Matchup of Americans on Saturday from Philly. Mansur Abdul-Malik has seen two of his past three go to Round 3, while Dustin Stoltzfus has had back-to-back end up decided via the judgers. Abdul-Malik's average fight time is 7:35 and Stoltzfus' 9:49. If this ends before midway through Round 2, then MAM likely finished his opponent. But four of Stoltzfus' eight career losses were via the judges. He's a capable grappler of getting this past the 2:30 mark of Round 2.

Big number but has come down a fair amount while still sitting -230ish at some books for Saturday from Philly. Both of our UFC experts in Daniel Vithlani and Kyle Marley -- I'm not too proud to go check others on sports where I don't remotely pretend to know it all -- like Brazil's Mackenzie Dern to defend her strawweight title. Both are good grapplers but Dern is the much more active striker and should have the clear power edge as a former Jiu-Jitsu world champion. She is ranked as the No. 6 pound-for-pound female fighter, and Canada's Gillian Robertson is not in the Top 15 on that list.

Don't love any sides this week for UFC Vegas so will go another round total for a half-unit. It's the first five-round scheduled bout in the Aussie Quillan Salkilld's UFC career. He has gone a full five once in all organizations spanning 13 fights. Outside of one three-round decision, all of his bouts in the UFC have ended in Round 1. It's the third scheduled UFC five-rounder for Mateusz (assuming that's Matt in Poland) Gamrot, and he has gone a full five twice career. I learned to box many, many years ago after getting my rear end kicked on the playground, but you can hide and drag things out in the ring. Not in the Octagon. Solid price.

The way I look at these UFC fights is that if you can't last until midway through the second round -- not that I would even make it midway through warmups -- then what are you doing here? So I'll take a half-unit shot on this cheap price at Over 1.5 rounds Saturday from Vegas. Diyar Nurgozhay has gone past the halfway point of Round 2 in two of his past four, while Bruno Lopes has gone past that mark in four of his past five. Both average better than 7:30 of fight time career.

Austria's Bogdan Grad has lost two fights in a row, but the USA's Dennis Buzukja has dropped four of five and by pretty much all metrics is ranked lower overall (Tapology, for example, ranks Grad 15 spots higher). Grad, who has solid edges in significant strike accuracy and takedown accuracy, is taking heavy early action so this might rise.

Thought I was done with UFC for this week, but we just got access to O/U round betting so will throw a little down on this. Bogdan Guskov took this main event fight on very short notice but is a pretty quality fighter at 18-3 and ranked as the No. 9 light heavyweight. He can't last against against No. 2 Magomed Ankalaev until the 2:30 mark of Round 2? If we throw out a NC for Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker (Red or Blue?) at UFC 294, then each of the past nine Ankalaev fights have gone past the halfway point of Round 2 or he lost -- which was his last bout in Round 1. And I don't see a loss here.

I will grab this now because I think it only goes up -- one of our books has Valter Walker at -250 currently, and he's taking huge early action. The Brazilian has a five-inch height and nearly five-inch reach edge on American Thomas Petersen. Walker's nickname is "The Foot Hunter" and I'm not sure I want to know what's behind that moniker, but he has just one career loss and even that was questionable via UD. Petersen is 3-3 in his past six and sorta looks like he sits around all day eating cookie dough (not that there's anything wrong with that). I'm going to pick just one fight per UFC card going forward and hammer it. Has been working lately.

Big number (has come down) so I raise the wager for the main event of Saturday's UFC Fight Night Oklahoma City. Former middleweight champion Dricus Du Plessis had an 11-fight winning streak snapped last time out but close against the excellent Khamzat Chimaev, who is ranked as the No. 1 middleweight contender. Du Plessis is No. 2 and has never lost back-to-back fights. The ex-welterweight champion Kamaru Usman fights for the first time in almost a year and is 1-3 in his past four. Usman competes at middleweight for only the second time in his career, and he lost to Chimaev in December 2023 in that one.

Please don't rag on me for this big number -- obviously, UFC is huge for our company now, so it's a bit of a new betting thing and options are limited thus far. Much more to come for sure. I think Conor McGregor is among the most overrated athletes alive. Truly. I mean, Jake Gyllenhaal took him out in the Road House remake -- should never have been remade but of course I watched it. I don't really think this is close, but it's the UFC so one punch, bite, neck-snap whatever can change it all in a second. To quote Peter Griffin: "Road House!" I'm getting this nearly $100 cheaper than my cohort Josh did. And probably keeps dropping with silly McGregor money.

Reach isn't everything, but Javier Reyes has a whopping seven-inch edge (three inches in height) on "Wrath of" Kaan Ofli for this featherweight bout. Reyes, the only Colombian fighter in the UFC and one of the bigger featherweights, is on a three-fight winning streak but this is only his second in the UFC after a first-round TKO of Douglas Silva de Andrade in February.

Flyweight bout on the prelim Fight Night card from Vegas on Saturday. It was originally scheduled for UFC Winnipeg in April. Brazil's Allan Nascimento is three inches taller and will have nearly a five-inch reach edge against the USA's Mitch Raposo, who fell ill ahead of the first fight and why postponed. Per our expert Kyle Marley, Nascimento "is much more skilled and dangerous on the mat." He also has won four straight bouts and has fought a much higher level of competition overall than Raposo has.

Mike McClure's model for this bout tonight at the White House gives Justin Gaethje a 32% chance of knocking off unbeaten Ilia Topuria in the main event for the lightweight title. Per Mike's sims, we are getting decent value here because 32% -- I would give Gaethje about a one in three chance too -- equates to +213 on the money line so let's throw a half-unit shot down. Apparently this card will go even if it's raining. Very interested to tune into Paramount+ at 8 ET to see the setup. Then it's probably back to Season 2 of Your Friends & Neighbors for me until the main event.

Don't watch a lot of UFC -- more in 2026 than before thanks to it being on Paramount+ now -- but will check in on this Sunday to see the setup at the White House. Trying to think where the next cool place to host a card should be. Grand Canyon? Eiffel Tower? Sydney Opera House (my favorite man-made structure)? We recently saw a boxing match from the Pyramids in Giza. Dana White has said Alex Pereira is the UFC GOAT with a win to become a three-division champion as there has never been one. But the natural heavyweight Ciryl Gane might be a good 30 pounds bigger and has a two-inch reach edge. Current heavyweight champ Tom Aspinall leans Gane.

The southpaw Chelsea Chandler is two years younger and has a three-inch reach edge on Priscila Cachoeira for Saturday's bout from Vegas. The underdog is the bigger hitter but also gets hit a lot: Cachoeira absorbs a whopping 7.60 significant strikes per minute for a significant strikes differential of -3.17. Chandler has a differential there of –0.89 but is the far superior grappler.