Virginia did finish atop the ACC standings last season, but it was accomplished with a bit of smoke and mirrors. Three of its 11 wins came in overtime. What's more, the Cavaliers are rebuilding at key positions. QB Chandler Morris has departed, along with the top two rushers and three of the main receivers. N.C. State edged the Cavs last season behind QB C.J. Bailey, who is back for more. The Wolfpack can move the chains with their ground game against a defense that was so-so against the rush. The 'Pack closed out last season on a 3-1 SU run, and the momentum should carry over.
N.C. State QB CJ Bailey is one of the best QBs in the country that you haven't heard enough about. What I like most about the Wolfpack in this game is that they have the edge at QB and WR. While Virginia has a ton of returning production along the offensive line, I like the defensive side of the ball more for NC State to be able to steal some possessions away to pull off the upset.
This is my first college football pick of hopefully hundreds this season. So glad my favorite sport is officially back! But picking Week 0 / 1 games is SO hard without much data to go on. Virginia is #1 in the conference in experience per Phil Steele's magazine and they boast a strong defense that surrendered less than 20 points per game last season. At the same time, I'm not sure I'm expecting fireworks from the Cavaliers' offense with new QB Beau Pribula. While NC State's offense might be potent as the season goes along, I don't expect to see a 35-31 game like last year. Give me the home team in a bit of a dogfight. Virginia 23, NC State 17.
This game was moved from Brazil to Virginia, and the line jumped 2 points. I think that's a bit of an overreaction. I have these teams rated pretty close, and UVA doesn't have a huge home-field edge. I also think the Cavs are a bit overvalued coming off a 11-3 season. NC State is replacing a lot of production, but I think the Wolfpack have a more talented roster and are an interesting team in the ACC. Also, keep an eye on NC State QB CJ Bailey. He closed last season strong and could take a big step forward as a junior. I see this game going down to the wire, so I'll take the 5.5.
