No matter how good Manchester City are every season, for whatever reason, whether it be the universe or just poor timing in a congested schedule, they struggle against Brighton. Look at the three times they played this year and last. Brighton has won twice to the to the tune of 2-1, and drawn 2-2 over their last three meetings. On top of that, Brighton has only lost by 2+ goals once in their last 10 matches. This team has no problem parking the bus and frustrating their opponents. I do think City win this game, but it won't be easy by any means, especially after their late draw to Chelsea.

Man City have fallen behind Arsenal in the Premier League title race after drawing their last two games. They're missing several key players through injury right now, and they look especially vulnerable in defense. Brighton beat Man City 2-1 earlier this season, and they're unbeaten in their last three games against Pep Guardiola's men. The Seagulls would've covered a 1.5-goal spread in 17 out of 20 Premier League games this season, and they could do so again on Wednesday.