After five seasons together, teammates Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs were separated last week. The Vikings split up their star wide receiver duo on Monday, in exchange for four draft picks.
Injuries derailed Thielen's 2019 season, but he could bounce back to elite Fantasy wide receiver status with Diggs out of the equation. Thielen was Fantasy's WR5 in PPR formats in 2018, even with Diggs receiving a whopping 149 targets.
With Diggs traded and Laquon Treadwell now a member of the Atlanta Falcons, the Vikings seem sure to add to their receiver group via the upcoming NFL Draft. Minnesota could use one of their two first-round selections on a wideout, but their list of team needs is long. Given the shift to one of the NFL's most run-heavy approaches in 2019, it would be a bit of a surprise to see them select a wideout with one of their first picks.
It remains to be seen what Minnesota will do to address the receiver position, but barring a big-time addition via the draft or trade, Thielen has a chance to be near the league-lead in target market share in 2020.
Thielen emerged towards the end of the 2016 season, when he solidified himself as a mainstay in Minnesota's offense. Here is how the volume has been split between Thielen and Diggs since that time:
2017:
Thielen -- 144 targets (27% market share), 1,506 air yards (38% market share), 28 red zone targets
Diggs -- 94 targets (20%), 1,077 air yards (30%), 22 red zone targets
2018:
Thielen -- 153 targets (25%), 1,453 air yards (33%), 32 red zone targets
Diggs -- 149 targets (24%), 1,021 air yards (27%), 35 red zone targets
2019: (Through Week 6 -- Thielen's last full game)
Thielen -- 38 targets (25%), 457 air yards (36%), 11 red zone targets
Diggs -- 34 targets (22%), 577 air yards (45%), 6 red zone targets
From a market share perspective, nothing was off for Thielen prior to his injury. He still operated as option 1A for Kirk Cousins, while Diggs was 1B. Diggs saw more downfield targets, but Thielen was the more consistent option. From Weeks 1-6, at least, Thielen was the WR9 in Fantasy, and that was with Diggs playing all six games.
Just based off of his performance in the past three seasons, Thielen would appear to be a clear value at his current average draft position. He's going off the board as the WR13 on average, despite finishing as WR9 in 2017, WR5 in 2018, and WR9 in the weeks he was healthy in 2019.
Could he even surpass those lofty finishes while operating as Kirk Cousins' clear-cut number one target, though?
In five games played without Stefon Diggs across the past three seasons, Thielen's 16-game pace comes out to 106 catches on 163 targets for 1,078 yards and 6.4 touchdowns. Even with the unusually low yardage and touchdown outputs, that line would give Thielen 252 PPR points -- good enough for the WR5 finish last year.
It is just a five-game sample, so it should be taken with a grain of salt. But still, 51 targets in five games without Diggs is eye-opening. Keep an eye on Minnesota's offseason moves this summer -- Thielen projects to be a major value in Fantasy drafts if they don't add a high profile receiver.
