Iowa State seems like the most obvious play on the board. There’s been reverse line movement in favor of the Jayhawks, with the line continuing to move in their favor despite 88% of the spread bets on Iowa State. The Cyclones suffered their first loss of the season last week and Kansas came close to beating their rival Wildcats. Kansas is coming off a bye and have had plenty of time to prepare for this one.

Kansas has settled down after a rough start to the season and now catch an Iowa State team reeling off its first loss of the season. Lance Leipold has been a 3-point underdog to Iowa State in each of the last two years and won both meetings outright, and after watching the competitiveness in a two-point loss to Kansas State I think this is a spot where the Jayhawks could win outright again.

This game will be played at Arrowhead Stadium, though it's credited as a Kansas home game. The Cyclones suffered a crushing home loss to Texas Tech last week even though their play the last few weeks had been reason for concern. Against a 2-6 Kansas team, I expect Iowa State to bounce back. Under Matt Campbell, the Cyclones are 65% ATS after a SU loss – covering by more than five points per game. Plus, Iowa State is 7-0 SU/ATS in their last seven road games. Iowa State 34, Kansas 21.