Having a good understanding of each rookie's skillset and how they will fit in at the NFL level is no easy task. Fantasy experts Jacob Gibbs and Scott Engel took on that task and broke down every rookie's Fantasy fit on their new teams for SportsLine members. Read about every rookie's landing spot here.
Fantasy Winners:
Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys
Adding CeeDee Lamb to Dallas' offense gives Dak Prescott one of the most talented receiving corps in the NFL. Amari Cooper has thrived when running routes from the slot in recent years, and this pick suggests that he will likely be used in that capacity even more often in 2020.
Cooper's slot rate fell from 24 percent with Dallas in 2018 to just 14 percent last year. With Randall Cobb gone and Lamb added, expect more slot work for Amari in 2020. Since becoming a Cowboy, Cooper has averaged 2.74 yards per route run from the slot. Not only is the significantly higher than his 2.14 yards per route run from the perimeter, but it is the second-best mark in the entire NFL.
Some see this as a loss for Cooper, but I'd expect his volume to be there regardless. And now he has the potential for increased efficiency while seeing less defensive attention and going to work from the slot against worse coverage corners.
Jalen Reagor, Philadelphia Eagles
Reagor was one of my favorite wide receiver prospects in the 2020 draft, and he couldn't have landed in much better of a spot. Nelson Agholor's play has been abhorrent in recent years. Among 67 receivers who saw at least 60 targets in 2019, Agholor ranked dead last in yards per route run. He saw 95 and 97 targets in 2017 and 18, and he was on pace for 100 before injury last year.
Agholor had every opportunity to succeed out of the slot in Philly, but couldn't capitalize on it. Now given that opportunity, and potentially more, if Philly's investment in the receiver position is an display of their belief in the aging Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson duo, Reagor could put up some monster numbers in Fantasy.
Davante Adams and Allen Lazard, Green Bay Packers
The Packers were among the teams most expected to add a receiver from the loaded 2020 class, but instead they elected to select a backup quarterback, running back, and tight end/fullback hybrid. Jimmy Graham ranked second on the team in red zone targets during each of the past two seasons, but he'll be a member of the Chicago Bears in 2020. It's also worth noting that the Lions signed former Packers wideout Geronimo Allison, who ranked second among Green Bay wideouts in snaps in 2019.
As a result, Allen Lazard, Devin Funchess, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are left as the top complementary options available to Aaron Rodgers. Lazard saw significantly more playing time and targets down the stretch than MVS, so I'd expect him to get first crack at WR2 duties. His 1.62 yards per route run in 2019 is better than any other of Rodgers' second receiver options have posted over the past three years, and it's not even close. In fact, that mark is higher than what Adams or Randall Cobb posted while working as the WR2 to Jordy Nelson in 2015 or 16, so Lazard might actually be able to capitalize on this opportunity and be a steal at the back end of Fantasy drafts in 2020.
Adams finished second among receivers in Fantasy scoring during the 2018 season, but a turf toe injury caused him to miss four games in a slightly disappointing 2019 Fantasy season. Still, Michael Thomas is the only receiver who has averaged more Fantasy points per game than Davante Adams over the past two seasons. And while he didn't average as many Fantasy points in 2019 as he did the year prior, his 16-game pace for targets of 169 would have tied his career-high. Adams also averaged a career-best 2.33 yards per route run in 2019, good for the third-best mark among receivers with 100 targets.
So why the discrepancy between his 2019 Fantasy average and 2018, when he was the number two WR in Fantasy? Quite simply, it just came down to a bizarre inability for Rodgers and Adams to connect in the end zone.
From 2016-18, Adams averaged 2.4 red zone targets per game. In 2019, he averaged 2.5. From 2016-18, he averaged 0.91 end zone targets per game. In 2019, he also averaged 0.91.
From 2016-18, Adams scored a touchdown on 29 percent of his red zone targets and 45 percent of his end zone targets. In 2019, he scored on 17 percent of his red zone targets and 18 percent of his end zone targets.
Considering every other area of his 2019 statistical profile was on par with or better than his career year in 2018, I'm willing to chalk the dip in touchdown rate up to poor variance. If Adams' touchdown rate bounces back to his career norm, he could be in store for a WR1 type of Fantasy season while operating as the true alpha in Green Bay's passing attack.
Fantasy Losers:
Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
Drew Lock has all the weapons he needs to succeed, but will he? I am not confident that he is going to be able to support multiple Fantasy-relevant pass-catchers, especially since the team appears likely to employ a run-first offense after adding Melvin Gordon to their already deep RB group.
Lock looked much more comfortable in his late season starts than he did during the preseason, but it's worth noting that he struggled when pushing the ball downfield and over 53 percent of his yardage came after the catch. I'll need a larger sample size before I'm convinced, and given the range of possible 'home run' landing spots for Jeudy entering the draft, this is a let-down.
Courtland Sutton's 24.8 percent target market share was the sixth-highest among wide receivers in 2019. That target share rose to 26.2 percent in the weeks Drew Lock started. Will he be able to command that type of attention from Lock with a talent like Jeudy now sharing the field?
To top things off, the Broncos invested a second-round pick to secure the talents of speedster K.J. Hamler. I don't see Hamler as a real threat to Sutton or Jeudy's playing time, but it could signify that Denver's decision makers are not as firm of believers in Sutton's ability to be the number one target as the Fantasy community seems to be.
CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys
Michael Gallup finished 10th among qualified receivers in yards per route run in 2019. In the 14 games in which they both played, Gallup finished with more targets, receiving yards, air yards, red zone targets, and Fantasy points than Cooper, so I was looking forward to targeting him at a discount in drafts in 2020. With Lamb added to equation, things become more complicated.
This landing spot is not ideal for Lamb's Fantasy value. I've moved him down from my WR1 to WR3 for dynasty purposes, and I don't see him being someone you can trust on a weekly basis in 2020 unless there is an injury to Cooper or Gallup. He has enough ability to warrant a late-round flier in redraft leagues, but the potential was there for a rookie of the year type performance if drafted into a more optimal situation.
DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles
Jackson has remained efficient when healthy in recent years, but the task of remaining healthy has grown increasingly difficult for him to manage in recent years. I had hope for a resurgence in 2020, but it appears as if the Eagles have other plans. Not only did they use a day one selection on Jalen Reagor, Philly also added receivers Marquise Goodwin, Quez Watkins and John Hightower over the past week. Hightower is a project receiver that the Eagles added in the fifth-round, but both Goodwin and Watkins profile similarly to Jackson as downfield burners. I expect Jackson to get first crack at first-team reps, but it's not encouraging to see his team add four receivers in the span of a few days.
Tyrell Williams, Las Vegas Raiders
Like Jackson, Williams is a downfield burner who seemed poised for a Fantasy-relevant role in 2020 prior to the draft. Then, his team used the 12th overall selection to make Henry Ruggs III the first receiver drafted. That wasn't it, though, as Las Vegas went on to use two third-round picks on receivers Lynn Bowden and Bryan Edwards.
Williams went from someone that could have been projected for 80-plus targets to an afterthought in a matter of days. Ruggs, Darren Waller, and Hunter Renfrow all project to have larger roles than him in 2020, and Derek Carr is not going to be able to support more than two or three Fantasy-relevant pass-catchers.
Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings
I wrote about Thielen at length a few weeks ago, as he looked to be a major value with Stefon Diggs in Buffalo. Barring Minnesota investing a Day 1 pick into a receiver, I believed Thielen had the potential to return to top-10 WR status for Fantasy purposes.
With the Vikings using the 22nd pick on wide receiver Justin Jefferson, Thielen may not see the massive target share I had anticipated. Not only that, Thielen is unlikely to return to the slot role that allowed him to be a dominant Fantasy point scorer in years past. In 2018, over 50 percent of Thielen's snaps came from the slot. That number dropped to just 28.5 percent in 2019, as the Vikings used three-wide sets less frequently. 20 percent of Diggs' routes came from the slot last year, and I expected the bulk of those snaps to go to Thielen.
Over 80 percent of Jefferson's snaps in 2019 came from the slot, so I'd expect him to get first crack at Diggs' vacated snap routes and potentially even cut into Thielen's playing time in the slot. Thielen is still a top-20 receiver for Fantasy purposes, but this certainly didn't help his value.
So which players are poised for breakouts, which sleepers do you need to jump on, and which busts should you avoid at all costs in your Fantasy football league? Join SportsLine now to get early 2020 Fantasy football rankings, plus see which WR is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.
