This total has gone up but Texas has been more of an under team this whole season. The Longhorns have been allowing 14.6 points per game and stopping their opponents’ rushing attacks, holding them to under 81 yards. Vanderbilt’s defense has been strong as well, holding opponents under 19 points per game and one of the better run-stopping defenses in the conference. With all the inconsistencies with the Longhorns offense, possession could come at a premium.

With the level of uncertainty surrounding the QB position for the Texas Longhorns, the one element of their team that can be trusted and is a known commodity, is their defense. Vandy's defense stepped up in a major way last week vs Mizzou, and I like how this team is able to rise to the moment and opponent. Expect this one to come down to under a field goal.

Vanderbilt won last week, but its offense struggled mightily against a good Missouri defensive line. Texas' is much better and will give the Commodores problems. I expect Arch Manning to play for Texas, but I don't know how much it matters. His OL can't block for anybody.

If Texas loses, the season is over for UT. So really fun to see the likes of basketball schools Indiana and Vandy rise up. But the one thing the Commodores do well is run and that's the one thing the Longhorns do well: Stop the run. I'm hammering Texas in a must-win spot and I don't care if Arch Manning is playing. Yet part of me would smile with a loss ... just won't tell the wife about the $$ part.

This is play of the week material for me. The line may be low without Arch Manning but remember than Matthew Caldwell is a 5th year senior and has played at four different schools. Texas has played a much more difficult schedule is battle-tested. Vandy got walloped in their biggest road test – at Alabama (30-14). Look for the Longhorns’ defense to put the clamps on Diego Pavia and end any Heisman conversation. Texas 24, Vanderbilt 13.