South Alabama's lone win was the season opener vs. lower-tier Morgan State, and USA has lost its past three by 14 points each. Bad defensive club allowing 31.8 PPG. Troy (2-2) is off a bye week. It has won six of the last seven games against South Alabama, including three straight at home. Hey, every little bit matters and Troy has one of the nation's top punters in Evan Crenshaw with 11 punts of 50-plus yards. Troy had one 50-yard punt last season.

Troy's strong defensive play in this matchup is crucial for covering the spread. They allow 5.3 yards per play (56th in FBS) compared to South Alabama's 5.7 yards (77th). Troy's scoring defense gives up 24.0 points per game (55th nationally), while South Alabama surrenders 34.5 points, ranking 116th. South Alabama struggles particularly in run defense, ranking 117th by allowing 204.8 rushing yards per game. Troy's ability to apply pressure will challenge South Alabama's QB, as evidenced by 14 tackles for loss in their previous matchup. Before last year's defeat, Troy had won six consecutive meetings over South Alabama. With two weeks to prepare and a desire for revenge, I like the home team in this spot.