The military academies are just short of a sure thing in bowls. They have won outright nearly three-fourths over the past two decades-plus. The spread might seem daunting, but Cincy enters on a four-game SU slide and without a horde of key players, notably QB Brandon Sorsby and RB Evan Pryor. Not only is the entire starting secondary absent but some backups as well. Navy does not throw often yet is effective when doing so. Offensively, these aren't your grandad's Midshipmen. They rank 35th for points in FBS, so Navy can score enough for a cover even with the hook.

Cincy's season disintegrated in November after a 7-1 start had fans dreaming of the playoffs. After the defense had collapsed in a 45-23 loss to TCU at the end of November, the Bearcats settled for this Liberty bid before the portal took a chunk out of the roster, specifically QB Brendan Sorsby, who will be replaced in Memphis by sr. Brady Lichtenberg, who has taken limited snaps in his career (and just 6 pass attempts this season). Defections elsewhere on the roster, too, in stark contrast to Navy, will a full contingent including decorated QB Blake Horvath ending his career. Much like depleted UConn vs. Army and its option at the Fenway Bowl, the Bearcats look at a disadvantage. Play Navy (Liberty Bowl)

I always like betting the academies in bowl games because if nothing else you know they are going to be motivated and try like heck. Cincinnati lost its last four games and I expect some key opt outs for the Bearcats. Give me Blake Horvath and the Midshipmen as small underdogs.