Mississippi State hasn’t beaten an SEC opponent since 2023. Not saying that they’re going to win this game outright but they have a shot with Texas’ inconsistencies, especially on offense. The Longhorns are playing their fourth road game in a row and may have more struggle offensively with the loud environment in Starkville. Mississippi State has shown that they can hang around with anyone, 6-1 ATS, and will need to limit the Longhorns running game and make Arch Manning uncomfortable.

The Longhorns are Under bettors' best friend. The offense has massive issues blocking, running and passing, while the defense is one of the best in the country (11.3 points per game allowed). Meanwhile the Bulldogs have been solid defensively at home this season, giving up just 16.0 points per game. In addition, they have been excellent in punt coverage (18th in the country), which will be key since Texas punt returner Ryan Niblett has scored a touchdown and set up 10 other points over the last two games. This should be a low-scoring defensive struggle, along the lines of 16-13, with one team likely trying to run out the clock. Two units on the Under.

The offensive line is a disaster for the Longhorns. As a result, running the ball and protecting the quarterback have been major issues. And when quarterback Arch Manning has gotten enough time to throw, he often hears footsteps (which is understandable given the hits he has taken) and misses wide-open receivers or the receivers drop catchable passes. (See last week's Kentucky game.) Meanwhile the Bulldogs are improved since last year and nearly knocked off both No. 15 Tennessee (41-34 in overtime) and Florida (23-21). Last year Mississippi State hung on gamely in a loss in Austin against a much better Longhorns team. This year, the Bulldogs get a breakthrough win, ending a 15-game SEC losing streak.