Buffalo holds major edges in nearly every major statistical category, particularly in the critical pass defense matchup, where Bowling Green ranks 130th nationally (8.6 YPA allowed). Bowling Green allows scores on 91.3% of red zone possessions, which is among the worst rates in college football. The Bulls score on 75% of their red zone trips, setting up a favorable scoring environment. With my computer model projecting Buffalo as a 3-point favorite and the market pricing Bowling Green as a 2.5-point favorite, there's a 5.5-point swing in Buffalo's direction. I like the road team in this spot.