This pick boils down to the the availability of RBs. For Pitt, Desmond Reid has been scratched. He's the Panthers premier ball-carrier and mixes in receiving as well. For Louisville, Isaac Brown and Duke Watson are listed as game-time decisions, but indications are that both trusted yard-eaters wiill answer the bell. QB Eli Holstein is effective in the aerial game. Given Reid's absence, the Cardinals might gear its defense toward stopping the pass, which would put a larger burden on Holstein. Most other books list this game at 3.5, and it's worth paying a little more juice to erase the hook.

Louisville holds a +1.4 net yards per play differential while facing the 71st toughest schedule. In contrast, the Panthers have a +2.0 net yards per play differential against the 83rd hardest schedule. Under Pat Narduzzi, Pittsburgh is 13-8 SU and 14-7 ATS following a bye week, which includes an impressive 6-1 ATS at home and 12-2 ATS against ACC foes. Louisville has a record of 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in its first road game of late. In their loss against West Virginia two weeks ago, Pittsburgh committed 14 penalties for 118 yards. With extra preparation time and a desire for revenge from last year's defeat, I will gladly take the points in what should be a close game.