There’s a few reasons to back Alabama. None have to do with Kirby Smart’s history against Bama nor the regular-season meeting, a 3-point road win by the Crimson Tide. Georgia has improved markedly through 2025, but its ability to pressure the quarterback and defend in the secondary are legitimate issues. Even if the Dawgs dominate on the ground, the Tide have the ability to strike quickly, particularly if behind late. The SEC Championship Game is a do-or-die scenario for Bama, which must win to play in the College Football Playoff. Georgia's bid is locked; it’s worst case is hosting a first-round game against a low seed instead of a bye. Take the Tide straight up; SECCG has not been decided by one point since 1997.

This line continues to move in Alabama favor and says a similar feel to last night’s UNT/Tulane game. The Crimson Tide have dominated this series, winners of 10 of the last 11 meetings. Gunner Stockton is in better form than Ty Simpson currently and the three running backs in the backfield for the Bulldogs have been finding success of late. Alabama lost to the Sooners and were outplayed by Auburn despite getting that victory. The Crimson Tide also really struggled on third down against Auburn, 4/17, which can’t happen against this Bulldogs defense. Georgia and Kirby Smart have progressed as the season went on and are out for revenge.

After Kirby Smart's first Georgia team went 8-5 in 2016, he's gone 107-8 against teams not named Bama...but 1-7 against the Crimson Tide! Bama has also had the Bulldogs' number in SEC title games, with the lone loss to Smart coming in the 2021 national title game...after the Tide had won another SEC championship game from the Bulldogs. Unlike a year ago when Kalen DeBoer's side had its problems away from Tuscaloosa, this Bama edition proved it could win on the road, including at Athens over the Bulldogs in late September. Georgia's chances are minimized on Saturday if QB Gunner Stockton can't perform better than last week vs. Georgia Tech, when completing only 11 passes for a mere 70 yards. Play Alabama (SEC at Atlanta)

Alabama was able to take advantage of Georgia still trying to figure things out at the earlier juncture of the season. Right now, QB Gunnar Stockton is playing more consistent ball than Ty SImpson. Alabama also is entering this game a bit banged up, all of which will help the Bulldogs get their revenge and cover.