If Mizzou were close to full strength, this many points would be irresistible to take. But the Tigers' foremost RB, Nate Noel, appears to be out, while QB Brady Cook is questionable. Alabama has produced three straight duds -- two losses and a narrow win -- so this pick counts on a course correction. The Crimson Tide's so-so rush defense likely will not be exploited with Noel scratched. Like Bama, Missouri is hardly coming in on a high, having lost by 31 to Texas A&M a week ago. The Tide will plow through the rest of their schedule in must-win mode, and players surely want to show the selection committee they are over the post-Saban blues.

I'm concerned about the health of Missouri quarterback Brady Cook, who made a surprising return last week to help his team beat Auburn. The team did next to nothing with his backup, veteran Drew Pyne, which concerns me if Cook goes down again. Alabama's offense hasn't been great since the Georgia game and Missouri has the third best defense statistically in the SEC. The Crimson Tide bounce back but it won't be overly pretty for either side. Alabama 27, Missouri 17.