The Wolverines scrapped their way to a much-needed win over rival Michigan State last week. But barring a remarkable defensive effort combined with a letdown spot from the nation's top-ranked team, it's difficult to see them keeping pace with the Ducks for four quarters.

Two stout defenses here, to be sure. Yet Oregon averages 35 ppg, which is just 10 points shy of this number, and 467 yards. First-year QB Dillon Gabriel has gotten past his transition period and is performing like a Heisman Trophy candidate. He can pick on a secondary minus injured CB Will Johnson, an All-America player. The Wolverines largely eschew the pass but, if they drop behind by a few scores, might have no choice but to throw. That would help bump scoring above the total.

It's hard to believe Michigan is a two touchdown underdog at home, but here we are. If I were setting this line, I would have likely put it at -16.5. Oregon is starting to click, and Dillon Gabriel is now the betting favorite to win the Heisman. What this game comes down to for me is Michigan's offense (or lack thereof). I expect the Ducks to have plenty of success, but on the other side, I'll be shocked if Michigan scores more than 14 points. I see this as a 30-10 or 35-14 type of win for Oregon.

Though Oregon has scored 24 or more points in 24 straight games, I'm counting on their defense to hit this pick. The only two teams who have scored more than two touchdowns vs. the Ducks this season are Boise State and Ohio State, two prime College Football Playoff contenders. On the other hand, Michigan has allowed more than 28 points only once (31 to Texas) so it's not as if their defense is all that much inferior. The Ducks win but style points won't matter on Saturday. Oregon 27, Michigan 13.