A lot of models say the wrong team is favored here, and I'm wondering that myself with Sam Houston at 0-4 and NMSU at 2-2 -- ours has the Aggies winning by two. It doesn't appear they are missing anyone of note. Sam Houston is converting 13.7% on 3rd down so far, lowest through four games by any FBS team dating to 2015. Sam Houston has both the lowest scoring offense (16.3 ppg) and highest scoring defense in CUSA (42.8 PPG). It is 0-3 away and being outscored by an average of about 30 points. Explain to me like I'm 5 why the Bearkats are favored. New Mexico State can match its win total from 2024 with a victory.