Vaguely familiar for Michigan State, which also started an unimpressive 3-0 last season before the bottom dropped out of the campaign, losing seven of the last nine...five of those by 21 points or more. The pointspread losing streak is now at eight even after the three wins to begin 2025. To this point, the Spartans bear little resemblance to Jonathan Smith's previous teams at Oregon State that continually punched above their weight; playmakers are still hard to identify around QB Aidan Chiles. We know Lincoln Riley's SC offense is potent, but the defense has stepped it up lately in the second season under DC D'Anton Lynn, with ballhawks in the secondary already recording six interceptions, including a pair of pick-sixes. Play USC

I was waiting to see if this number hit 54.5 but it didn't happen. My guess is it goes up on Saturday, so I'll take the 55.5. Michigan State's pass defense got lit up by Boston College and the Spartans have allowed 64 points in their last two games. I do think Michigan State's offense will put up at least 20. That should be good enough with USC doing most of the heavy lifting here.

Michigan State's secondary was torn to shreds at home a couple of weeks ago by Boston College. No offense to BC, but they don't have nearly the kind of weapons in the passing game the Trojans do. USC has made a habit of pouring it on against teams this season, and I have the Trojans scoring 40+ here.

Dating back to last year, here are the combined point totals of USC games at home: 48 (when they shut out Utah State), 59, 63, 62, 48, 84, 86, 79. Until proven otherwise, the Trojans over is a must play at the LA Coliseum. Michigan State has showed signs of life this year on offense and will be good for 20+ at least in what should be a fun game between two offensive minds: Lincoln Riley and Jonathan Smith. USC 40, Michigan State 24.

Michigan State, though 3-0 SU, has not inspired a boatload of confidence. The Spartans beat still-winless Western Michigan by 17, B.C. in double-overtime and FCS member Youngstown State by 17. In the opposite corner, USC has blitzed three foes by a combined 115 points. Injuries are keeping MSU coaches awake at night, chiefly to top RB Makhi Frazier and WR Nick Marsh. Each is iffy; others are doubtful or out. Trojans QB Jayden Maiava has gone interception-free. The USC defense ranks second in sacks and tackles for losses. One more advantage for the Trojans, as if they needed another: a late kickoff in L.A. -- 11 p.m. (ET).