Do I think Bowling Green is the better team and wins here? Yep, but not double digits better than Arky State. Three Falcons named first-team All-MAC may not play as they are in the portal led by RB Terion Stewart (160-890-6) and top tackler Joseph Sipp. I say may not play but you hear noise that they might. Not sure how that works since they signed with other schools. A-State appears to have lost just one defensive back starter in terms of the portal or opt outs. The Red Wolves are 5-0 when allowing teams to complete fewer than 64% of their passes, and BGSU has been at 64% or under seven times this year.

This spread has soared from just over a TD into double-digits. The lone impetus appears to be stellar TE Harold Fannin Jr. electing to play after speculation had him sitting. Should a tight end impact the line this much? Though Arkansas State has a defense made of tissue, let's trust veteran coach Butch Jones to whip up an effective game plan. His teams are 6-2 straight-up in bowls. (Bowling Green's Scott Loeffler, conversely, is 0-2.) The underdogs can score, having averaged 30.3 ppg. The Over is tempting, but a spot that has climbed above a TD-plus-FG is too alluring to pass up.