Michigan is just 1-2 on the road, with the lone with coming by 3 at Nebraska. The Wolverines are missing a couple key offensive players due to injury and should expect a fight from a rival Spartans club desperate for hope following a 3-0 start that has faded into four straight losses.

I'm already on Sparty +14.5 so if Michigan gets to 32+ points, I'll be concerned for that as well. And I see Eric Cohen took the Over while ripping Jonathan Smith. Hey, pal, worry about your own Arizona coach who might get fired. All in good fun, Eric definitely knows his stuff. Just not this as Smith isn't going anywhere. Eric is right in that the MSU defense hasn't been very good. But this is a rivalry game in 31 degree fall night weather, which to an Arizona alum probably seems alien. UM might get to 30, but I struggle to see more short of special teams/defensive TDs. The Spartans will slow this down. Not a score predictor but a lot of 27-17s out there.

In case someone is out to get me, you know where I will be Saturday at 7:30 ET. Two years out from Mel Tucker and not sure MSU is in any worse spot than Michigan. Obviously, Sparty can't compete most years for the top talent but other than Jim Harbaugh, MSU has coached up its guys better in recent years. And I'd rather have Jonathan Smith, who accomplished a little as a HC, than Sherrone Moore, a Harbaugh lackey who already served a suspension this year and frankly has done zero otherwise to earn the job. Sparty will surprise U-M once in a while but this probably ain't it. But it shouldn't be a blowout. Not really how these teams play (also lean Under).

I think it's fair to say that Michigan State's defense stinks. They've given up at least 38 points to 5 of their last 6 opponents. They haven't played in a game with less than 51 total points since a 23-6 opener vs. Western Michigan. Even the Wolverines' offense can score early and often against this bad defense. The Jonathan Smith-era in East Lansing will be shorter than expected. Michigan 38, Michigan State 20