The 2019 season marked Stafford's first in six years that he'd run an offense not influenced by Jim Bob Cooter. It's unusual to see much of a stylistic change for quarterback in his age-31 season, but that is exactly what we got in Stafford's first season with Darrell Bevell as his offensive coordinator.
Gunslinger Matt is Back
Freed of Cooter's quick-hitting scheme, the aggressive downfield gunslinger we saw early in Stafford's career was back. Albeit, in just an eight-game sample, Stafford's deep ball rate (19.6 percent) was the highest of his career by a wide margin. Just 9.9 percent of his attempts traveled 20 or more yards in the air in 2018, which he more than doubled in his first year with Bevell as his OC. Stafford's career average depth of target (aDOT) is 8.3, and prior to 2019, his career-high for a single season was 8.9. Last year's aDOT was a league-high 11.4.
Per PFF's QB Annual, "Stafford increased his average depth of target by over four yards per attempt, a massive improvement in offensive aggressiveness that led to the most efficient year of his career and the league's highest percentage of big-time throws. He also saw the biggest jump in percentage of positively graded throws outside of Ryan Tannehill, which led to the league's sixth-most efficient passing attack while Stafford was on the field."
Freeing Stafford from the conservative offense he had piloted over the past half-decade injected new life into a Detroit offense that ranked just 24th in yards and 25th in scoring the year before. The Lions started the season 3-3-1 with Stafford at the helm, before losing nine-straight to end the year. Through Week 9 (the week Detroit lost Stafford for the season), Detroit's offense featured some of the top Fantasy producers at several positions.
Skewed Results
Given the season-long numbers for Detroit pass-catchers like Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, and T.J. Hockenson, their current average draft position data (ADP) should come as no surprise. However, due to Stafford's midseason injury, those results are a bit skewed.
Through Week 9, Stafford ranked as the QB6 in Fantasy. Golladay was the WR9, Jones the WR13, and Hockenson the TE14. Running back Kerryon Johnson suffered an injury of his own in Week 7, but he was the RB21 in Fantasy prior to that.
Looking ahead to 2020, average draft position data has Stafford going off the board as the QB19. Golladay and Jones are being drafted as the WR9 and WR41, respectively. Hockenson and Johnson's ADP's seem about right, as the TE15 and RB22. Every single Detroit player is being drafted at or behind where they finished at their position when Stafford was healthy in 2019, and Stafford and Jones are both being drafted well behind their 2019 standing.
More Shootouts
Detroit's current roster, while not nearly as talented, is similar to Kansas City's roster was heading into the 2018 season. The Lions' already-bad defense just lost several big names on the defensive side of the ball. Detroit's defense ranked 28th in DVOA and 26th in points per game allowed last year, and they'll be without run-stuffers Damon Harrison and A'Shawn Robinson, as well as lockdown corner Darius Slay. Linebacker Devon Kennard also isn't on the roster, which brings Detroit up to a total of 2,848 snaps needing replaced.
Like Kansas City, they'll address some of those positions in the draft, but a scenario in which Detroit's defense is drastically better than in 2019 seems unlikely. The 2019 Lions games averaged a combined 52.6 points when Stafford was under center, as every game other than Week 2 was a shootout. Detroit went from averaging 26 points per game with Stafford at QB to just 17 over their final eight games, which resulted in more conservative and run-heavy gameplans from opponents.
Detroit's offense should return to something that at least resembles what we saw in the first eight games of 2019. And with top coverage man Darius Slay traded away, Detroit's already horrendous pass defense could get picked apart on a weekly basis while opposing offenses attempt to keep up with Stafford.
Takeaways
Detroit's offense was among the NFL's best through the first eight games in 2019, before Stafford suffered a season-ending surgery. In his first season with offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, Stafford set career-bests in deep ball rate and average depth of target. The return to his gunslinging ways allowed Stafford and his pass-catchers to be among the top Fantasy producers at their positions.
The final eight weeks of the season saw Detroit's offensive production drop off in a major way without Stafford. As a result, Detroit's skill position players all appear undervalued heading into the 2020 Fantasy season. With the offense returning to full health and the defense losing several key pieces, Detroit could be involved in several shootouts in 2020. The average combined score of games Stafford quarterbacked in 2019 was 52.6 points. If that type of scoring can be replicated in 2020, the Lions are going to be a Fantasy football goldmine.
