Chip's Picks (6 Live)
Nebraska has been a big under team all season on the back of a defense that rates in the top 10 nationally and led the Big Ten in defensive efficiency in conference play. Troy plays with one of the 10 slowest tempos in the tournament and while they shoot the three-pointer willingly the Trojans rank 219th nationally making them (33.2%). If Nebraska can force Troy to take a lot of threes and the Trojans miss approximately 65% of those shots the Cornhuskers will secure the school’s first-ever NCAA Tournament win. Speaking of, there is a vibes aspect of this pick that is eyeing the anxiety of ending the March Madness drought and wondering if maybe Nebraska isn’t a little bit tight down the stretch.
Miami (Ohio)’s spacing and shooting should translate even against a power conference defense, in part because SMU’s defensive quality down the stretch of the regular season might have been closer to the MAC than the ACC. The Mustangs ranked 16th out of 18 teams in defensive efficiency in conference play, and gave up 80 points or more in half of their ACC games. SMU does have an advantage with 7-2 center Samet Yigitoglu against Miami’s front line, and the RedHawks defense has been part of the blame for some close calls late in the year and the MAC Tournament loss. Combine those factors with fast tempo and a rowdy crowd for the in-state RedHawks in Dayton and it's easy to envision a high-scoring affair.
I think UMBC has a higher offensive ceiling in this game with a couple different options for players who can handle the offensive responsibility. DJ Armstrong, Jah’Likai King or Ace Valentine are capable of stepping up, and if Howard can’t force turnovers with its pressure defense then it might struggle to defend UMBC’s scorers in the half-court. The key to UMBC breaking that pressure and preventing Howard’s transition game is great ball security and a commitment to getting back on defense that includes selling out on the offensive glass. Since UMBC can turn this into a game on its terms, I like their odds to win.
Virginia has failed to score 66 points just twice in 33 games this season. And while one of those was a 77-51 loss to Duke in Durham just a couple weeks ago, the Blue Devils had now-injured starters Patrick Ngongba and Caleb Foster in the lineup. Duke’s defense gets credit for holding Virginia to its lowest offensive efficiency of the season, but the game script flipped the Blue Devils way quickly (leading by 15 in the first 15 minutes) and the Wahoos’ shooting was arguably the coldest it has been all of ACC play. A little bit of shooting regression, plus the absence of two key defenders opens up the chances for Virginia to have some more offensive success and clear this number.
Tommie Lloyd gets another shot at Houston in the Big 12 Tournament after losing to the Cougars by eight points in the title game last year, and the Wildcats are roaring off Jayden Bradley’s buzzer-beater in what might have been one of the best games of the entire season. The Wildcats looked so connected and in rhythm on offense against an elite Iowa State defense that it’s going to help them deal with Houston’s pressure, and the Cougars do not present the same kind of three-point threat that helped the Cyclones keep pace. Arizona won the regular season meeting in Houston by seven, so I think the Wildcats cover this number and claim their first conference tournament title since 2023.
Saint Joseph’s is 11-5 against the spread as an underdog this season, and the Hawks are currently on a seven-game run of ATS wins after beating Davidson by 12 as a 2.5-point favorite. Steve Donahue’s team has been getting better throughout the course of conference play and is 11-2 overall since a 7-point road loss to VCU in Richmond. Given the stakes of the game with VCU’s bubble status and the even more obvious urgency of competing for a conference title, it would make sense for the Rams to have some trouble running away with the game. And when you consider Saint Joseph’s recent trend of exceeding expectations, it’s hard not to think VCU could be on upset alert.
Michigan was out of sync a little bit offensively in the quarterfinals win against Ohio State, turning in the team’s lowest per-possession scoring (1.06) since the loss to Duke in Washington, D.C.. But after shaking the rust off, I think the Wolverines will be dialed in to getting revenge against a Wisconsin team that handed the regular season champs their only conference loss. The key will be making the Badgers’ shooters uncomfortable, and keeping Nick Boyd and John Blackwell from heating up on the perimeter. Michigan’s poor shooting on Friday brings some hesitation with predicting an explosive offensive output, but dialing in on defense should be part of the team’s rhythm now after having to chase around Bruce Thornton for 40 minutes.
Oklahoma had a run of getting off to good starts against top SEC teams only to wilt down the stretch, with the four-point loss to Arkansas back on Jan. 27 being one of those examples. The Sooners offensive ceiling is so high that in a neutral game state they played free and scored often, only to struggle to win those key possessions in the second half. Now Oklahoma is riding a six-game winning streak with two wins already in Nashville and playing an Arkansas team that’s been on ice for nearly a week. I’ll take the team in rhythm with a history of hot starts to do so again, and give Oklahoma a good feeling heading into the locker room at halftime.
Alabama’s SEC Tournament performances across 2024 and 2025 were a series of track meets, with an average of 181.7 points scored across those three games. Those teams, like this one in 2026, played fast with one of the best offenses in the country and had a defense that was average in terms of efficiency in SEC play. Ole Miss benefited from some cold shooting on Georgia’s part in the first half of the Rebels’ 76-72 upset win, and regression could be coming in the form of a big scoring night for the Crimson Tide. Getting to 90 points against this defense should be manageable for Nate Oats' crew.