2020 NFL Draft: Fantasy football winners and losers at the RB position
Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs highlights the biggest Fantasy winners and losers at the RB position from the 2020 NFL Draft.
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After months of anticipation and speculation, the NFL Draft has come and gone. Finally, we have a somewhat clear picture of how most NFL depth charts will look for 2020. We no longer have to wonder how much trust a team really has in their starting running back and can instead make educated guesses based on their actions in the draft.
The highly touted 2020 draft class has finally landed, and we can begin to examine how our favorite prospects will fare as members of their respective new teams. Just how much will the addition of these supremely talented rookies shake up the Fantasy landscape?
Having a good understanding of each rookie's skillset and how they will fit in at the NFL level is no easy task. Fantasy experts Jacob Gibbs and Scott Engel took on that task and broke down every rookie's Fantasy fit on their new teams for SportsLine members. Read about every rookie's landing spot here.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs
I labeled Kansas City as the absolute ideal landing spot for Edwards-Helaire earlier this week, but given how Andy Reid and Brett Veach traditionally address the RB position, I had no realistic hopes of them securing Edwards-Helaire with their late second-round pick. Never would I have expected Kansas City to make Edwards-Helaire the first running back selected with their 32nd overall pick.
Apparently I underestimated just how much confidence Reid and Veach have in their ability to evaluate talent. Using that type of draft equity on a running back is an extremely risk move, as Edwards-Helaire almost has to be a Christian McCaffrey or Alvin Kamara type of contributor as a pass-catcher to validate the pick.
Clearly, Kansas City's regime believes that will be the case. Veach, Reid, and Patrick Mahomes agreed together early in the day that Edwards-Helaire was the perfect fit for their offense. Reid was quoted as saying he believes Edwards-Helaire is better than Brian Westbrook, who was a longtime Fantasy RB1 in Reid's system in Philadelphia.
When you consider the stark contrast between the regime's background when filling the RB position and the first-round pick they used on CEH, it is clear that they have big plans for the rookie back. This is literally the most investment Andy Reid has ever put into a running back since he became the Eagles' executive vice president of football operations in 2001. That context is important here.
As such, I am projecting a 60/40 usage split in favor of Edwards-Helaire over Damien Williams in 2020, which makes him the RB17 in redraft formats and the unquestioned 1.01 for dynasty purposes. And if the oft-injured Williams is forced to miss any amount of time, CEH could take over as the every-down back. If projecting a snap rate above 80 percent for Edwards-Helaire, he finishes just below McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Dalvin Cook, as the RB4 for Fantasy. That's how high the upside is for him in this offense if the playing time breaks his way.
Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have a reputation for using multiple backs, so most expected them to select a running back to replace Jordan Howard at some point in the 2020 draft. Apparently, Philadelphia had no such plans. They seem content with their RB group as-is, which includes Miles Sanders, Boston Scott, and Elijah Holyfield.
As such, Sanders is shaping up to have one of the most Fantasy-friendly roles of any back in the NFL for 2020. Over the past five seasons, the Eagles' RB group has ranked 7th, 15th, 13th, 10th, and 2nd in total Fantasy points. Sanders finished as the RB13 last year, despite ranking just 28th out of 29 qualified backs in PFF's rushing grade and 20th in elusive rating. Sanders ranked as Fantasy's RB3 from Weeks 11-16 with Jordan Howard out, despite not having a single game with a PFF rushing grade above 70 during that span.
As a rusher, Sanders was not good in 2019. Given his ability to make tacklers miss in college, there's still hope that he will improve on what we saw from him as a rusher in his rookie season. If Sanders can improve his efficiency as a rusher, he has top-five Fantasy RB potential in his second season. And if not, his contributions as a receiver are enough to keep him Fantasy-relevant.
Sanders was targeted 63 times as a rookie, and he is one of just seven rookies in NFL history to finish with 800 rushing yards and 500 receiving yards. Some other names on that list include Gale Sayers, Marshall Faulk, Edgerrin James, and Saquon Barkley. Sanders' 16-game pace as a receiver from the sample with Jordan Howard out comes out to 67 catches on 83 targets for 547 yards and 5 touchdowns. Only six running backs saw 80 targets in 2019.
Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers
It was assumed that the Chargers would use a relatively high-equity pick to find an RB to share work with Ekeler in 2020, but wouldn't you know it, they're all out of high-equity picks already after Day 1 of the NFL Draft. As part of a bizarre first-round that saw them reach for Justin Herbert at pick six and then deal their second- and third-round picks to move up to 23 and take linebacker Kenneth Murray, Los Angeles' next picks are 112th and 151st overall. It is becoming increasingly unlikely that they find a back who is a real threat to siphon work away from Ekeler.
Ekeler has played seven games without Melvin Gordon over the past two seasons. In those games, he's averaged 20.8 PPR points. Only Christian McCaffrey (29.5) and Dalvin Cook (20.9) averaged more PPR points in 2019.
Matt Breida, Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins were near the top of the list of teams expected to draft a running back, but instead they traded away a fifth-round pick for Matt Breida. The move also makes Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman honorable mentions for any draft "winners" article, but the situation in San Francisco still remains unclear at this point.
Breida will join Jordan Howard and Patrick Laird in a significantly less crowded backfield than the one he was part of in San Francisco. Of that trio, Breida has been by far the most efficient over the past few seasons. Given Miami's fifth-round investment, Breida will likely have every opportunity to supplant Laird as the third-down back. It's possible that he'll eat into Howard's early-down work, as well. At this point, Breida isn't anything more than a late-round pick with upside, but that is a lot more than could be said for him prior to the draft.
Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After an absurdly efficient junior season in which he piled up 1,244 rushing yards at a 7.9 yards per carry clip, Vaughn's play fell off a bit in 2019. Combine that with testing that was average at best, and Vaughn quickly slipped down the long list of capable running backs in the 2020 draft.
He couldn't have fallen into a better situation though, in terms of finding Fantasy relevancy. Vaughn was unlikely to be drafted anywhere that he would have an opportunity to play significant reps as a rookie, but he actually could see the field if Ronald Jones falters.
The Bucs used a second-round pick on Jones just two years ago, and he's actually younger than Vaughn, so there's no guarantee that the team is ready to move on from him. But, he wasn't drafted by the current regime, and he hasn't shown much in his two seasons in the NFL. The possibility of Jones giving Vaughn an opportunity, or the rookie simply earning the job on his own is realistic enough to keep Vaughn in mind when drafting in the mid-to-late rounds of redraft leagues. This will be a situation to monitor closely over the ensuing months.
Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars
It has been almost a forgone conclusion this offseason that Fournette wouldn't be Jacksonville's starting running back in 2020, whether as a result of them selecting one of the talented backs in the 2020 class or finding a trade partner willing to take him.
Well, the draft came and went and Jacksonville didn't select a running back. And with several of the logical landing spots for Fournette now filled by rookies, it's possible that he gets another season of operating as Jacksonville's lead back.
Fournette was a disappointment in that role in 2019, but it was not for any lack of volume. He ranked second in the NFL in routes run among running backs and was fourth in targets in 2019. Fournette was also seventh in carries and sixth in red zone carries last year. He's not going to sniff that type of usage for any other team, so Fournette is a clear winner after Jacksonville decided not to add a running back in the draft.
Damien Williams, Kansas City Chiefs
Williams is the most obviously negatively impacted player for Fantasy purposes, for all the reasons we discussed already when examining Edwards-Helaire's outlook. It is too bad after what he did in the playoffs for Kansas City last year, but Williams had his chance to prove he is capable of handling a full workload in 2019 and couldn't stay on the field. Williams still has upside on the off chance that Edwards-Helaire gets injured or struggles to capitalize on his opportunity, but he's now a fringe top-25 RB for redraft purposes.
D'Andre Swift and Kerryon Johnson, Detroit Lions
The landing spot couldn't have been much worse for Swift. He'll compete with Kerryon Johnson -- who has been nothing but excellent when on the field. Johnson, Detroit's second-round selection in 2018, has shown great promise but struggled to ever build momentum because of the frequent trips to the trainers room. He and Swift will form some sort of committee for an offense that Matt Patricia seems insistent on being run-first.
Detroit's offense was one that looked like a potential Fantasy goldmine for 2020, if what we saw from Matt Stafford on the deep ball in 2019 was any indication. Will Swift have a consistent role in that offense and be someone we can trust in Fantasy on a weekly basis? It is almost definitely going to take an injury to Kerryon Johnson for that to happen. As of now, I am projecting Swift to be on the wrong side of a 40/60 playing time split, which makes him barely relevant for redraft purposes in 2020. It will likely take an injury to one of the two backs for the other to become a trustworthy Fantasy contributor.
Marlon Mack, Indianapolis Colts
Mack has been solid for Indianapolis, but the writing is on the wall. He's in the final year of his contract, and Indy trading up in the second round to select Jonathan Taylor made Mack one of the most obvious draft day losers. Taylor is an early down back capable of wearing opposing defenses down over the course of a game or breaking loose for a long run on any given play. He displayed excellent patience and vision as a rusher at Wisconsin and is legitimately up there with Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook among the best rushers to be drafted over the past few years.
It's unclear just how much Taylor will eat into Mack's workload in 2020, but it's clear that Mack won't have the backfield to himself anymore. He went from a borderline top-12 Fantasy RB to a fringe top-24 back following Indy's trade up for Taylor.
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
Jones was already going to be the poster boy for regression after scoring 19 touchdowns in 2019, and with Green Bay's bizarre draft that included selecting a running back in the second and a fullback in the third, Jones is sure to top any 2020 Fantasy bust list.
Like Mack, Jones is in the final year of his rookie contract, and it appears as if his team is already making plans for life without him. I'm less worried about Jones losing time to rookie A.J. Dillon than Mack losing time to Taylor in 2020, but who knows what to expect with this organization and coaching staff. Matt LaFleur has a proven track record of preferring to use multiple backs, and he now has Jones, Dillon, and Jamaal Williams to choose from.
If there is a role for Dillon in year one, what makes the most sense intuitively is to use him as a short-yardage back. He scored double-digit rushing touchdowns in all three years at Boston College, and he has a 40-pound advantage over Jones. Of course, Jones never should have been expected to repeat the 19 touchdowns he scored in 2019, but it's possible he doesn't reach double digits if Dillon cuts into his goal line work.
So which players are poised for breakouts, which sleepers do you need to jump on, and which busts should you avoid at all costs in your Fantasy football league? Join SportsLine now to get early 2020 Fantasy football rankings, plus see which WR is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.