This is the first time Vanderbilt has been a favorite against an SEC opponent since 1978. The Tigers have won nine straight against Vanderbilt, covering four of the last six as well. However, the Tigers will be without White Weeks this afternoon and they’ve struggled against the run and haven’t been efficient in the redzone. Vanderbilt had an extra week to prepare for this one and with Deigo Pavia’s ability to run and the playoff atmosphere, should give the ‘Dores an extra boost.

What's interesting about this matchup is how the LSU tigers are underdogs vs Vandy. But when you watch the games, you can understand how the oddsmakers came to that conclusion. And to be honest, it's the main reason why I can back them in this spot: QB Diego Pavia. He's simply playing better right now than is Garrett Nussmeier, and that alone is worth the 2.5 points.

Vandebilt has two weeks to prepare for this revenge game. They have a +2.3 net yards per play while playing the 24th-hardest schedule. LSU has a +0.9 NYPP and has played the 15th-toughest schedule. Vanderbilt's offensive line has been among the SEC's best in pass protection, conceding only 0.67 sacks per game. The Tigers have struggled with points per quality drive (ranked 124th nationally), suffering from critical red zone turnovers. The Commodores have significantly improved their scoring margin, offensive efficiency, third-down performance, and defensive consistency compared to last year's squad. With an impressive 82.5 QBR (ranked 14th), Diego Pavia and company look to end their 10-game skid against LSU.