Matt's Picks (4 Live)
Last year, the Yankees had 94 wins and 23 of those were of the one-run variety, which is about a quarter. That's why I just refuse to play -1.5. Mental block. Why throw a one-run victory out the window automatically? Another good spot for -1 if want a cheaper option and don't mind a possible push. Just don't see the Yanks losing their home opener. The Marlins have a nice record, but they have been beating up on the Rockies and White Sox in South Florida. The Toros from "The Bad News Bears in Breaking Training" could beat the Rockies and White Sox.
The Cardinals have I think overachieved thus far as they are expected to be awful, although shortstop JJ Wetherholt looks like the real deal and is a top NL ROY candidate. It's their first road game, and I expect them to finish at least 10 games under away this season. Love me some teams in home openers, and I sure prefer new Tigers lefty Framber Valdez over the Cards' Michael McGreevy even if McGreevy was terrific in his 2026 debut. If looking to save some $$, this would also be a solid -1 spot (-125) or Tigers not bat bottom 9 (also -125). I often look that way on money lines north of -150.
We don't get alt spreads often in our system (I use them frequently in my daily newsletter parlay), so I'm going to jump on this as it just popped in. (May as well play +3.5 at -150.) The Dodgers could score 10 off Miles Mikolas, but L.A. starter Emmet Sheehan is nothing special and shelled in his 2026 debut. The Dodgers are going to get every team's best shot on the road -- it's their first away game. Surely the Nats can hang within two in their home opener.
How much is Victor Wembanyama worth? Apparently almost 7 points as the Spurs were as high as -4.5, but he will sit in LA. Now, I have learned not just fade teams because their star is out. It's almost as if the opponent is flat not playing him. But the Clips are playing for seeding, healthy and on normal rest. The Spurs have a mega-showdown Saturday in Denver: Wemby vs. Nikola as a lead-in to the Final Four. So I tend to think this might be not a punt game but ... mail it in at the half if down double-digits type one.
Utah has some wiggle room in terms of a West wild-card spot, but slumping Seattle has to have two points. The Kraken haven't been quite the home cash cow of late but are still an excellent 23-13 ATS there. Utah is 18-20 ATS away. The Mammoth remain without top-six forward Barrett Hayton (25 points). They lead the season series 2-0, but Karel Vejmelka gave up three in each and those were in Salt Lake City. Also before Seattle made the excellent trade for Toronto's Bobby McMann.
The Braves enter the series without an off-day so they could use a bit of bullpen relief from Reynaldo Lopez. He went six very strong in his season debut to beat Kansas City after a solid spring. Managers will generally go out of their way to allow their starting pitchers -- if not openers -- to get a W as long as not getting shelled. Not many Dbacks have faced Lopez career. Our model his him at 5.8 innings -- all of our other books have 15.5 outs recorded.
The Jackets probably played above their paygrade much of the season and are fading on a four-game skid outscored 9-1. Elvis is in the building tonight in Raleigh but Merzlikins is their lesser goalie with a 3.34 GAA. A handful of rotation guys are out. Carolina is playing for the East's top seed and healthy. And it just romped 5-2 in Columbus on Tuesday.
I went ahead and added a copy/paste shortcut to my Microsoft Word for "Fade the Twins on the road" as it will get plenty of use on my reliable Commodore 64. I won't win them all -- and won't just blindly do it -- but certainly expect many. Didn't see anything from Wednesday's easy win to think the Royals lose behind Cole Ragans on Thursday. He disappointed in 2025 but his one start vs. the Twins was a dominant win. Minnesota now has dropped three in a row by multiple runs but there's a light at the end of the tunnel as the club finally gets home for the first time after this one. Easy to be looking forward to that.
The Bucks are sitting just about everyone tonight in the second of a B2B, which should mean a lot of minutes for Jericho Sims as he's the only true center available if not a very good one. The 27-year-old has had a few nice games of late when he has gotten minutes, including 17 PR last night in 29 minutes.
On paper, a horrific spot for the Knicks on a three-game skid, in the second of a back-to-back and at the end of a trip. Jalen Brunson, Miles McBride and Mitchell Robinson get the night off. New York is 2-4 without Brunson this season. The Grizzlies obviously aren't winning but if they try even a little should be able to cover two touchdowns at home.
Bit of a mixed bag in the early going -- stupid Reds bullpen, yay Cubs -- so I will add a night play. As I've said a few times, I'll be fading the Twins an absolute ton on the road this season and the only time a bit concerned is when ace Joe Ryan is on the hill, which is tonight. So I do like the Under as well, but that Twins lineup is so bad I still don't believe Minny should be favored in Kansas City. Royals counterpart Noah Cameron was terrific as a rookie in 2025 at 9-7 with a 2.99 ERA. Against the Twins, he was 1-0 with a 0.73 ERA in 12.1 innings. It might rain.