First off, I'm super-angry that I got so involved in Discord chat that I didn't get to post Kansas +11.5. Absolutely played that personally. Which may look stupid in an hour. So I will encapsulate what I think of Texas generally: Urban Cowboy movie (second-best ever soundtrack after Footloose), dust, cowboy hats/boots, gun racks and more dust. I personally find that utterly unappealing, but I get the Wild Wild West allure. This is the Horns' season and normally I'd just ban this to my personal ESPN Ocho or whatever, but I do wanna watch this. I had been waiting for 3. Now that it's there, I'll pay 20 cents for +3.5. Although I kinda think UT either wins outright or gets hook'emd. #HookEm

Sure, the Aggies have feasted on the bottom half of the SEC. And sure they beat Notre Dame before the Irish got rolling. But A&M is a confident team as it visits Austin. The Aggies offense is a bad matchup for a Longhorns defense that has given up 35.3 points per game over the last four games because of injuries and issues on the back end. Meanwhile the A&M defense ranks second in the country in sacks per game (3.55). That doesn't bode well for the Texas offensive line, which has had major issues this season (though has played better recently, Georgia notwithstanding).

Whew! The Aggies are still unbeaten but have cut it close more than once, especially two weeks ago vs. South Carolina, and earlier escapes at Notre Dame and Arkansas. Flying so close to the flame, A&M could eventually get burned, and cannot again afford QB Marcel Reed to make mistakes as his two picks vs. the Gamecocks on November 15 nearly proved very costly. Texas salvages its season with a win and keeps its remote playoff chances alive (there will need to be lots of dominoes falling the Longhorns' way, but not impossible). The defense will need to prevent too many big plays by Reed, but Arch Manning has played his best games in November, and the Horns offense is starting to click.

Hold onto your hats! Note that in A&M's three greatest challenges (vs Notre Dame, Arkansas, and South Carolina), the scorelines totaled 81, 87, and 61 points...well above Friday's 52.5 in Austin. The big-play A&M offense, with QB Marcel Reed having completed 43 passes of 20 or more yards, might feel like it's shooting fish in a barrel against a Longhorns D that has allowed 37 such long-gainers thru the air. Only once has A&M scored fewer than 31 points. On the other hand, Arch Manning and the Texas offense finally seem in gear, as the 52 points scored last week vs. Arkansas suggests. This one could go back-and-forth in Austin! Play Texas A&M-Texas Over

The Longhorns defense has struggled on the back end over the last four games, giving up 38, 31, 35 and 37 points over the last four games. On Friday that defense will be missing linebacker Ty'Anthony Smith (targeting) for the first half and playing with an injured Anthony Hill (hand). That's bad news against an A&M offense that is built to take advantage of open space behind the linebackers. Meanwhile Arch Manning is finally getting some protection, and the Longhorns offense is playing its best ball of the season (35.3 points per game over the last four games). This feels like a 30-27 or 33-30 game.