Matt's Picks (5 Live)
Matt's Past Picks
Do I think North Texas wins? Probably. But maybe 58%. So I think now that we have 3, kinda have to at home for Tulane (true home game) and be fine with a push. Checking if a coach left or the transfer portal. No sport needs a commissioner to stop all this nonsense more than college football, but I doubt it happens in my lifetime as that would mean the SEC gave up a little power. Both coaches are on their way out, which is pretty ridiculous. Don't begrudge anyone moving to a more lucrative spot, but the NCAA has to stop this. Are contracts basically gummy bears?
I may have Tourette syndrome but I simply like saying Quinnipiac. It's sorta my Larry David/Richard Lewis mantra ("Jaya"). It's 5:47 am and I'm pretty sure my wife made spaghetti with five-week old Costco meat so I might be delirious (hi giraffe), but this seems a good 2-3 points low/use your ML skills to figure that out. Obviously I don't care about the spread but still. Iona is 111-31 (.782) in MAAC contests at the Hynes Center in its last 142 games. And that's really all this is. Iona ranks No. 18 in DI 3-point percentage defense and No. 28 in 3-point percentage. The Gaels are the only team in the country to rank in the top 40 in both. I love small-school game notes.
I bet 98.275% of the time to make bank. But there are occasional times I am like, huh, and just do it for my own personal enjoyment. Not sure I would say for fun but because something perplexed me. I like saying perplexed because it reminds of Lex Luthor but that's a different story and I am still obviously 12. Ah 12. Superman lunch box, PB&J with the crusts cut off and fruit roll-ups. Did it get better? Although the thought of milk makes me wanna gag. Funny how tastes change. This? I absolutely believe Gonzaga is better. But 5.5? Have to say I thought this was in Lexington. Most of the skeds say that. It's in Nashville. My bad. I am still fine.
Devils as home dogs, that we will not see often so really an auto-play. Pricy but, again, I am literally 0-174 in overtime or extra innings (I swear that number does not feel wrong). I am like the DiMaggio of awful. So it's worth it to me to take the +1 and just avoid late pain. Seriously, when I play +1 in an NHL game, I don't even watch OT or the shootout because I know for a fact what will happen. Perhaps life surprises me here.
AS Monaco is the better team, sitting 7th in Ligue 1 and Brest 11th. Do they have trap games/matches in soccer? Of course they do. Friday feels like one for Monaco after upsetting PSG last time out. But that was at home and Monaco is winless in its past two away. It has a couple guys suspended and Team USA star Folarin Balogun is out injured. Brest had been hovering near the bottom of the table due to a six-match winless run between October and mid-November but enters off B2B wins, scoring five total goals, and with at least a point in three of four. Les Pirates have at least a point in four of their previous five at Stade Francis-Le Ble.
Short slate Thursday, and the Big West opener for both. Don't put a ton of credence into preseason polls but don't pretend to know the Big West that well. CSUN was picked fifth and CS Bakersfield 10th. Way too many CS for me to keep track of. Next on "CSI: Bakersfield": An illegal tickle fight. I don't know the demographics or crime stats of Bakersfield, sorry. If I end up there in life, I made a wrong turn. I do think this closes near -200 unless I'm missing a Matadors injury, etc., but I don't see one. CSUN newcomers Joshua O'Garro and Josiah Davis top the Big West in rebounding and assists, respectively. The teams split the season series last year, each winning at home.
I no longer look at models for sides, but I'm "totals challenged" so then I do need to look. None have this approaching this sky-high number and it has been going up all morning (think it peaked here). The closest I've seen is 173 and that was an outlier number. Most are in the mid-160s and ours has 164. More and more teams are playing fast -- both these two rank Top 15 in tempo -- because it's a better recruiting tool than, say, playing at Virginia when Tony Bennett used to coach and the Wahoos often had games in the 50s. The hosts sit 204th nationally in points per possession and Cal Poly 275th. So they play fast but not necessarily efficient.
The books are still hugely overpricing the Oilers simply because of who they were the past few seasons and not really who they are this year. They should not be around -240 for this one is my point, but hey as long as we get -1 -- although it's nearing the limit of where we would. But the did win 4-0 in Seattle on Dec. 2 and the Kraken aren't healthy with Mason Marchment (11 points) out and top blueliner Brandon Montour (13 points) in doubt. They have lost three straight and totaled only two goals.
The smart play is definitely Dallas +3.5. I've never been accused of being smart. And I need the Lions to win for all my buddies being there tonight. So yeah, I definitely make picks for personal reasons other than stats-related sometimes. I was ready to play Dallas if Amon-Ra St. Brown and all those Lions O-Linemen were out, but they are all playing. Honestly surprised on ASB. Just can't trust Dallas away even if looking miles better lately. Probably a Detroit 3-point win so Cowboys +3.5 bettors win at a better price. Let's all win. But I can't do that number on the road.
Important to me to play one last game because I'm out on the NBA for a while. Not bitter, things are just awful. No chance Wednesday I play the Hawks when Jalen Johnson was ruled out like late. So what I am supposed to do? Wanted to post this last one as to explain why. Used to love, love the NBA. Now I don't recognize it. No one plays anymore. It's a bad, bad product. And this hurts me to say. Player props are a possibility but short of just crazy value I'm gonna sit out. Don't like giving away $$. Maybe Christmas as guys seem to want to play then. Lot of people think the NBA season only starts on Xmas anyways.