Wow, only -170 for Over 0.5 rounds. In all seriousness, I'd last Over 0.5 rounds simply because I'd be running around the Octagon waiving my arms and squawking like a neutered chicken to confuse the opponent until the 2:30 mark when I then get hospitalized. I'm fairly certain Sean Sharaf won't be a chicken against rising star Gable Stevenson, who has finished all four opponents in Round 1, but Sharaf got to Round 2 in both career losses. All I'm asking.

Both of our MMA experts in Kyle Marley and Daniel Vithlani like Edmen Shahbazyan tonight. "The Golden Boy" -- I had thought pre-weird Oscar De La Hoya copyrighted that moniker but have no clue how that works -- does come off a loss but a very competitive one against No. 5 middleweight Brandon Allen. Brunno Ferreira is not near that caliber of fighter and has dropped two in a row. Shahbazyan has a pretty decent height and reach advantage. That's not everything in combat sports but also not nothing.

Big number but also a good 30 cents lower than anything else we have. My logic in UFC fights is pretty basic: Pick the younger guy with a much bigger reach if all else is relatively equal. That's definitely Mexico's Edgar Chairez on Saturday as at 30 he's nine years younger and also has a five-inch reach edge on the USA's Tim Elliott. The rising Chairez has won three straight -- and probably has the fan support in Arizona as part of Noche UFC 4 that commemorates Mexico's independence day -- and Elliott comes off a May loss. Both of SL's UFC experts are backing Chairez.

It's the five-round main event of UFC Fight Night Paris on Saturday, so you are telling me that heavy underdog Dan Hooker can't get to the 2:30 mark of Round 2? He has in five straight bouts, losing the past two. Hooker is a bit taller and has a longer reach so in theory he can keep the younger Salahdine Parnasse at bay a bit. It's the Frenchman's UFC debut. For what it's worth, my new BFF ChatGPT (that I have named Radar like in M.A.S.H.) projects a 70-74% shot this fight lasts at least halfway through Round 2.

Reach is something I look at first in the UFC even if it's not as important as boxing, and man does the USA's Sean Woodson have that advantage Saturday in China with a whopping 10-inch reach edge (and seven inches in height) over Aussie Jack Jenkins. That's like fighting Stretch Armstrong. Tapology ranks Woodson 32 spots better among all featherweights. I've never heard of a 10-inch reach edge among little dudes. At heavyweight maybe. If Jenkins were that much better a grappler, then reach and height may not matter but that's not the case.

Brazil's Vitor "Bobby" Petrino has just two losses in 16 career pro fights and those came back-to-back while at light heavyweight in 2024. But since moving to heavyweight, he's 3-0. Petrino has a 71% finish rate in his career and four of his seven in the UFC ended before the judges. He should have the power and speed edge and Moldova's Serghei Spivac, who is 1-2 in his past three, the grappling edge. Tapology ranks Petrino 13 spots better among all heavyweights. There are some legit UFC models out there, and they generally give Petrino around a 62% shot of winning (equates to -163).

Matchup of Americans on Saturday from Philly. Mansur Abdul-Malik has seen two of his past three go to Round 3, while Dustin Stoltzfus has had back-to-back end up decided via the judgers. Abdul-Malik's average fight time is 7:35 and Stoltzfus' 9:49. If this ends before midway through Round 2, then MAM likely finished his opponent. But four of Stoltzfus' eight career losses were via the judges. He's a capable grappler of getting this past the 2:30 mark of Round 2.

Big number but has come down a fair amount while still sitting -230ish at some books for Saturday from Philly. Both of our UFC experts in Daniel Vithlani and Kyle Marley -- I'm not too proud to go check others on sports where I don't remotely pretend to know it all -- like Brazil's Mackenzie Dern to defend her strawweight title. Both are good grapplers but Dern is the much more active striker and should have the clear power edge as a former Jiu-Jitsu world champion. She is ranked as the No. 6 pound-for-pound female fighter, and Canada's Gillian Robertson is not in the Top 15 on that list.

Don't love any sides this week for UFC Vegas so will go another round total for a half-unit. It's the first five-round scheduled bout in the Aussie Quillan Salkilld's UFC career. He has gone a full five once in all organizations spanning 13 fights. Outside of one three-round decision, all of his bouts in the UFC have ended in Round 1. It's the third scheduled UFC five-rounder for Mateusz (assuming that's Matt in Poland) Gamrot, and he has gone a full five twice career. I learned to box many, many years ago after getting my rear end kicked on the playground, but you can hide and drag things out in the ring. Not in the Octagon. Solid price.

The way I look at these UFC fights is that if you can't last until midway through the second round -- not that I would even make it midway through warmups -- then what are you doing here? So I'll take a half-unit shot on this cheap price at Over 1.5 rounds Saturday from Vegas. Diyar Nurgozhay has gone past the halfway point of Round 2 in two of his past four, while Bruno Lopes has gone past that mark in four of his past five. Both average better than 7:30 of fight time career.

Austria's Bogdan Grad has lost two fights in a row, but the USA's Dennis Buzukja has dropped four of five and by pretty much all metrics is ranked lower overall (Tapology, for example, ranks Grad 15 spots higher). Grad, who has solid edges in significant strike accuracy and takedown accuracy, is taking heavy early action so this might rise.

Thought I was done with UFC for this week, but we just got access to O/U round betting so will throw a little down on this. Bogdan Guskov took this main event fight on very short notice but is a pretty quality fighter at 18-3 and ranked as the No. 9 light heavyweight. He can't last against against No. 2 Magomed Ankalaev until the 2:30 mark of Round 2? If we throw out a NC for Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker (Red or Blue?) at UFC 294, then each of the past nine Ankalaev fights have gone past the halfway point of Round 2 or he lost -- which was his last bout in Round 1. And I don't see a loss here.

I will grab this now because I think it only goes up -- one of our books has Valter Walker at -250 currently, and he's taking huge early action. The Brazilian has a five-inch height and nearly five-inch reach edge on American Thomas Petersen. Walker's nickname is "The Foot Hunter" and I'm not sure I want to know what's behind that moniker, but he has just one career loss and even that was questionable via UD. Petersen is 3-3 in his past six and sorta looks like he sits around all day eating cookie dough (not that there's anything wrong with that). I'm going to pick just one fight per UFC card going forward and hammer it. Has been working lately.

Big number (has come down) so I raise the wager for the main event of Saturday's UFC Fight Night Oklahoma City. Former middleweight champion Dricus Du Plessis had an 11-fight winning streak snapped last time out but close against the excellent Khamzat Chimaev, who is ranked as the No. 1 middleweight contender. Du Plessis is No. 2 and has never lost back-to-back fights. The ex-welterweight champion Kamaru Usman fights for the first time in almost a year and is 1-3 in his past four. Usman competes at middleweight for only the second time in his career, and he lost to Chimaev in December 2023 in that one.

Please don't rag on me for this big number -- obviously, UFC is huge for our company now, so it's a bit of a new betting thing and options are limited thus far. Much more to come for sure. I think Conor McGregor is among the most overrated athletes alive. Truly. I mean, Jake Gyllenhaal took him out in the Road House remake -- should never have been remade but of course I watched it. I don't really think this is close, but it's the UFC so one punch, bite, neck-snap whatever can change it all in a second. To quote Peter Griffin: "Road House!" I'm getting this nearly $100 cheaper than my cohort Josh did. And probably keeps dropping with silly McGregor money.