Bruce's Past Picks
Just when it looked like the Blue Jays were about to put the Dodgers on the ropes in 9th inning last night came a bang-bang double play to end the game and force a Game Seven tonight. But LA is still not doing much at the plate, only four hits last night, while the Jays have scored nine more runs in the World Series; their three wins are by a combined 23-7. Max Scherzer wants the ball and can give John Schneider four or five innings, which is all Dave Roberts likely gets for whomever starts for him (Shohei Ohtani?). In the end, the Dodger bullpen is going to have to feature, and that's been LA's Achilles heel. Play Blue Jays on Money Line
The only real problems the Jays have had at the plate in this series came against Dodgers Game 6 starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who pitched a complete nine innings in the Game 2 win, as he did Game 2 of the NLCS vs. the Brewers. But after dealing successfully with Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and Shohei Ohtani on the mound in this series, Toronto won't blink. Worryingly for the Dodgers, their offense has been mostly reduced to solo homers in this series and has yet to really erupt since the wild card series vs. the Reds. Toronto's Kevin Gausman (2.55 ERA in five playoff games) has more than held his own on the mound this postseason.
The Blue Jays are not blinking in this World Series as the normal Dodger intimidation games don't seem to be working. Toronto could easily have won these last two games at Chavez Ravine as the Jays have blocked out he Dodger Stadium factor, and LA can't be quite as comfy with Blake Snell on the mound after he was roughed up in Game One. Meanwhile, John Schneider is confident he can get five or so innings from Trey Yesevage, though the Blue Jays bullpen is again going to be asked to do some heavy lifting. Three of the four games already in this series have reached at least eight runs. Play Blue Jays-Dodgers Over
Well the under worked for the second game on Monday night...except it was part of the first game that happened to go 18 innings. The respective offenses looked like they would play all night before scoring in extra innings, but still, it only takes a big inning or two from either sides to get the score above 8. Toronto has lacked consistency at the plate but does have nine and four-run innings across the first three games, while the Dodgers are scoring 5 runs per game in the Series. After both pitching staffs were depleted on Monday night, we're not sure about either bullpen tonight, and Toronto's Shane Bieber did labor in Game 7 of the ALCS vs. Seattle.
Though the stray big inning is always possible, the footprint of this series seems to be lower-scoring. Toronto of course got the bats cooking in the sixth inning of Game One, but the Blue Jays have scored in just three of 18 innings thus far. Meanwhile, the Dodger offense has been on shorter rations since the Division Round vs. the Phils, and had John Schneider not waited too long to pull Kevin Gausman in Game 2, we're not sure the Dodgers make their breakthrough on Saturday, either. For Monday, vet Max Scherzer is a viable option for Toronto after his Game 4 effort vs. Seattle., while LA's Tyler Glasnow has been tough to hit lately, as his 0.68 postseason ERA suggests. Play Jays-Dodgers Under
Shades of Reds-A;s in 1990? The Blue Jays might have delivered a psychological blow to the Dodgers in Game One, roughing up previously untouchable Blake Snell and continuing the 6th inning onslaught vs. the Dodger bullpen. Nine runs later, Game One was in the freezer for Toronto, whose ability to make contact and put balls in play looks different from the swing-and-miss foes the Dodger staff mostly dominated in the NL playoffs. After taking care of Snell, the Jays will like their chances vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has allowed homers in each of his last two playoff starts. Note the Dodger offense has been sluggish most of the playoffs, and Toronto's Kevin Gausman has a 2.,00 October playoff ERA. Play Blue Jays on Money Line
Not ready to forecast a sweep for Toronto, but don't expect the Jays to roll over. Rookie Trey Yesevage has had two solid postseason efforts on the mound out of three tries and has 22 Ks while allowing just 11 walks in 15 IP during the playoffs. Toronto's task is to solve Blake Snell, to this point perhaps the playoff MVP with an 0.86 ERA. With the Dodger offense a bit stop-start lately, getting to 8 runs looks a chore.
Batten the hatches as it's Game Seven and both managers will go to their bullpens at the first sign of trouble for their pitchers. The trendlines in the ALCS have very much been to the over, landing that way in five straight games, with 59 runs scored across that span. Shane Bieber has only gone six innings a handful of times since being activated in August, and while serviceable on the hill for the Jays hasn't been dominant; his ERA is a so-so 4.06 since the start of September. Meanwhile, Seattle's George Kirby was blasted in Game 3, allowing eight runs (three homers) in just 4 IP. Big bats and runs have been the story of the ALCS! Play Mariners-Jays Over
One gets the feeling the Mariners have let their chance to close out this series slip past. A closer look at the last four games suggests Toronto could have won all of those and closed out the series last night, outscoring Seattle 27-8 in the three wins, and leading into the bottom of the 8th in Game 5 before Brendon Little and Seranthony Dominguez imploded. Shane Bieber also looks a better option the mound for the decider, having gone a solid 6 innings in Game 3, while the Mariners' George Kirby was routed, allowing 8 runs in 4 just IP. Vladdy Jr and his hot bat (six playoff homers) also spell trouble for Seattle pitchers on Monday. Play Jays on ML
There are no tomorrows for the Blue Jays if they lose tonight, so John Schneider is very prepared to make this a bullpen game at the first sign of struggle from young Trey Yesevage, who wobbled on the mound in Game 2 The Blue Jays will be ready to jump on Logan Gilbert, too, as they did in that same Game 2 when tagging Gilbert for three runs (two earned) and five hits in just 3 IP, though they weren't able to do much with the Seattle bullpen last Monday after KOing Gilbert. Whatever, the ALCS has turned into an offensive show, with three straight games landing on the over side as 38 runs have been scored across that span. Play Mariners-Blue Jays Over
Unfortunately for the Brewers, they have the look of a defeated team. The offense has grinded to a halt in the NLCS, Milwaukee batters flummoxed by crafty Dodgers pitching that is changing speeds and finding the corners. The Brewers aren't seeing as many belt-high fastballs that they love, and aren't drawing walks, either. While Pat Murphy decides if he wants to make Friday another bullpen game, it won't matter if Milwaukee can't score some runs, and Shohei Ohtani looks very capable of 5 or 6 innings of the same effort on the mound for LA. The Dodger offense, however, has not exactly been percolating at bat in this series, so clearing 8 runs might be a big ask in Game 4. Play Brewers-Dodgers Under
As the ALCS approximates the 2019 World Series in the "no home field advantage" category, there's another development in the games at T-Mobile Park. With the Blue Jays powering for 21 runs across the past two nights, Games 3 & 4 cleared the posted totals with ease, which is why this 7 runs for Friday's Game 5 looks very reachable. As a team, the Jays are hitting .343 the past two nights after hovering around .140 in Games 1 & 2, and Bryce Miller's solid 6 IP for Seattle in Game 1 looks an outlier, considering he posted a 5.61 ERA in five September starts, and lasted only 4 1/3 innings in Game 4 of the ALDS vs. the Tigers. Play Blue Jays-Mariners Over.
What home-field edge? There hasn't been any in this ALCS, with the road team romping in all four games to date. For the Blue Jays, that means a complete turnaround of this series as they prepare to go back home up 3-2 (do they really want to go home?) if they win again tonight. Scoring 21 runs in the past two games, Toronto's bats have come alive in Seattle, and Kevin Gausman's efforts on the mound the past month-plus have encouraged, with a 2.45 ERA since the start of September. Meanwhile, Dan Wilson's bullpen strategy backfired for the Ms in Game 4, and now Bryce Miller deals with a Toronto offense that's on fire at T-Mobile Park. Play Blue Jays on ML.
There's a lot being made about recent efforts of Seattle starter Luis Castillo, who has been almost airtight since early September. Yet some of those efforts were vs. flawed (including the Rockies and Angels) or fading opposition, and Dan Wilson left Castillo in the game for just 4 2/3 innings in Game 2 vs. the Tigers. The Blue Jays bats got hot last night as the entire offense seemed to relax a bit being away from home, but Toronto might needed another homer barrage tonight to help out starter Max Scherzer, who was hardly on fire in September with a 10.20 ERA. The Jays bullpen needs to be ready tonight. Play Blue Jays-Mariners Over
Might this be where the Dodgers are vulnerable? It was Game 3 of the NLDS vs. the Phils when the Dodgers suffered their only postseason stumble. Now, Tyler Glasnow came back the next day to pitch six shutout innings in what would be the close-out game vs. the Phils, but expect Milwaukee's batters to be a bit more relaxed on the road (as were Toronto's batters last night in Seattle) after seeming to press a bit too hard in the first two games at home. The opener route has worked before this season for Pat Murphy and making this a bullpen game isn't necessarily a negative for the Brewers, who did sweep a 3-game series at the Ravine in July. Play Brewers on Money Line
