It's been a brutal bowl run for the ACC with just 2 wins in 12, and unless getting a favorable number with either Syracuse or Louisville in their games, no spread covers, either. VPI has lost 14 starters to the portal or injury, and apparently goes again at QB with frosh Pop Watson with Kyron Drones still out. Meanwhile, the Gophers are arguably the nation's most-successful bowl performer, winning seven straight the last five of those with HC PJ Fleck, with spread covers in those as well. Minnesota hasn't been hit as hard by the portal, and New Hampshire transfer QB Max Brosmer has had a solid season, passing for 2617 yards with 17 TDs and only 5 picks. Play Minnesota (Duke's Mayo Bowl)

Laying nearly double-digits with a favorite whose offense is hardly explosive carries risk. However, there is enough evidence to justify it. Chiefly, the difference in impact from injuries and the transfer portal is vast. Minnesota’s roster remains largely intact while Virginia Tech's is down two-dozen players, notably its QB and three starters in the secondary. The Gophers’ formidable defense ranks 10th in the FBS in points allowed and should keep Tech out of the end zone. Gophers coach P.J. Fleck is 5-0 straight-up in bowl games, and Minnesota has won seven bowls in a row, which indicates the Gophers take them seriously. They enter on a 7-1 ATS streak this season as well. In P.J., we trust.

P.J. Fleck has been an excellent coach in the postseason, boasting a 6-2 overall record in bowl games. He's also got a Minnesota team that was rated better than Virginia Tech during the season and the Hokies are going to be without handfuls of key players that helped them get to 6-6 on the year.