The Ns. 3 and 4 defenses in FBS, plus almost certain rain -- with possibly high winds and snow mixed in. That's an ideal formula for an Under, even with this low total. Oregon's offense is potent, but the Ducks are coming off a 21-7 win in inclement conditions. They have not exceed that point output in three of the last four games. Iowa pitched a shutout three games ago and held last week's opponent to a field goal. Expect both offenses to stick to the ground so everyone can repair to the warmth of the locker room as quickly as possible.

Oregon hasn't looked like the supreme juggernaut it had been earlier in the season. However, they still have the ability to score and have tremendous athletes all over the field. Iowa's one dimensional offense will be the reason why they will struggle to keep themselves within the number vs Oregon.

I understand Iowa is always dangerous as a home dog and they almost upset Indiana earlier this year. The difference for me is the spot. The Hoosiers were coming off a big win over Illinois and in a letdown spot the following week at Iowa. Oregon is coming off a bye after a lackluster win over Wisconsin and should be better prepared to avoid the upset. And remember, Indiana was -9.5 in that matchup, while the Ducks are laying less than a touchdown. I expect a razor focused Oregon team on Saturday after a sloppy effort against Wisconsin at home before the bye. Look for Oregon to pull away and cover the six points.