Penn State has won all six of their games but they've only covered two and this week at Wisconsin despite two weeks off might be their toughest opponent yet. Wisconsin has won and covered their last three following a loss at USC by 17, the team that Penn State beat 2 weeks ago. Alabama went into Wisconsin and beat them 42-10 early in a season. Drew Aller threw for 391 yards at USC but he also threw a three interceptions. Penn State's offense averages 471 yards a game and the defense ranks eighth allowing 262 yards a game. Penn State has won and covered the last five meetings dating back to 2012. Penn State covers.

Penn State has played a slightly tougher schedule (No. 27 vs. No. 35). Under James Franklin, Penn State is 3-6 straight-up following BYE weeks and 1-3 SU in Big Ten road games. His 41.7% against the spread rate is primary fade bait. In 2018, Michigan State defeated Penn State, and in 2019, Minnesota also secured a victory against them. In 2021, Illinois triumphed over Penn State after a historic nine overtimes. Expect a tough defensive battle between two physical Big Ten teams. Wisconsin’s strong run game and home-field advantage will keep it competitive. They also have much better special teams. After six straight wins to start the season, the Nittany Lions may not have wanted a week off. Penn State faces Ohio State next week.

The Badgers have played much better in recent weeks, but the performances coincide with a serious step down in competition. Penn State's a different beast, particularly along the lines of scrimmage where I believe it'll hold a significant edge here.

This line feels about a touchdown too high for me. Penn State's goal is to win and stay healthy before a huge home game against Ohio State next week. Wisconsin's offense has shown signs of life lately, but their defense has been awesome of late, surrendering only 16 combined points over their last three games. Expect a slugfest in Madison with two of the Big Ten's top-six defenses. Penn State 24, Wisconsin 16.