Iowa State is in a better position to get to the Big 12 title game next week than the others tied with it at the top of the loop table. Conditions will be cold in Ames but no worse than this game at the end of November a year ago played in a blizzard at Manhattan when Cyclone RB Abu Sama ran like an all-terrain vehicle when gaining as astounding 276 yards on just 16 carries, with three long scores, as ISU won 28-21. The Cyclones have momentum after pulling out last week's win at Utah, while K-State has fallen short three times when seriously challenged this season, when the skittery tendencies of QB Avery Johnson (tossed 3 picks in each loss) resonated. Play ISU

Kansas State has played a slightly tougher schedule (No. 23 vs. No. 32) and has better net yards per play (+0.9 vs. +0.6). The Wildcats have the better sack differential (+1.6 vs. -0.3) and have outgained 10 of 11 foes this season. Kansas State is ranked 15th in rushing yards per game (202.7), while Iowa State is ranked 100th in rushing yards allowed (176.6). Last year, the Cyclones defeated Kansas State 42-35 as 9.5-point road dogs, despite a 32-10 First down margin and 42:12 to 17:48 time of possession deficit. The underdog is 8-2 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last ten meetings. This will be the season's first game in which the Wildcats are underdogs as they look to play spoiler. Take the points!

Kansas State and Iowa State boast two of the top-four scoring defenses in the Big 12, allowing less than 41 points per game combined. The Cyclones are elite against the pass but shoddy against the run, so look for the Wildcats to play keep away from a surprisingly good Iowa State offense. I think the Cyclones rally for the win and a berth in the conference championship game on a late Rocco Becht touchdown pass. Iowa State 24, Kansas State 20.