OK this dipped under -200. Do I honestly care about 10 cents? I suppose not, but I'll match this. Was as high as -260 early this week. Azamat Murzakanov is off his first career loss, while Dominic Reyes is 4-5 in his past nine. This feels like a set-up fight for Azamat (I'm not spelling that surname again) to achieve bigger goals. He has the third-best significant strike percentage among active fighters.

Don't think playing this because Kyle Daukaus' surname reminds me of my college neighbors having the band Bauhaus on a loop 24/7. Wish I were kidding. And we all had big speakers back then. My UFC betting strategy is quite simple on the surface, anyways: Take the taller, younger guy/girl with the better reach. I boxed a little, so reach 100% matters. But I haven't been kicked since I turned off Teletubbies on the TV to anger my younger sister, so can't speak to that. The southpaw Daukaus has a few years and two-inch reach edge on Marc-Andre Barriault -- whom afterward goes and plays goalie for the Penguins. Sounds like a goalie anyways. Our experts in Kyle Marley and Daniel Vithlani agree with me.

So I try and wait on UFC fights to see what our excellent experts Kyle Marley and Daniel Vithlani do. They know way more about MMA than I. Only so much time in my day. Unfortunately, they are split on this one. I am a simple girl when it comes to the UFC: If someone has a massive reach advantage, I'm taking it. Doesn't mean everything, but it's definitely not nothing. Jai Herbert has a seven-inch reach edge on Matheus Camilo. That's akin to an Octopus in the Octagon (that just sounds cool). But if Camilo gets his hands on him, probably curtains. I'll roll the dice that doesn't happen.

Probably get ridiculed for this number, but we have very limited options, so I'll match it. Both of our MMA experts in Daniel Vithlani and Kyle Marley like Roberto Soldic. I looked that guy up, I'd just curl into a potato bug if he was angry with me, and I'm no wallflower. Big number but has come down a lot and not like I'd play +/ points in a combat sport. I'm not even sure how to do that; obviously I do know how but I never have in a fight (it's 7.5 by the way). Definition of who wins, which is just the Jurassic-type background how I was raised. Who gets the meats!

Over 4.5 rounds is -300, which is crazy. Does this likely go the distance? Yes, but I don't think there's a 75% chance, which is what that ML price implies. So I'll throw a half-unit down on this great number in the UFC 332 title fight. In 26 pro fights, Brazil's Natalia Silva has gone to the judges 11 times but has never fought past Round 3. I looked up China's Cong Wang and I was pretty startled to see her looking back at me in Joker face from a weigh-in -- her nickname is "The Joker." If I'm Silva, I enter the Octagon on Saturday as Batman. Wang has gone to the judges in six of 11 but also never past Round 3.

These two fought in Montel Jackson's UFC debut at UFC 227 and Ricky Simon won by unanimous decision. But Jackson has had the better career overall since then. The 34-year-old Simon looks rather shot with two wins in his past seven and he'll be at a nearly seven-inch reach disadvantage. The only chance Simon really would seem to have is to get this on the ground. Jackson is a monster for 135-pound bantamweight division. Tapology ranks Jackson eight spots better in the division.

Wow, only -170 for Over 0.5 rounds. In all seriousness, I'd last Over 0.5 rounds simply because I'd be running around the Octagon waiving my arms and squawking like a neutered chicken to confuse the opponent until the 2:30 mark when I then get hospitalized. I'm fairly certain Sean Sharaf won't be a chicken against rising star Gable Stevenson, who has finished all four opponents in Round 1, but Sharaf got to Round 2 in both career losses. All I'm asking.

Both of our MMA experts in Kyle Marley and Daniel Vithlani like Edmen Shahbazyan tonight. "The Golden Boy" -- I had thought pre-weird Oscar De La Hoya copyrighted that moniker but have no clue how that works -- does come off a loss but a very competitive one against No. 5 middleweight Brandon Allen. Brunno Ferreira is not near that caliber of fighter and has dropped two in a row. Shahbazyan has a pretty decent height and reach advantage. That's not everything in combat sports but also not nothing.

Big number but also a good 30 cents lower than anything else we have. My logic in UFC fights is pretty basic: Pick the younger guy with a much bigger reach if all else is relatively equal. That's definitely Mexico's Edgar Chairez on Saturday as at 30 he's nine years younger and also has a five-inch reach edge on the USA's Tim Elliott. The rising Chairez has won three straight -- and probably has the fan support in Arizona as part of Noche UFC 4 that commemorates Mexico's independence day -- and Elliott comes off a May loss. Both of SL's UFC experts are backing Chairez.

It's the five-round main event of UFC Fight Night Paris on Saturday, so you are telling me that heavy underdog Dan Hooker can't get to the 2:30 mark of Round 2? He has in five straight bouts, losing the past two. Hooker is a bit taller and has a longer reach so in theory he can keep the younger Salahdine Parnasse at bay a bit. It's the Frenchman's UFC debut. For what it's worth, my new BFF ChatGPT (that I have named Radar like in M.A.S.H.) projects a 70-74% shot this fight lasts at least halfway through Round 2.

Reach is something I look at first in the UFC even if it's not as important as boxing, and man does the USA's Sean Woodson have that advantage Saturday in China with a whopping 10-inch reach edge (and seven inches in height) over Aussie Jack Jenkins. That's like fighting Stretch Armstrong. Tapology ranks Woodson 32 spots better among all featherweights. I've never heard of a 10-inch reach edge among little dudes. At heavyweight maybe. If Jenkins were that much better a grappler, then reach and height may not matter but that's not the case.

Brazil's Vitor "Bobby" Petrino has just two losses in 16 career pro fights and those came back-to-back while at light heavyweight in 2024. But since moving to heavyweight, he's 3-0. Petrino has a 71% finish rate in his career and four of his seven in the UFC ended before the judges. He should have the power and speed edge and Moldova's Serghei Spivac, who is 1-2 in his past three, the grappling edge. Tapology ranks Petrino 13 spots better among all heavyweights. There are some legit UFC models out there, and they generally give Petrino around a 62% shot of winning (equates to -163).

Matchup of Americans on Saturday from Philly. Mansur Abdul-Malik has seen two of his past three go to Round 3, while Dustin Stoltzfus has had back-to-back end up decided via the judgers. Abdul-Malik's average fight time is 7:35 and Stoltzfus' 9:49. If this ends before midway through Round 2, then MAM likely finished his opponent. But four of Stoltzfus' eight career losses were via the judges. He's a capable grappler of getting this past the 2:30 mark of Round 2.

Big number but has come down a fair amount while still sitting -230ish at some books for Saturday from Philly. Both of our UFC experts in Daniel Vithlani and Kyle Marley -- I'm not too proud to go check others on sports where I don't remotely pretend to know it all -- like Brazil's Mackenzie Dern to defend her strawweight title. Both are good grapplers but Dern is the much more active striker and should have the clear power edge as a former Jiu-Jitsu world champion. She is ranked as the No. 6 pound-for-pound female fighter, and Canada's Gillian Robertson is not in the Top 15 on that list.

Don't love any sides this week for UFC Vegas so will go another round total for a half-unit. It's the first five-round scheduled bout in the Aussie Quillan Salkilld's UFC career. He has gone a full five once in all organizations spanning 13 fights. Outside of one three-round decision, all of his bouts in the UFC have ended in Round 1. It's the third scheduled UFC five-rounder for Mateusz (assuming that's Matt in Poland) Gamrot, and he has gone a full five twice career. I learned to box many, many years ago after getting my rear end kicked on the playground, but you can hide and drag things out in the ring. Not in the Octagon. Solid price.