We're still not sure how much this FSU renaissance has to do with the schedule (one surprise attack on Bama, plus two lightweights) or a sign of real resurgence by the Noles, who among other things also lead the nation in total offense at 628 ypg. FSU also travels away from Tallahassee for the first time this week after losing all five away from Doak Campbell in that dreary 2024. Meanwhile, one difference for UVa seems to be North Texas transfer QB Chandler Morris, who has bounced around the college landscape before landing for his last college year with the Hoos piloting an offense ranking not far behind FSU nationally and ranking 5th at better than 564 ypg while scoring nearly 46 ppg. Play Virginia.

This is the best Virginia has looked under coach Tony Elliott, whose retention for a fourth season came as surprise to many college football observers following an 11-23 mark in first three seasons during which the Cavaliers consistently appeared unprepared and undisciplined. Well-traveled QB Chandler Morris and a decent set of weapons have given them a potent offense, but they've beaten three weak opponents and crumbled the first time they faced adversity, blowing a double-digit lead against NC State. Barring a major letdown ahead of its date with rival Miami, we expect Florida State to ward off an early surge from the home team and clear the number.

This is a fairly big number, but I fully expect this game to turn into a track meet. Neither team is particularly strong on the defensive side of the ball, though FSU has improved drastically year over year. Offensively, these are two of the premier teams in the ACC. Look for a shootout on Friday night. ...

Where the Seminoles have looked like the old Seminoles this season has been on the offensive side of the ball. They are putting the ball in the paint at a high clip. However, where they've really grown over last year is on defense. So while this game may not be a 20-point blowout victory, their defense is good enough to help them cover this touchdown point spread for sure against a very good Virginia squad.

I believe Florida State is on upset alert Friday. Our model has the Noles by 3, but Sagarin has UVA as slightly better. Virginia is 2-12 in the series when FSU is ranked in the AP Top 10 with both wins coming at home in years that ended in 5. Checking calendar ... yep 2025. It's the first road game of the year for Florida State, which has some injury concerns. The Wahoos can score the ball and have rushed for at least 200 yards in three straight games, but it's a matter of whether they can stop anyone. Perhaps they catch the Noles looking ahead to Miami on Oct. 4.