Illinois has hit a Big Ten road block losing consecutive games to Oregon and Minnesota. Coming out of a bye week can be even more difficult for a team that has reversed course from a strong start. Look for Michigan State to be the looser team and hang around against an Illinois team that has scored twenty one points or fewer in three straight games.

My biggest college football win of the season was fading Michigan State with a surprisingly light line against the Spartans late last month at Michigan -- and this feels like more of the same. MSU has lost five of six, and I'm not clear why it isn't around a 7-point dog. QB Aidan Chiles has more picks than TD passes on the year. Sparty also could be down two starters in the secondary. Illinois isn't that great, but it's the home finale and the Illini are 5-1 in Champaign.