Miami is down one receiver, Isaiah Horton, who went with the Crimson Tide in the transfer portal and Xavier Restrepo, who's preparing for the NFL Draft. Iowa State’s defense is holding the opposing quarterback to a 52.8% completion rate and less than 25 points per game on the season. The Cyclones will need to control the clock to keep Cam Ward and this high-powered Miami offense in check. The Hurricanes are only 6-5-1 ATS on the season as well.

The Hurricanes entered the bowl season with a 10-2 record, the No. 1 in points with 44.2 a game, and total yards with 538 per game. Iowa State comes off a game where they got waxed by Arizona State 45-19. Cam Ward is staying for his team's last game which is a breath of fresh air amid most things going on in the bowls. The problem with the Hurricanes is that they don't cover very often. Just 6-6 ATS. Their defense isn't very good. But the number is short enough to sweat the defensive play in a trade-off for the offense. Miami to cover.

Miami's QB Cam Ward is looking to boost his draft status and will be more than ready to put on an aerial show against the Cyclones. We know Iowa State struggles to get home and he'll have all day to throw. We also know the Canes defense can't truly be trusted to take a side on the spread, which is why I like them to just win straight up.