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Matt Severance

Severance Pays

Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over the past four NBA seasons, Matt has returned a whopping $6,634 to $100 bettors. That includes finishing 217-130-1 (plus $2,182) in the 2024-25 NBA season. Over the past four MLB seasons, Matt is up $1,681. And over the past five college basketball seasons, Matt is up $1,008. He also has excelled in two straight NFL seasons, returning $2,010 to $100 players, and is coming off an outstanding NHL season in which he went 235-155-21 (plus $2,022). Matt believes in buying points in football to get off a push number like 3 or 7. He understands that oddsmakers don't do as much homework on lower-tier FBS games, creating betting opportunities. And he says homefield advantage is underrated in some markets and overrated in others. For Matt Severance media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.

@jordanpaytonsn1
LAST 20 NFL ML PICKS
+288.5
RECORD: 13-7-0
+288.5
13-7 IN LAST 20 NFL ML PICKS

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Matt's Picks (6 Live)

Dec 21 2025, 9:05 pm UTC
League
Jacksonville
@ Denver
Money LineSubscribers Only
Unit1.0
+288.5
13-7 in Last 20 NFL ML Picks
+381
6-1 in Last 7 DEN ML Picks
Analysis:

Should Denver be a bigger favorite? ....

Pick Made: 4:57 pm UTC on FanDuel
Dec 21 2025, 11:00 pm UTC
League
Colorado
@ Minnesota
SpreadSubscribers Only
Unit1.0
+647
26-14-5 in Last 45 NHL ATS Picks
+102
5-3 in Last 8 COL ATS Picks
Analysis:

Minnesota's young star is 10-1-2 with a 1.96 GAA and a .936 save percentage.

Pick Made: 7:51 am UTC on FanDuel
Dec 22 2025, 12:00 am UTC
League
Buffalo
@ New Jersey
Money LineSubscribers Only
Unit1.0
+493.5
35-23-5 in Last 63 NHL Picks
+387
5-1 in Last 6 NHL ML Picks
Analysis:

Jack Hughes is back for the Devils. ...

Pick Made: 5:08 pm UTC on bet365
Dec 22 2025, 1:20 am UTC
League
New England
@ Baltimore
SpreadSubscribers Only
Unit1.0
+148
5-4 in Last 9 NFL Picks
Analysis:

New England's leading tackler is out. ...

Pick Made: 10:13 pm UTC on DraftKings
Dec 31 2025, 8:00 pm UTC
League
Michigan
@ Texas
SpreadSubscribers Only
Unit1.0
+1171.5
63-40-1 in Last 104 NCAAF Picks
+1034
32-19-1 in Last 52 NCAAF ATS Picks
+450
5-0 in Last 5 TEXAS ATS Picks
Analysis:

Will Bryce Underwood play for Michigan? ...

Pick Made: Dec 11, 6:18 pm UTC on DraftKings
Jan 01 2026, 9:00 pm UTC
League
Alabama
@ Indiana
SpreadSubscribers Only
Unit1.0
+1171.5
63-40-1 in Last 104 NCAAF Picks
+1034
32-19-1 in Last 52 NCAAF ATS Picks
+244
3-1 in Last 4 BAMA ATS Picks
Analysis:

Is Alabama undervalued? ...

Pick Made: 6:48 am UTC on FanDuel
Matt's Past Picks
Dec 21 2025, 7:45 pm UTC
League
Atalanta
1
@ Genoa
0
SpreadGenoa +0.25 +100
LOSS
Unit1.0
+146
3-2 in Last 5 SERI Picks
Analysis:

The Fighting Salamis aren't particularly good but neither is Atalanta. The visitors --almost typed Falcons but Atalanta's nickname of La Dea (The Goddess) is way, way better -- have some major availability concerns, not that I've heard of 98.3% of those guys. 98.3 ... now I want to listen to 80s alternative on the radio; kids, that's a device where music spews from but that you don't own or control what is being played. That's sorta the allure as you can be surprised once in a while. And the late Casey Kasem. That was appointment radio.

Pick Made: 4:25 pm UTC on bet365
Dec 21 2025, 6:00 pm UTC
League
Kansas City
9
@ Tennessee
26
+148
5-4 in Last 9 NFL Picks
+168.5
8-6 in Last 14 TEN ATS Picks
Analysis:

Raise your hand if you have been a Bears fan since can remember and missed the greatest comeback win in franchise history live. I'm just still in utter disbelief about all of it. Am I dead in a cornfield in Iowa? Will say that now I do understand why many senior citizens record stuff and delay watching sports for like an hour or two to skip through commercials on FF. The game went by much faster. This feels like one of the biggest letdown/trap games in NFL history honestly. Why would the Chiefs care one iota? Just deflation, holmes, after being eliminated last week and the Patrick Mahomes injury. Think Jackson Mahomes is at QB today; that buffoon might be better than Gardner Minshew.

Pick Made: 4:08 pm UTC on DraftKings
Dec 21 2025, 6:00 pm UTC
League
Tampa Bay
20
@ Carolina
23
+104
24-16 in Last 40 NFL Player Props Picks
Analysis:

Carolina's Rico Dowdle has seven total touchdowns this season, one shy of earning a $250K bonus for an eighth. You don't think his coaches and teammates know that and want to get it ASAP? Dowdle isn't making a bundle this year on a one-year deal. I will share in the Discord room at some point an excellent CBS Sports research document showing all relevant contract incentives that could be hit in Week 16. The Bucs have allowed 16 rushing TDs, among the most in the NFL.

Pick Made: Dec 17, 5:46 pm UTC on Caesars
Dec 21 2025, 12:30 am UTC
League
Illinois St.
30
@ Villanova
14
+1171.5
63-40-1 in Last 104 NCAAF Picks
+1034
32-19-1 in Last 52 NCAAF ATS Picks
Analysis:

Bit of a funny/sad story as mentioned in the newsletter. Biggest Bears regular-season game in a decade tonight. And yet I will be at a staging of "A Christmas Story" on ice or roller skates or mud or some craziness because someone clearly doesn't know me ... or sports. So I'm gonna play games in that entire show window as an excuse to go to the lobby and sit at the bar (there better be one). Sorry "gotta work". Have I mentioned I love this job? Gets me out of so much. Like the Curb episode where Larry uses his mother's death to get out of everything. I see Emory Hunt is on the Cats; will punch up to 3. True home game.

Pick Made: Dec 20, 7:58 pm UTC on FanDuel
Dec 21 2025, 12:00 am UTC
League
Boston
112
@ Toronto
96
+298.5
21-17 in Last 38 NBA ML Picks
+1044
33-16 in Last 49 BOS ML Picks
Analysis:

I recommend waiting to make sure Jaylen Brown is out, but he's doubtful. In a normal universe, that should mean out but it's the NBA so I trust nothing. Sometimes Joel Embiid goes from "corpse" to "probable" in like two hours. Don't get me started. Boston is in the second of a B2B and that's why not likely. Yeah, I guess it's hard making $40 million and playing basketball twice in 24 hours. Here is the world's tiniest violin. But I'm all about positivity today after that (quite ugly) Canes win. I don't think the Celtics win in Toronto without Brown. It's also one of those one-game trips that players despise.

Pick Made: Dec 20, 9:02 pm UTC on bet365
Dec 20 2025, 5:30 pm UTC
League
Philadelphia
4
@ N.Y. Rangers
5
+493.5
35-23-5 in Last 63 NHL Picks
+387
5-1 in Last 6 NHL ML Picks
+444.5
52-34 in Last 86 NYR ML Picks
Analysis:

I had not planned to play this, but the Flyers have ruled out No. 1 goalie Dan "Darth" Vladar. The former Calgary No. 2 has been excellent this year and stole the starting job from today's starter in Samuel Ersson (3.05 GAA). Which sounds a lot like Ershon and makes me think of the criminally underrated "The Other Guys." Truly love that movie. I also now want a glacier water with cucumber because it accents the water in such a way ... lol. In addition, Philly is without center Christian Dvorak (23 points, plus-8). Yeah, this got interesting real fast, although the Rangers for some reason are really struggling at home. Otherwise this should be probably -180.

Pick Made: Dec 20, 4:57 pm UTC on BetRivers
Dec 20 2025, 5:00 pm UTC
League
Miami (Fla.)
10
@ Texas A&M
3
+1171.5
63-40-1 in Last 104 NCAAF Picks
+1034
32-19-1 in Last 52 NCAAF ATS Picks
Analysis:

I generally make plays with my brain and not heart .. but will make an exception for this one. I honestly believe Miami is one of the top-five most talented teams in the country if Mario Cristobal would just get out of his own way sometimes. At a neutral site, I'd crush this. But it's not. Obviously weather forecasts are tricky this far out. It looks rather nice in College Station down the road. Cold and I'm not doing this. Because the Canes are like the Dolphins. Fish out of water so to speak.

Pick Made: Dec 13, 6:04 pm UTC on Caesars
Dec 20 2025, 3:00 pm UTC
League
West Ham United
0
@ Manchester City
3
SpreadWest Ham United +2.5 -182
LOSS
Unit1.0
+281
9-5-1 in Last 15 EPL ATS Picks
Analysis:

Obviously juiced but an outlier number at our books. West Ham has not lost a match in any competition by at least three goals since Sept. 13 and has drawn its past three away. Quick turnaround for the Citizens as they beat Brentford 2-0 on Wednesday in the Carabao Cup. In all competitions, Man City would have covered this twice in the past eight. Pep Guardiola's squad has some availability concerns, too. See in America I'd just say on the IR or whatnot. But in Love Actually-land (it's Christmas and that's a Top-5 all-time flick) guys might be hurt, suspended or with national teams. Many EPL clubs, including City, are missing a guy or two due to them playing in the Africa Cup of Nations.

Pick Made: Dec 19, 1:25 pm UTC on BetMGM
Dec 20 2025, 12:30 pm UTC
League
Chelsea
2
@ Newcastle United
2
SpreadNewcastle United +0.25 -143
WIN
Unit1.0
+281
9-5-1 in Last 15 EPL ATS Picks
Analysis:

I seriously don't know what world this is. Earth-616 per Marvel but I'm a Superman/Batman guy so I'll just say Metropolis/Gotham. I can't get much right currently other than soccer. If you had repeated that line to me 18 months ago ... I'd have said they would have remade Breakfast Club before I believed that (don't you dare!). You know, I like math (says the writer). I tend to do well on lower-scoring sports for that reason because my dome thinks a bit differently. "It is only in the mysterious equations of love that any logical reasons can be found." I'm not sure if that's relevant here, but my pattern seems to be working in this sport at least. Have learned to profit off draws.

Pick Made: Dec 20, 4:09 am UTC on BetRivers
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