very well could have been a division winner with a losing record if the 1994 players' strike hadn't wiped out the rest of the season, as Texas led the AL West that year despite a 52-62 record when the players walked out.

The 1981 Royals reached the playoffs with a 50-53 record during the strike-shortened season, but went 30-23 following the strike to earn a AL West Division Series berth against the first-half-winning A's.

DraftKings gives the Twins an over/under updated season total of 83.5 – which was the exact same number it was in the spring – and the Guardians an O/U of 81.5 after they were set at 86.5 in the spring. Terry Francona's club won 92 games in 2022, but the rotation has been hit hard by injuries this year.

On the division straight forecast, MIN/CLE is +115 and CLE/MIN +180. It's almost surely going to be division title or bust for the Central teams, because the AL East and West Divisions are so much deeper and will gobble up the wild card spots. Boston is in last place in the AL East with a 48-43 record, but would be leading the Central by 2.5 games. Minnesota is five games out of the final wild card spot and still behind four other teams as well (including the Red Sox).

Because of the new schedule format, the Twins and Guardians only have six games remaining against one another, with one three-game series in each city and not after Sept. 6. There's no question the AL Central champion will be the one division playing in the wild card round in the AL, as was the case last year with Cleveland (which beat Tampa Bay).

That an AL Central team wins the World Series is +1500, which is ahead of only an NL Central club (+1800). 

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