Arkansas is Mississippi State's first unranked opponent in a month. The Bulldogs covered against Texas, Georgia and Texas A&M with freshman quarterback Michael Van Buren playing quietly effective football. Mississippi State has a +2 turnover margin this season, which bodes well against a Razorbacks team that is next-to-last in the SEC in turnover margin, at -5. Give me the Bulldogs.

SEC sources are keeping their eyes on the situation with Arkansas, where having Bobby Petrino by your side in the foxhole might not be the best idea for HC Sam Pittman. Petrino, now serving as the Arkansas OC, has a history of burning brightly before fading, though some in Razorback-land wonder if that's coming a bit sooner than usual after last week's 34-10 beating administered by LSU. The Arkansas offense looks a bit flummoxed at the moment, and can't ignore three decent, spread-covering efforts vs. heavyweight opposition (Texas, Georgia, A&M) in a row by MSU and its new QB, Michael Van Buren, who has passed for 6 TDs the past two weeks and looks an upgrade from Baylor transfer Blake Shapen. Play MSU

Wasn't on my radar but a star offensive player on each side is expected out: Arkansas running back Ja'Quinden Jackson (592 yards rushing, 10 TDs; 11 catches for 125 yards) and Mississippi State WR Mario Craver (16 catches, 355 yards, three TDs; punt return TD). Our model has 53 points being scored, and that's with those two projected to play. I don't think the model has become sentient yet to know everything, but I did see Linda Hamilton in the office ...